X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers List by Nick Mariano

Edouard Julien - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Nick Mariano's 2024 fantasy baseball draft sleepers and ADP values. MLB pitchers, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF and catchers to target in the later rounds of your drafts.

This premium article is part of our 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit and a free sample of the expert analysis loaded up in RotoBaller's Draft Kit. Enjoy this premium article for free for a limited time. All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

You might be sick of the term "sleeper" since it lacks a clear definition for consideration. Everyone's different so let's get my definition out of the way first! Sleepers are not necessarily meant to be names that no one else has heard of because in 2024 that means you're plumbing ADP beyond pick 600. No, it means their value is presently being slept on. Therefore, you will see a few veterans here mixed in with youngsters who aren't being properly gauged.

This piece originally ran with early NFBC data but now it utilizes consensus ADP from ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTS, and NFBC. We're hunting profits here, but these guys deserve to be talked about much more heading into 2024. Let's sleepwalk into some championships here.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers - Hitters

Catchers: Bo Naylor (ADP: 239, C16)

First of all, I'll point out that his NFBC ADP (where two-catcher formats are popular) is still outside of the top-12 C's and that's my line for intrigue. As the No. 16 catcher off of the board, he is largely undrafted in most single-catcher, 12-team formats.

Naylor boasts above-average power and sports quietly effective wheels, with stellar plate discipline to balance out a batting average that won’t win any awards. He’s popped 28 home runs in just 560 Triple-A plate appearances (126 games), with 11 steals and a .255 average on top of that. But it took him a while to get going in the majors.

The 22-year-old hit .179 with a 66 wRC+, four home runs, and one steal over his first 131 PAs (through August 18). He had a K/BB of nearly three. But it’s an early, small sample for a touted prospect, so patience was exercised (luckily).

Naylor’s final 99 PAs of the season would yield a .321/.434/.679 triple slash with eight doubles, seven HRs, four steals (on four attempts), and 17 walks to 16 strikeouts. It’s beautiful. If some of those gains track and we’re beyond some of the learning curve then we’ve got a late C capable of 20 HRs, 10 SBs, and an average of around .250. Sign me up!

Others I Like: Luis Campusano (287), Austin Wells (307), Ryan Jeffers (317)

First Base: Ryan Mountcastle (ADP: 254)

Most of you would say Mountcastle had a disappointing 2023 campaign, right? He only played in 115 games and while he improved on his worse ‘22 numbers, he still only produced a .779 OPS with an ISO 50 points lower than the .232 seen in 2021.

Some may happily settle on thinking this is roughly who Mountcastle is, especially after Camden’s walls were altered. While that may hold partial truth, we can’t forget how Mountcastle crushed throughout spring training and slugged six home runs with a .972 OPS in Baltimore’s first 13 games. Four of those round-trippers came at home, so don’t give me that.

Mountcastle would slump over the next eight weeks, supplying a .605 OPS with 47 strikeouts to just nine walks. He hit fewer HRs (five) in that 47-game span than in those first 13 contests. But then we learned he suffered from vertigo and had been struggling to see the ball for quite some time.

His first 45 games off of the injured list saw him hit .359 (.978 OPS) with seven HRs and eight doubles. He had a far more reasonable 37:19 K:BB. Some of this was the result of platooning with Ryan O’Hearn, with Mountcastle primarily facing southpaws. But then a September shoulder injury cropped up, which effectively wrapped up his ‘23. At this price point, I’m comfortable leaning on Mountcastle and expecting more consistency from his bat.

Others I Like: Anthony Rizzo (262), Joey Meneses (339), Nolan Schanuel (369)

Second Base: Edouard Julien (ADP: 236)

Julien’s prospects got a boost with Jorge Polanco’s trade, which gives the 24-year-old a steadier job to let his elite eye blossom. Minnesota largely kept him away from southpaws as a rookie, but perhaps this signals a willingness to give him more full-time run.

Even if it doesn’t, he showed enough promise at the dish as a leadoff man against right-handed pitching to be worth a pick in the 200s. The 24-year-old didn’t pop with elite exit velocities or speed but had a 100th-percentile chase rate (14.3%), 98th-percentile walk rate (15.7%), and 91st-percentile Sweet-Spot rate (38.8%). The latter meant that it was good wood when he did choose to swing. This is reflected well by Thomas Nestico’s chart:

Ideally, Julien can trim the ~30% strikeout rate and channel more of his stellar decision-making into big swings. It may be that his average never pops but he still posts on-base percentages that sniff .400 due to his patience and pitch recognition. The modest ADP gives us a chance to gamble on the first outcome occurring.

Others I Like: Jorge Polanco (263), Colt Keith (284), Brandon Lowe (311)

Third Base: Ke'Bryan Hayes (184)

Maikel Garcia is nice for the speed-needy while Luis Rengifo is an intriguing Swiss Army knife, but Hayes should have a chance at outperforming the five names ahead of him (Max Muncy, Noelvi Marte, Alec Bohm, Jake Burger, Christian Encarnacion-Strand). We’ve yet to see a full season (150-plus games) out of Hayes but breakout signs are emerging.

The 27-year-old brought his strikeout rate down for a second straight year while bumping his ISO to .182 from .101 in ‘22. His average exit velocity gained another tick and his fly-ball rate jumped by more than 10 percentage points. He particularly loved facing southpaws (.847 OPS, .238 ISO, 120 wRC+) but held his own against right-handers (.721, .156, 92). The overall point is that his bat is still climbing.

And why shouldn’t it be? A wrist injury plagued his 2021 season and then he played through a back injury for much of 2022. Pittsburgh played it safe with two IL stints in ‘23 due to lower back inflammation. But his healthy stretch run in August/September saw him hit .299 with 10 HRs.

There is a 20-25 HR bat in here. I will note he only attempted two swipes after the IL visits after going 9-for-14 in the first half. A healthy Hayes could punch the ball and feel comfortable running en route to a 20/15/.275 campaign near pick 200. Such a finish would yield roughly 4-5 rounds of profit.

Others I Like: Jeimer Candelario (223), Junior Caminero (224), Maikel Garcia (259), Michael Busch (379)

Shortstop: Luis Rengifo (ADP: 280)

Another slow starter who picked it up later, Rengifo’s versatility helped keep him in the lineup through early problems until he went ballistic following the All-Star break. The 26-year-old was hitting an empty .219 with a poor .255 BABIP and a middling 33% fly-ball rate.

But then lightning struck (aka LAA hitting coaches helped him out) and Rengifo hit .318 with a .960 OPS and 40% fly-ball rate in the second half. He cracked 11 HRs in those 49 games as a waiver-wire hero before a torn bicep tendon prematurely ended the party in early September.

He’s said to be ready for 2024 and qualifies at multiple positions no matter what platform you like. Don’t overlook him based on deceiving seasonal stats and his being a late bloomer. If he winds up losing PT due to the Aaron Hicks signing then so be it. (I'm not concerned about his early health.)

Others I Like: Ezequiel Tovar (213), Zach Neto (338), Jackson Merrill (406)

Outfield: Parker Meadows (ADP: 318)

Meadows performed well enough during his month-plus of major-league action to earn leadoff duties in the final week of the 2023 season. In 37 games (145 PAs), Meadows only hit .232 but posted a .331 on-base percentage alongside three HRs (nine total extra-base hits).

Okay, so a ~12-15 HR pace isn’t exciting and many of you aren’t directly helped by OBP. But you still recognize getting on base is a good thing, especially in today’s steal-happy era. The rookie did his part there, successfully swiping a bag on 8-of-9 attempts.

He was 19-for-21 on steal attempts over 113 Triple-A games prior to his promotion and went 17-for-19 in ‘22. The man has a nose for opportunity and closes the deal. We have a potential path to 12-15 HRs, 20 or more steals, and an avenue to 100 runs if he holds down the leadoff role. Our own Eric Cross is even more bullish on the power translating:

Outfield: Matt Wallner (ADP: 347)

Wallner constantly tattooed the ball in 2023, posting the eighth-best xISO (.285) out of 362 batters with at least 200 PAs. His .374 xwOBA was a top-20 mark out of the same pool, with the bulk of names surrounding him coming off of our draft boards in the early rounds.

Of course, there are good reasons to differentiate him from that group. Wallner’s first full MLB season will come at 26 and he’s likely to be platooned, though at least he’ll face righties.

And while most prospect articles weren’t highlighting the man, he did slash .299/.436/.597 with 21 HRs and eight steals in just 78 Double-A games back in ‘22. He was 24 at Double-A, but I’m more flexible with the prospects who had their development stunted by the lost 2020 season.

Others I Like: Ceddanne Rafaela (337), Jose Siri (353), Johan Rojas (379), Sean Bouchard (474)

 

Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers - Pitchers

Last year’s slots went to Hunter Brown and Justin Steele when they were in the 250-300 ADP range, so what’s next on the grill?

Starting Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez (ADP: 268)

If I handed you a SIERA or xFIP leaderboard for the starting pitchers of 2023 and said, “Spencer Strider, Tyler Glasnow, Logan Webb, and Zach Eflin comprise four of the names. Who is the fifth?” What would you guess? Gerrit Cole? Zack Wheeler? Pablo Lopez? Nope, it’s Sanchez. Sure, you have to bring the qualification bar down to >90 IP, but you get the drift.

Sanchez had failed to make an impression in previous cups of coffee and even sported an iffy 4.35 ERA/1.45 WHIP in 50 Triple-A innings last year. But he came up to the majors with a plan of attack. He pounded away with his sinker-changeup-slider combo that nibbled the zone well enough that he induced a 57% ground-ball rate while maintaining a 4% walk rate. No wonder the metrics loved him.

Then his changeup usage started to rise, and the strikeouts rose with it. Statcast had him throwing it 25% of the time in June, then around 32-33% in July-August, and up to 40% in September. You may remember his September housing a pair of 10-K performances.

Said K% rose from about 22% in July-August to 28%, all while supplying the same low walk rate and exceptional ground-ball rate. Will we get another top-five year on the charts? Probably not. If he can hold some of these gains then he’s a great pick with a strong ‘pen behind him.

Starting Pitcher: Chase Silseth (ADP: 383)

Silseth’s role bounced around as the Halos tried to find a spark before ultimately letting the 23-year-old operate as a (somewhat) consistent starter following the All-Star break. His first start of the second half came on July 19 as he struck out 10 Yankees. Two starts later he would ring up 12 Mariners. The 41:13 K:BB in 33 ⅔ IP was zesty, though he did surrender six homers (1.6 HR/9) in that span.

Still, he was primarily a groundball arm (42% in that window, 49% on the year) with strikeout stuff. I love that combo. His 3.65 SIERA ranked 24th among 221 starters (min. 30 IP) while his 3.36 xFIP ranked 15th.

Unfortunately, HRs may remain a problem, but I must point out he faced teams like Atlanta, Houston, and Tampa Bay in this small sample. His run was cut short by a freak concussion suffered on a throw across the diamond, but he threw about 100 frames in ‘23 and should give us ~150 solid ones in ‘24.

Starting Pitcher: Joe Boyle (ADP: 412)

On the surface, Boyle’s trio of major-league starts in 2023 were laudable and offer plenty of hope moving forward. The 1.69 ERA/0.81 WHIP and 15:5 K:BB in 16 frames is crisp. And he had a 2.25 ERA/1.19 WHIP in three Triple-A starts for Oakland following a trade from Cincinnati, so what’s the catch?

Well, aside from rarely going all-in on small samples, Boyle’s minor-league track record suggests a massive walk problem. He offered plenty of strikeouts, but his overall 168:93 K:BB from the minors last year illustrates the exceptional double-edged sword that Boyle wields. His overall figure from the minors is 362:191 in 237 IP.

Jeff Zimmerman highlighted a quote from Boyle after his second MLB start where he cited more reps, trusting his coaching/the process, and hitting the zone more consistently. Fair enough, and it could explain how both his Ks and BBs dipped.

Let’s see how he’s attacking hitters in the spring and early April, but if he either resembles the arm from those final three starts of ‘23 or the high-K arm with some command improvements then he’s a lovely buy in ‘24.

Others I Like: Kyle Harrison (242), Kutter Crawford (269), Louie Varland (331), Erick Fedde (352), Gavin Stone (430)

Relief Pitcher: Hunter Harvey - (ADP: 305)

I doubt many would posit that Harvey is anything but Washington’s best relief pitcher. But most have resigned themselves to the reality that Kyle Finnegan is the closer and Harvey is simply a handcuff. Do not forget that both were healthy last May/June when the Nats tagged Harvey into the role over Finnegan.

Finnegan finished May with two runs allowed to the Dodgers to inflate his ERA to 4.91 (5.57 FIP) with a 2.05 HR/9, while Harvey cleaned up that game’s mess with a strong two-inning save. That gave him a 3.42 ERA (3.22 FIP, 1.03 HR/9) at the time. Finnegan recorded zero saves from then on until Harvey hit the IL.

Harvey posted a clean save against the Cardinals on July 14 but then had both forearm and triceps soreness, which led to his missing a month and opening the door for Finnegan to finish 2023 as the stopper. Harvey has always had the edge in ratios, strikeouts, walks, homers allowed…pretty much everything. If the Nats do open ‘24 with Finnegan as the closer then it’s only a matter of time, again.

Relief Pitcher: Chad Green – (ADP: Very Low)

Green isn’t likely to scoop up significant saves in 2024, as Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson should be the one-two punch in the late frames, but Green offers plenty more. He missed most of 2022 and ‘23 due to Tommy John surgery and at 32 years old, it wasn’t a given his form would return.

Well, he looked fine to me! We only saw 12 big-league innings here, but out of 458 relievers (min. 10 IP), his 19.5% swinging-strike rate ranked fourth. Some of that came from relentlessly getting ahead in the count with a 75% first-strike rate, which was sixth in that same RP pool. He also had a 15:1 K:BB in 12 ⅓ IP during his rehab assignment, for the record.

I don’t think we get 2021 Chad Green, who delivered 83 ⅔ IP with 10 wins, six saves, 99 Ks, and a 3.12 ERA/0.88 WHIP. He only threw about 25 innings in ‘23 and Toronto has him signed through 2025, but his versatility should lead to high-leverage spots that supply wins, Ks, and good ratios that make him elite FrankenAce material.

Others I Like: James McArthur (336), Orion Kerkering (340), Shelby Miller (408)



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mike Malott

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Puka Nacua

Rams "Very Optimistic" Puka Nacua Will Return After Week 8 Bye
Kevin Holland

Set For UFC Vancouver Co-Main Event
Aiemann Zahabi

Looks For His Seventh Consecutive Win
D'Andre Swift

Bears "Hopeful" That D'Andre Swift Will Play in Week 7
Bradley Beal

Set to Make Clippers Debut in Preseason Finale
Marlon Vera

Returns At UFC Vancouver
VJ Edgecombe

Set to Return for Preseason Finale
Calvin Ridley

Ruled Out for Sunday
Jeremy Sochan

Won't Play in Season Opener
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
AJ Green

Bucks Agree to Contract Extension
Manon Fiorot

Looks To Bounce Back
Stefon Diggs

Questionable for Sunday
Aoriqileng

Aori Aoriqileng Looks To Rebound
Cody Gibson

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jaylen Brown

Considered Day-to-Day with Hamstring Tightness
Kyle Nelson

Set For Lightweight Bout
Matt Frevola

Set To Open Up UFC Vancouver Main Card
Jaden Ivey

Will Miss Four Weeks After Knee Surgery
Paul George

Expected to Miss Season Opener
Chuba Hubbard

Will Return in Week 7
Joel Embiid

Set to Make Preseason Debut on Friday
Terry McLaurin

Ruled Out for Week 7
Puka Nacua

Inactive for Week 7
Garrett Wilson

Will Not Play in Week 7, Could Return in Week 8?
Chase Brown

Goes for Over 100 Rushing Yards in Win Over Steelers
Mark Stone

Stays Hot With Hat Trick of Assists
Evgeni Malkin

Continues Prolific Start
Shane Pinto

Pots Sixth Goal of the Campaign
Cole Caufield

Pushes Canadiens Past Predators
Shayne Gostisbehere

Delivers Three Assists in Thursday's Win
Matthew Schaefer

Makes History With Another Assist
Bo Horvat

Nets Second Career Hat Trick
Frederick Gaudreau

Sustains Undisclosed Injury Thursday
Jaylen Warren

Highly Efficient on the Ground Thursday, Adds Value as Receiver
Aaron Rodgers

Fails to Finish Comeback Despite Throwing for Four Touchdowns
Joe Flacco

Flashes Vintage Form in Comeback Win Thursday
Pat Freiermuth

Records Two Big Touchdowns in Week 7 Loss
Ja'Marr Chase

Targeted 23 Times in Huge Thursday Night Showing
CFB

Curt Cignetti Signs Eight-Year, $11.6 Million Extension With Indiana
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Unlikely to Be Ready for Opening Day After Elbow Surgery
Anthony Santander

Removed From ALCS Roster With Back Injury
Jackson Chourio

Aggravates Hamstring, Pulled Early in Game 3 of NLCS
Joe Burrow

on Track to Return in Mid-December
Lamar Jackson

Expected to Return in Week 8
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals' Trey Hendrickson Ruled Out for Thursday Night vs. Steelers
George Kittle

Plans to Play in Week 7
Brady Tkachuk

to Miss 6-8 Weeks After Having Thumb Surgery
Noah Hanifin

Remains Sidelined Thursday
Akira Schmid

Faces Bruins Thursday
Jake Allen

Starts Against Panthers
Troy Terry

Expected to Play Thursday
Matt Duchene

Unavailable Against Canucks
Anze Kopitar

a Game-Time Call Thursday
VEG

Carter Hart Joins Golden Knights on Tryout Contract
CeeDee Lamb

Says He Will Return Without Limitations in Week 7
Aaron Judge

Will Not Need Elbow Surgery
Anthony Volpe

Won't be Ready for Start of Next Season
Gerrit Cole

Won't be Ready for Opening Day Next Year
Milwaukee Bucks

Chris Livingston Waived by the Bucks
Keegan Murray

Nique Clifford Shines in Keegan Murray's Absence
Cooper Flagg

Continues to Start at Point Guard
Chuba Hubbard

Expects to Play in Week 7
Ron Harper Jr.

Earns a Two-Way Deal with the Celtics
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Waived by the Hornets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard's Stock Rising for Buccaneers
Cam Talbot

Collects Third Straight Win
Connor Bedard

Shines With Three Assists
CFB

Jermod McCoy Officially Out for Alabama Matchup
Zach Benson

Records Four Assists In Season Debut
CFB

Jam Miller Questionable to Face Tennessee
Cam York

on Track to Make Season Debut Thursday
John Klingberg

Deemed Day-to-Day
Jaden Ivey

Considered Day-to-Day
Josh Hart

Making Progress
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Busy in Preseason Debut
Keegan Murray

Lands Five-Year, $140 Million Extension
Domantas Sabonis

Sustains Hamstring Injury Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

"Fine" Following Wednesday's Early Exit
CFB

Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt Probable For Saturday
Kevon Looney

Slated to be Sidelined With Knee Injury
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Open 21-Day Practice Window for Khalik Mack
Anthony Volpe

Undergoes Left-Shoulder Surgery
CFB

Jayden Gibson No Longer with Oklahoma Program
Emmanuel Clase

to be Banished for Life After Gambling Allegations?
Alex Bregman

Plans to Opt Out of Contract With Red Sox
Christopher Bell

Sits Third in Points After Quiet Third-Place Finish
Chase Briscoe

Passes Denny Hamlin at the Start, but Hamlin Gets Him in the End
Joey Logano

Falling Out of Playoff Picture Despite Other Contenders' Crashes
Ryan Blaney

Stage 1 Crash Puts Ryan Blaney in Severe Playoff Trouble
Denny Hamlin

Wins at Las Vegas and Will Compete for the 2025 Cup Series Title
Kyle Larson

Dominates at Las Vegas but Ends Up Second
Chase Elliott

Struggles to Gain A Solid Finish at Las Vegas After Pit-Road Penalty
William Byron

Strong Run Ends In A Wreck at Las Vegas
CFB

Sam Leavitt Viewed as Day-to-Day with Undisclosed Injury
Anthony Santander

Scratched From Game 2 of ALCS With Back Tightness
San Diego Padres

Mike Shildt Retires as a Manager
Mateusz Gamrot

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Charles Oliveira

Gets Back In The Win Column
Montel Jackson

Drops Decision
Deiveson Figueiredo

Gets Split-Decision Victory
Vicente Luque

Outclassed
Vicente Luque

Joel Alvarez Outclasses Vicente Luque
Jhonata Diniz

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mario Pinto

Remains Undefeated
CFB

Matt Rhule Denying Interest in Penn State Head Coaching Job
CFB

Le'Veon Moss Not Believed to Have Suffered Season-Ending Injury
Ricardo Ramos

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Kaan Ofli

Scores Comeback Win
CFB

Bill Belichick Says he's Committed to North Carolina
Tiger Woods

Undergoes Back Surgery
CFB

UAB Fires Head Coach Trent Dilfer After 2.5 Seasons In Birmingham
CFB

Penn State Fires Head Coach James Franklin After 10.5 Seasons
CFB

Penn State QB Drew Allar Will Miss The Rest Of 2025 Season With Ankle Injury
Brandon Woodruff

Will Not be on NLCS Roster
Max Scherzer

Added to ALCS Roster
Bryan Woo

Makes ALCS Roster
Bo Bichette

Won't Make ALCS Roster
Christopher Bell

the Favorite to Win at Las Vegas
Denny Hamlin

on the Pole at Las Vegas
Joey Logano

Can Joey Logano Get Lucky in Las Vegas Again?
William Byron

has the Fastest Car in Practice at Las Vegas
Ty Gibbs

Speed of Ty Gibbs a Good Sign for Toyota at Las Vegas
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Should Contend at Las Vegas
Ross Chastain

Scrapes Wall in Practice But Qualifies 15th at Las Vegas
Chris Buescher

Looking for Improvement at Las Vegas
Austin Cindric

It Has Been Hit or Miss for Austin Cindric at Las Vegas
Chase Elliott

Should Run Well at Las Vegas
Kyle Larson

Conservatism May Keep him from Replicating Previous Las Vegas Drive
Josh Berry

After Josh Berry's Las Vegas Win, Ryan Blaney Should be a Top Contender
Chase Briscoe

has Definitely Improved on Intermediate Tracks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP