Starting Pitcher Breakouts Due For Regression - 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

An important aspect of fantasy baseball is knowing when to buy a breakout. Fantasy managers typically get excited when a player puts forth a strong season for the first time and want to roster them the next season, but should they?

Miscalculations like this can be particularly costly when it comes to starting pitchers, especially given last season’s volatility at the position. Identifying starters who may not do as well as they showed last season can help managers get the most value out of their teams.

In this article, I will identify four starting pitchers who had a breakout 2023 season but may not be able to repeat it in 2024. To be clear, just because a player regresses does not mean they can’t still provide fantasy value!

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Starting Pitchers Due For Regression

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

Kyle Bradish came out of nowhere with an outstanding 2023 season, going 12-7 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 25.0% strikeout rate in 30 starts and 168 2/3 innings pitched. The 27-year-old improved vastly from a 2022 season that saw a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 23 starts. Why do I think he may not continue his upward trajectory?

Bradish is a clear case of a pitcher who I still like for 2024, just not as much as his 2023 numbers. First, he cut his four-seam fastball usage in half in favor of a sinker. His four-seamer was his worst pitch and primary pitch in 2022, so it was good to see him move away from it for better pitches. However, he still threw the four-seamer 22.4% of the time and got poor results.

His increased reliance on a sinker helped him keep the ball on the ground with a 6.6-degree launch angle, but he gave up a lot of hard contact. His 3.76 SIERA, while still good, was almost one run higher than his ERA. It is not uncommon for pitchers to overachieve their expected numbers due to favorable park factors or strong defense behind them. Bradish benefits from both, but I still would expect his ERA to drift more toward his expected metrics.

Overall, I think Bradish will be an above-average fantasy option this season. He made clear improvements with his pitch mix and plays on an outstanding team both offensively and defensively. However, I think it is unreasonable for fantasy managers to expect an ERA south of 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.15 in 2024.

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elder surprisingly served as an anchor for the Braves rotation in 2023, going 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 17.5% strikeout rate in 31 starts and 174 2/3 IP. Despite his performance and the team he plays on, I am highly skeptical that he will be able to replicate his success.

The 24-year-old employs a pitch-to-contact approach, so the low strikeout numbers are something fantasy managers should expect. This profile can provide fantasy value, but a closer look suggests it may be difficult for Elder. He allowed a lot of hard contact, with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in baseball's 26th and 37th percentiles, respectively, while posting a middling 8.5-degree launch angle. This leaves very little room for error, and his 4.81 SIERA suggests he got very lucky.

At Braves Fest Bryce Elder was asked about how to increase velocity, his answer is worth a listen.

Elder was an All-Star last season.@Braves @BravesOnBally pic.twitter.com/73ov3uduXM

— CJ (@CJNitkowski) January 30, 2024

More generally, Elder simply seems to have outperformed his skill set. His sinker and four-seamer average are just around 90 mph, so he will need to be very exact with his location to avoid damaging contact. He also took on a large workload due to injuries in the Braves rotation, but his role may be diminished should they be more healthy in 2024.

Elder offers a slim margin of fantasy value given his low strikeout rate and high contact rate. He got excellent results last season despite this, but it seems unlikely to be sustainable. Fantasy managers may be onto this given his current low ADP, but it bears mentioning for those who may not have the opportunity to dig deeper into underlying metrics.

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds currently have one of baseball’s most exciting, young rosters, and Andrew Abbott was part of that in 2023. The 24-year-old made 21 starts, going 8-6 with a 3.87 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 26.1% strikeout rate. While he may have left a positive first impression, fantasy managers should be cautious with him in 2024.

It didn’t even take Abbott a full season to start regressing, as his performance between the first and second half of the season varied greatly. His first seven starts yielded a 2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 28.9% strikeout rate while averaging about six IP/GS. However, his final 14 starts culminated in a 4.79 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 24.6% strikeout rate. I don’t think Abbott is as bad as his second-half numbers, but I do worry about him.

First, Abbott has the misfortune of pitching his home games at Great American Ball Park. He gave up some of the hardest contact in baseball with a 21.6-degree launch angle. That is a recipe for disaster in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and he seemed lucky to have escaped with a 10.7% HR/FB rate.

Second, he relied heavily on his four-seam fastball at 50.1%, which is a lot for a starting pitcher. The pitch is fine overall but is not so overpowering that he can get away with throwing it so much. Abbott does have a four-pitch mix, but his curveball yielded very poor results. This may simply be an issue of learning how to pitch more strategically at the big-league level, and while Abbott has plenty of time to do so, his performance could initially suffer for it.

Abbott showed encouraging upside in the first half of his rookie season, but he also showed clear aspects of his game in need of improvement, and his home ballpark doesn’t help. While I think Abbott can figure it out and be a serviceable fantasy starter throughout his career, I am hesitant to bank on that happening fully in 2024.

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

This final pitcher didn’t break out as clearly as the others but was still a surprising fantasy asset, particularly in points leagues. Dean Kremer played his part in the O’s strong 2023 season, going 13-5 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 21.4% strikeout rate in 32 starts and 172 2/3 IP. He is not in the same category as his rotation mate Bradish, but I think that he may regress while still providing fantasy value.

Starting with the potential for regression, Kremer doesn’t have any part of his game that stands out. He threw four pitches at least 10% of the time in 2023, and the top three were fastball variants. His results on those pitches were fine, but they did exceed expected results.

On the flip side, most of his stats were below league average but weren’t awful either. Given the team behind him, he was able to pick up 13 wins and pitched deep enough into games to toss 14 quality starts. His compilation of fantasy value may not be the most exciting, but it is nevertheless a stable source of points.

Kremer does not have the upside of Bradish, and while he likely overperformed in 2023 thanks to his team, the fact is he will still have all that support in 2024. His underlying profile indicates there is room for negative regression, but even if that happens, I think he can pitch well enough to provide back-end value in points leagues.

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