X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Starting Pitcher Breakouts Due For Regression - 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Kyle Bradish - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Betting Picks

Connelly Doan takes a look at a few MLB starting pitchers who broke out in 2023 but may be due for regression in 2024 fantasy baseball.

An important aspect of fantasy baseball is knowing when to buy a breakout. Fantasy managers typically get excited when a player puts forth a strong season for the first time and want to roster them the next season, but should they?

Miscalculations like this can be particularly costly when it comes to starting pitchers, especially given last season’s volatility at the position. Identifying starters who may not do as well as they showed last season can help managers get the most value out of their teams.

In this article, I will identify four starting pitchers who had a breakout 2023 season but may not be able to repeat it in 2024. To be clear, just because a player regresses does not mean they can’t still provide fantasy value!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Starting Pitchers Due For Regression

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

Kyle Bradish came out of nowhere with an outstanding 2023 season, going 12-7 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 25.0% strikeout rate in 30 starts and 168 2/3 innings pitched. The 27-year-old improved vastly from a 2022 season that saw a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 23 starts. Why do I think he may not continue his upward trajectory?

Bradish is a clear case of a pitcher who I still like for 2024, just not as much as his 2023 numbers. First, he cut his four-seam fastball usage in half in favor of a sinker. His four-seamer was his worst pitch and primary pitch in 2022, so it was good to see him move away from it for better pitches. However, he still threw the four-seamer 22.4% of the time and got poor results.

His increased reliance on a sinker helped him keep the ball on the ground with a 6.6-degree launch angle, but he gave up a lot of hard contact. His 3.76 SIERA, while still good, was almost one run higher than his ERA. It is not uncommon for pitchers to overachieve their expected numbers due to favorable park factors or strong defense behind them. Bradish benefits from both, but I still would expect his ERA to drift more toward his expected metrics.

Overall, I think Bradish will be an above-average fantasy option this season. He made clear improvements with his pitch mix and plays on an outstanding team both offensively and defensively. However, I think it is unreasonable for fantasy managers to expect an ERA south of 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.15 in 2024.

 

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elder surprisingly served as an anchor for the Braves rotation in 2023, going 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 17.5% strikeout rate in 31 starts and 174 2/3 IP. Despite his performance and the team he plays on, I am highly skeptical that he will be able to replicate his success.

The 24-year-old employs a pitch-to-contact approach, so the low strikeout numbers are something fantasy managers should expect. This profile can provide fantasy value, but a closer look suggests it may be difficult for Elder. He allowed a lot of hard contact, with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in baseball's 26th and 37th percentiles, respectively, while posting a middling 8.5-degree launch angle. This leaves very little room for error, and his 4.81 SIERA suggests he got very lucky.

More generally, Elder simply seems to have outperformed his skill set. His sinker and four-seamer average are just around 90 mph, so he will need to be very exact with his location to avoid damaging contact. He also took on a large workload due to injuries in the Braves rotation, but his role may be diminished should they be more healthy in 2024.

Elder offers a slim margin of fantasy value given his low strikeout rate and high contact rate. He got excellent results last season despite this, but it seems unlikely to be sustainable. Fantasy managers may be onto this given his current low ADP, but it bears mentioning for those who may not have the opportunity to dig deeper into underlying metrics.

 

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds currently have one of baseball’s most exciting, young rosters, and Andrew Abbott was part of that in 2023. The 24-year-old made 21 starts, going 8-6 with a 3.87 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 26.1% strikeout rate. While he may have left a positive first impression, fantasy managers should be cautious with him in 2024.

It didn’t even take Abbott a full season to start regressing, as his performance between the first and second half of the season varied greatly. His first seven starts yielded a 2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 28.9% strikeout rate while averaging about six IP/GS. However, his final 14 starts culminated in a 4.79 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 24.6% strikeout rate. I don’t think Abbott is as bad as his second-half numbers, but I do worry about him.

First, Abbott has the misfortune of pitching his home games at Great American Ball Park. He gave up some of the hardest contact in baseball with a 21.6-degree launch angle. That is a recipe for disaster in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and he seemed lucky to have escaped with a 10.7% HR/FB rate.

Second, he relied heavily on his four-seam fastball at 50.1%, which is a lot for a starting pitcher. The pitch is fine overall but is not so overpowering that he can get away with throwing it so much. Abbott does have a four-pitch mix, but his curveball yielded very poor results. This may simply be an issue of learning how to pitch more strategically at the big-league level, and while Abbott has plenty of time to do so, his performance could initially suffer for it.

Abbott showed encouraging upside in the first half of his rookie season, but he also showed clear aspects of his game in need of improvement, and his home ballpark doesn’t help. While I think Abbott can figure it out and be a serviceable fantasy starter throughout his career, I am hesitant to bank on that happening fully in 2024.

 

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

This final pitcher didn’t break out as clearly as the others but was still a surprising fantasy asset, particularly in points leagues. Dean Kremer played his part in the O’s strong 2023 season, going 13-5 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 21.4% strikeout rate in 32 starts and 172 2/3 IP. He is not in the same category as his rotation mate Bradish, but I think that he may regress while still providing fantasy value.

Starting with the potential for regression, Kremer doesn’t have any part of his game that stands out. He threw four pitches at least 10% of the time in 2023, and the top three were fastball variants. His results on those pitches were fine, but they did exceed expected results.

On the flip side, most of his stats were below league average but weren’t awful either. Given the team behind him, he was able to pick up 13 wins and pitched deep enough into games to toss 14 quality starts. His compilation of fantasy value may not be the most exciting, but it is nevertheless a stable source of points.

Kremer does not have the upside of Bradish, and while he likely overperformed in 2023 thanks to his team, the fact is he will still have all that support in 2024. His underlying profile indicates there is room for negative regression, but even if that happens, I think he can pitch well enough to provide back-end value in points leagues.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Casey Mize14 mins ago

Allows One Hit In Season Debut
Heliot Ramos22 mins ago

Goes Deep On Tuesday
Logan Webb28 mins ago

Tosses Seven Innings Of One-Run Ball
Evan Bouchard42 mins ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel50 mins ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko1 hour ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson1 hour ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson1 hour ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin1 hour ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Eugenio Suárez7 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk7 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King7 hours ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich7 hours ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram7 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender7 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III8 hours ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington8 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson8 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer8 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams8 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge8 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews8 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones8 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin9 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice9 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep9 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson9 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell9 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao9 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry9 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey9 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt9 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz10 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman10 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford10 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi11 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen11 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick11 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners11 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay11 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland12 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia12 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti12 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL12 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette12 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
New York Giants12 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Sam Ehlinger13 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele13 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns13 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals13 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter13 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry13 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips13 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith13 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball13 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter13 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey13 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton14 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale14 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant14 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal14 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II14 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons14 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young14 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser14 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo14 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud14 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart14 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba14 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga14 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry14 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown14 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault14 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere15 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn15 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro15 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions17 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans17 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders17 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear18 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins18 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL18 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä18 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway18 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys18 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal18 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy18 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris18 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk19 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth20 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp20 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim21 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood21 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau21 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole21 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith1 day ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment1 day ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]