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Joey Pollizze takes a deep dive into three blind running back resumes to compare their 2023 stats and to see if the difference in their 2024 fantasy football projected ADP can be explained.
Fantasy football drafts won't take place for a couple of months, but it's never too early to get into the fantasy mindset after a wild offseason. Many star running backs like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones found new homes while Joe Mixon was traded to the Houston Texans.
Those moves will certainly affect where each player will go next season. Luckily, on Underdog Fantasy, we can see exactly where all running backs are going in fantasy drafts currently.
So, let's analyze where certain running backs are going in drafts by blindly comparing two backs and their 2023 season. Let's dive in and see if you can guess each running back based on their 2023 resume.
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Blind Resume No. 1
| Player | UD-ADP | RB-Rank | CPG | RPG | 2023 Rush Yards | Y/A | TPG | RPG | RYPG | Rush TD | Total TD | PPR PPG | 2023 Finish |
| A | 46 | 13 | 14.6 | 60.3 | 905 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 17.2 | 8 | 9 | 13.3 | RB19 |
| B | 80 | 22 | 15.6 | 72.5 | 1,015 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.14 | 8.4 | 13 | 13 | 14.8 | RB17 |
UD-ADP = Underdog ADP RB-Rank = Current RB Rank on Underdog CPG = Carries Per Game RPG = Rushing Yards Per Game
2023 Rush Yards = Running Back Total Yards Y/A = Yards Per Attempt TPG = Targets Per Game RPG = Receptions Per Game
Y/R = Yards Per Reception RYPG = Receiving Yards Per Game Rush TD = RB Rushing TD Total TD = Rushing + Receiving TD
PPR PPG = Full-PPR PPG 2023 Finish = Running Back Rank 2023 PPR
We have two running backs here, player A and player B, who are at different points in their careers. Player A is on the younger side, and the 2024 season will be his third NFL season, while player B is on the older side and entering his sixth NFL season. However, the latter had a more successful year in 2023.
Player B finished the season with more carries per game, rush yards per game, total rush yards, and touchdowns in one less game in 2023. He also finished two spots better than him at the running back position in fantasy and averaged 1.5 fantasy points more per game.
Player A didn't necessarily have a terrible year, but player B was the better fantasy player in 2023. Yet, he is going 2-3 rounds later in best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy. Player B seems like the better value pick in drafts this upcoming year, especially since he plays on a better offense and runs behind a top-five offensive line.
Blind Resume No. 1 Reveal
Could you guess which player is which from the stats above? If not, player A is Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III, and player B is Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery.
It makes sense why the ADP is what they are right now. Walker is the primary back in Seattle and should get all the early-down work out of the backfield. Montgomery, on the other hand, will likely lose a ton of touches to Jahmyr Gibbs -- who figures to have a much bigger role in Year 2.
What round are you drafting David Montgomery? 👀 pic.twitter.com/4dWS6ijVRj
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) April 19, 2024
However, Montgomery won't just be going away. He will still be involved heavily in the run game and should have the opportunity to score plenty of touchdowns. The Lions running back was the better fantasy player last year while appearing in one fewer game. He's certainly the better value pick at his current ADP than Walker.
Blind Resume No. 2
| Player | UD-ADP | RB-Rank | CPG | RPG | 2023 Rush Yards | Y/A | TPG | RPG | RYPG | Rush TD | Total TD | PPR PPG | 2023 Finish |
| A | 8 | 3 | 12.6 | 57.4 | 976 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 28.6 | 4 | 8 | 14.5 | RB9 |
| B | 14 | 6 | 16.9 | 74.1 | 741 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 15.3 | 7 | 8 | 15.6 | RB33 |
We have two running backs here who will be going super early in fantasy drafts this upcoming season. Basically, the question we will be answering here is which one do you prefer at their draft price?
Player A is on the younger side and appeared in all 17 games for his team in 2023. While he lost plenty of carries to his backup throughout the year, he made up for it in the passing game, where he was more involved as the season went on. He totaled 29 catches for 279 yards and two touchdowns over the last seven weeks of the season, including a seven-catch, 100-yard performance in Week 18.
As for player B, he dealt with a couple of injuries during the year, which hurt his fantasy finish. His RB33 was not great, but his 15.6 fantasy points per game was the 12th highest at the position. He only played in 10 games in 2023 and missed seven games due to injury. So, injuries do remain a concern for him heading into the 2024 season.
Blind Resume No. 2 Reveal
This one might have been a little bit easier to guess based on their stats and where they are currently going in drafts. If you didn't, though, player A is Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, and player B is Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor.
On draft day, many fantasy managers might have to decide between Robinson or Taylor later in the first round or early in the second round. Both are great options and have the upside to finish as the No. 1 overall running back. The Colts running back was able to accomplish that feat in his second professional season, and now the Falcons back will enter his second season in 2024.
we got to see Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor together for one-third of a game last year
I get that AR siphons from Taylor’s TD ceiling in the red zone compared to Gardner Minshew
but AR will have them in the red zone more often than Minshew
and given the punishment AR… pic.twitter.com/rYjke8wsGj
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) April 21, 2024
Taylor is certainly more of a risky pick, considering he has missed 13 combined games over the past two years. Nonetheless, if he manages to stay healthy, he would be a steal at his price. He averaged 19.1 PPR fantasy points per game over the final four weeks of the season. Robinson might have a higher ceiling with head coach Arthur Smith not around anymore, but it will be hard to pass on the Colts running back because we know what to expect from him when healthy.
Blind Resume No. 3
| Player | UD-ADP | RB-Rank | CPG | RPG | 2023 Rush Yards | Y/A | TPG | RPG | RYPG | Rush TD | Total TD | PPR PPG | 2023 Finish |
| A | 39 | 11 | 13.9 | 66.0 | 1,122 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 26.2 | 2 | 6 | 13.7 | RB12 |
| B | 41 | 12 | 16 | 58.2 | 990 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 32.3 | 6 | 9 | 15.8 | RB4 |
The last blind resume comparison is between two running backs going back-to-back in most drafts. Both backs are entering the third year of their NFL career, and the team they play on added very little competition to the backfield. That makes either a great pick at this point in the draft.
But which one would you prefer if you were on the clock at the beginning of the fourth round?
Player B was better than player A in almost every category last year, except for rush yards per game, total rush yards, and yards per attempt. However, it appears he is a big part of the team's passing game after averaging 3.8 catches and 32.3 receiving yards per game. That ultimately helped him finish as the RB4 in PPR formats in 2023.
Player A, though, was solid across the board in several categories. But his biggest letdown was his two rushing touchdowns. Those six-point rush touchdowns oftentimes are the difference in a top fantasy finish or not. Just look at Montgomery -- who didn't have overly impressive numbers. Nevertheless, he did have 13 rushing touchdowns. Still, player A's RB12 finish last year is a good sign for his potential.
Blind Resume No. 3 Reveal
Could you guess which player was which based on the clues and stats from above? If you couldn't, player A was Buffalo Bills running back James Cook, and player B was Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White.
Cook obviously plays for the better team in Buffalo, so his fantasy value does get a slight boost. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis also both gone, could we see the team give the running back more opportunities in the passing game? That would certainly help him for fantasy purposes, especially if he struggles to top five rushing touchdowns again in 2024.
White, though, might just be the better route to go at this point in the draft. He will continue to see plenty of chances in Tampa's offense and nearly averaged 20 touches per game in 2023. The young back also finished as the RB4 last year, so it is quite surprising to see him getting drafted as the RB12 this upcoming year.
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