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Nick Mariano's 2024 fantasy baseball overvalued players and potential busts in the early rounds. MLB pitchers and hitters with inflated ADPs to avoid in drafts.
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Fantasy baseball drafts (and their articles) are almost all about finding the next superstar and unearthing talent late, but we can't forget that surrendering value by over-drafting can be just as crucial. Even slight miscalculations in value can add up quickly throughout a draft.
To evaluate overvalued players here, we're going to utilize consensus Average Draft Position (ADP) data made available from ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTS, and NFBC. Please keep in mind that "overvalued" doesn't necessarily mean these players are bad, only that the price is poor. If they fall in your draft, then you can still squeeze value out of them!
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Early-Round Overvalued Players - Hitters
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (72)
Everyone’s buying back in on Realmuto being our No. 2 catcher after a down year. While I don’t hate that, I see little reason to pony up for the most expensive non-Adley catcher in the next tier. JTR has earned our love over the last decade or so through being a five-category contributor (as far as C’s go). But his average dropped, his strikeouts rose, and now he’ll be 33 years old.
Among other indicators, performance against four-seam fastballs, max exit velocity, and sprint speed help gauge how sharply the aging curve may hit. His sprint speed is steady so that’s good. His max EV is respectable but it’s gone from the 89th percentile in 2020 to 79th in ‘21, then 67th in ‘22, and 63rd last year. His .244 average and .474 slugging percentage against four-seamers were his lowest since 2018, while his xBA and xSLG were his lowest ever. I hope this is more a blip than a trend, but this is a costly catcher!
First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27)
He’ll be just 25 come Opening Day despite having five seasons of ball under his belt. We know how massive his 2021 season was, and we’ve weighed the benefits of playing at Sahlen Field and TD Ballpark (Dunedin). In case you forgot, Vladito hit .322 with 15 HRs in 49 games at Sahlen and then destroyed Dunedin with a .410 AVG and 11 HRs in just 21 games.
Outside of that, Guerrero Jr. has hit 104 HRs in 590 career games. That’s not bad, and he did debut at 20, so it’s unfair to grade power output on a static scale. Projecting for roughly 30 HRs in a full 162 is therefore fair, and in fact what most systems are doing.
That’s not moving the needle much for a guy who won’t crack double-digit steals and is unlikely to hit near .300. For perspective, his ATC projection aligns with Josh Naylor’s if you gave the latter 155 games. Now, we’ve yet to see that from Naylor and part of Guerrero Jr.’s charm is surpassing 680 plate appearances in three straight seasons. He also played all 60 in the shortened 2020 season.
The question becomes are you simply buying floor here? If so, that’s fine, but the value proposition appears poor at face value. Our Expected Draft Values series has yet to emerge but I’ll let you in on this: Vladdy falls in the “AVG+HR” cohort and grades out negatively because a bat drafted for those two categories this high up would need to hit .299 with 34 HRs to return value.
And then there's this totally scientific piece of data regarding Vladdy being on the cover of MLB The Show:
Everyone seems to forget that the past several cover athletes for MLB The Show(except for Shohei) have had abysmal years following getting the cover. I’m good with Ronnie not catching the curse 🤷🏻♂️
— It’s 8-5-3 DP Clay (@BravesBeck) January 30, 2024
Second Base: Ha-Seong Kim (83)
Kim is the first second-bagger that our aforementioned EDV series ID’d as a single-category contributor. That highlighted category was steals, of which he snagged 38 in 2023. His sprint speed didn’t change, but the new baserunning environment sure did. To call him a one-category guy sounds mean, but it’s a nice segue to discuss Kim’s newfound power output.
The 28-year-old had the same number of batted balls (424) and barrels (18) as he did in 2022. He had three fewer extra-base hits but cracked six more HRs. But 29 doubles and three triples turned to 23 and zero, despite losses in hard-hit rate, pull rate, and overall fly ball rate. His xSLG dropped from ‘22 to ‘23 by six points.
If we get output closer to 12-14 HRs with 30 steals and a .250 average in a top-heavy Padres lineup, then I’m not sure how pleased you’ll be. His 144 R+RBI wasn’t winning any leagues. I’m not scoffing at 30-plus steals, but it doesn’t mean what it used to. Be careful out there.
Third Base: Gunnar Henderson (33)
I’m trying to avoid adding to the Elly De La Cruz word count, so I have to pick someone else from the pack. Let me preface this by saying that I don’t think Henderson is a bust, but that’s why we phrase this column as overvalued, not without value. Henderson was 21/22 and played 150 games last season, roping 28 HRs with 10 steals and a .255 AVG/.814 OPS.
Projections can be slow to come around on youngsters, but they’re also notoriously volatile at this stage of their development. Sophomore slump isn’t in the lexicon simply because alliteration is cool. ATC projects a 26 HR/12 SB/.261 AVG fantasy line, which shouldn’t break any hearts, but his third-round ADP demands more.
Per EDV, a power-speed guy should return 28 HR/18 SB here, or roughly 45 HR+SB total. His projections and 2023 season fall short of that. The 182 R+RBI he scared last year would align with expectations, as would his AVG. Overall, it’s not that bad of a picture, especially if you project more growth than the models.
But this is about more than Henderson. This is about the market price against the other 3B being taken around him. Sans ELDC, they all return positive EDV figures. Jose Ramirez and Austin Riley are superstars. Rafael Devers performed well despite playing through injury. Royce Lewis is projected with similar stats to Henderson but with a higher AVG and lower draft-day cost. Manny Machado’s down year is priced in. Take this with as much salt as you need, but Henderson’s sheen dulls a bit when compared to the entire shelf.
Shortstop: No One, But Bo Bichette If I Have To Choose (40)
Once again, I feel like there are already 100 articles on Elly De La Cruz and you’re either totally bought in or out at this point. (I think the price tag is too rich, but I understand the Jonathan Villar/Adalberto Mondesi-esque allure of it all.)
I don’t actually see any negative picks outside of the polarizing EDLC, Henderson, and Kim. I have some worries about several folks but going on a diatribe about any of them would feel forced. I don’t want to coerce you into an overpriced narrative about one player just to fill a quota. Instead, let me just briefly mention some thoughts down the early SS list.
Trea Turner had a slow start after the World Baseball Classic but had an elite second half and went a perfect 30-for-30 on steal attempts. He calls a hitter-friendly venue home and hits atop a star-studded order. Francisco Lindor posted the best barrel rate and average exit velocity of his career alongside 31 steals. I’m not worried about his age-30 campaign.
Bo Bichette barely ran in 2023, but it’s unclear how much the right knee patellar tendonitis that sent him to the IL in late July contributed to this. He then picked up a quad strain to end August. But he hit .321 with 17 HRs in 106 games before the first IL trip and had an exceptional .312 xBA and .504 xSLG. Getting someone with his potential in the early fourth is nice, but if he doesn’t run then we’re in some trouble. If I had to pick a caution spot to flag for this article, then I suppose it’s Bo until we see him run this spring.
Outfield: Cody Bellinger (55)
Bellinger wound up re-signing with the Cubs so perhaps the magic of that uniform from last year will stay with him. His .881 OPS was the best we’d seen since his 2019 MVP campaign, with a career-best 15.6% strikeout rate coming after he sat around 27% in the previous two years. His contact rates soared and the hits fell to the tune of a .307 average.
But while Bellinger’s elite 2019 season had equally impressive xStats fueling it, such as a .320 xBA and .637 xSLG, his ‘23 metrics don’t back up the party. His .268 xBA is nearly 40 points lower than the actual, while his .434 xSLG was almost 100 points below the .525 SLG mark. The barrel rate wasn’t even half of the ‘19 rate.
You get the point. Several key indicators behind the curtain are screaming, “This was unlikely to occur!” Now, we must all acknowledge that sabermetrics continue to evolve and will have blind spots, but consistent, sizeable gaps such as these will trip my alarms. This price tag would've been lofty no matter where Bellinger landed.
Cody Bellinger in 2023 (percentile):
• 87.9-mph average exit velocity (21st)
• 31.4% hard-hit percentage (10th)
• 6.1% barrel rate (28th)
• .327 xwOBA (53rd)
• .434 xSLG (58th)Results aside, this data spells trouble. Overachieved last year and regression is expected.
— Camden (@Camden_Cash) January 30, 2024
Outfield: Lane Thomas (119) / Jordan Walker (125)
Thomas feels like another player that most people are labeling “bust” so I feel guilty piling on. He wouldn’t be the first to breakout at 27 years old, but he hit .223 in the second half after eclipsing .300 in the first half. He kept the category juice flowing with 14 HR/12 SB in those 68 second-half games, but this career .250 hitter seems to have reverted to his “true stripes” after a hot half.
Let’s talk about Walker here, who posted a respectable 116 wRC+ with 16 HRs as a young 21-year-old. He turns 22 in late May and has a good chance to blossom into a star, but 2024 looks to be a year too early. St. Louis did free up outfield space with their Tyler O’Neill trade, but Walker remains destined for the bottom half of the batting order.
We’ve largely focused on projecting HR/SB, which are far less fluky than R/RBI, but Walker only had ~100 R+RBI in 117 games while hitting around seventh in ‘23. Comparatively, Seiya Suzuki, whose ADP is nearly identical to Walker’s, had ~150 R+RBI in 138 games last year but sports a similar power-speed profile to Walker. ATC gives Suzuki 31 HR+SB with a .270 AVG in ‘24 while Walker gets 30 HR+SB and a .271 AVG. But Suzuki has 24 additional R+RBI. Don’t ignore these smaller things stacking on each other with each decision you make!
Early-Round Overvalued Players - Pitchers
Starting Pitcher #1: Zac Gallen (37)
On the surface, Gallen had an ace season to be proud of. He threw 210 innings with a 17-9 record, 220 strikeouts, and a 3.47 ERA/1.12 WHIP. His form wasn’t as good as the year prior (2.54 ERA/0.91 WHIP), but his K:BB rose from 4.09 to 4.68. So overall, not much has changed, right? Well, not so fast.
Gallen had never allowed an average exit velocity above 89.2 mph and suddenly we’ve got 91.5 mph on the ledger for ‘23. His hard-hit rate jumped over 10 percentage points and his xERA leaped from 3.17 to 4.16, with Statcast data showing a rise in exit velo on every offering. Some are more worried than others.
Zac Gallen finished last season in the bottom 3% in exit velocity allowed (91.5) and bottom 5% in hard hit rate (46.2%). His xERA was a 4.16. I think he'll be pitch better than that in 2024 but it's something to monitor
— Seth Guttman (@Gutt_Feeling) January 25, 2024
The cutter went from a .350 SLG/.348 xSLG in ‘22 to .595 SLG/.548 xSLG while gaining nearly three ticks on the exit velo speedometer. His curve generated more whiffs but also had the exit velo rise from 87.4 mph to 91.9 mph. Fastballs are the bread and butter, and that lost 124 rpm on the spin rate with a career-worst .441 xSLG and .326 xwOBA.
I will point out that Gallen went from a .175/.264/.308 triple slash against and 4.46 ERA the third time through the order in ‘22 to a .294/.339/.493 slash and a 6.19 ERA in ‘23. The overarching point is that while it may seem that Gallen held onto plenty of the gains shown in 2022, there looks to be good reason for that career-worst .301 BABIP and 46.2% hard-hit rate. You might wind up with a Gallen closer to 2021 (4.30 ERA) than you like if he can’t recover the soft contact edge.
Starting Pitcher #2: Sonny Gray (118)* (His early hamstring injury hasn't pushed him down enough where I'd take him)
Did you know that Sonny Gray’s 5.2% HR/FB rate is the lowest mark by a qualified starter since 2014 (sans the COVID season). His usual rate is at least double that, and his barrel rate rose to a career-high 6.9% in 2023. His xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, hard-hit rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, and xERA were all nearly identical between ‘22 and ‘23!
One of the biggest differences here is that Gray pitched 184 innings, which was his first time topping 175 since ‘19 and his first time above 180 since ‘15. Signing in St. Louis should help stave off some regression, as Statcast gives Busch Stadium a 90 HR Park Factor (10% less than league average). Target Field had 104, for the record.
But we are talking about doubling down on both his health and his fly-ball luck in the face of more barrels and little change under the hood. At 34 years old, I would be shocked if the double-down hits. Some pessimism is baked into the cost, but he still demands a pick within the first 10 rounds in 12-teamers and an eighth-rounder in 15-teamers. Don’t wait on your SP1/2 with Gray circled as a later standalone ace.
Relief Pitcher: Emmanuel Clase (60)
Analyzing one year of pitching can be noisy, and shifting that lens to relievers makes it even more volatile. But we work with what we’ve got. Clase’s 2023 season was fantastic compared to the general MLB population, but it fell short of Clase’s own standard. His 44 saves paced the league, but he blew 12 additional save opps, recorded nine losses, lost the edge on his whiff and ground-ball rates, and simply looked less dominant.
Emmanuel Clase gave up 4 hits in an inning 4 TIMES last year, 2nd most of any reliever
He also had 25 games of throwing 1 inning without recording a single strikeout, the most of any reliever
Hitters hit .270 against his cutter because he stopped throwing the slider as much😅
— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) January 26, 2024
Even from the get-go, Clase’s 56.6% first-strike rate was well off the 64.6% mark of ‘22 and 63.1% in ‘21. His pitches lost about 0.5-1 mph of zip and several analysts noticed that his release points continue to drop from their 2021 figures. He’s still young (turning 26 on March 18) but leads all relievers with 223 games pitched.
Other changes around Clase include worse defensive play and a more balanced schedule where he doesn’t get to disproportionately beat up on weaker AL Central teams. Per Fangraphs, Amed Rosario went from six Defensive Runs Saved in ‘22 to -16 (!) in ‘23. Myles Straw went from 17 to six and even Steven Kwan slipped from 21 to 16. And the Twins were strong competition, but otherwise the Tigers, Royals, and White Sox posted three of the four worst team wRC+ marks in the majors.
Overall, Clase has to prove he can still keep the ball on ground like he used to (55% in ‘23, ~65% in 2021-22) while striking out at least a batter per inning. Can he regain the edge in the zone to regularly get ahead in counts like the prime years? Is overuse creeping in already? These are not questions I want to consider for an early reliever pick.
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