RADIO
Royal Troon had everything. Insane weather, dramatic birdies, both disaster and opportunity lurking around every hump and mound, and two players in the final pairing on Saturday both hitting Driver into a Par 3. There was not much more we could ask of the final Major in 2024, but the PGA Tour train doesn't stop moving for anybody. Many players will make their way back across the Atlantic en route to Minnesota this week for the 3M Open, once again held at TPC Twin Cities.
I'll do a deep dive on the golf course itself in my course preview, but it's admittedly tough to circle the wagons and get overly excited about the field strength for this event. The course will undoubtedly take some criticism for being homogenous and less thought-provoking, but I actually love the excitement that this course brings into play down the closing stretch. It often comes down to the 18th hole, with water canvassing the entire right side. Eagle is in play, but so is a double bogey. It often makes for a thrilling finish (see the Matthew Wolff year).
As always, with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the upcoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project course fits and past results in team golf formats. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping this unique event. Here are my top-10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why I think they are well-suited for success at the 3M Open
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No. 10 - Billy Horschel
In many cases, I believe there would be an aura of disappointment for players when they tee off on a Major Championship Sunday as the outright leader before ultimately losing. That was not the case with Billy Horschel, who couldn't hide the smile in his post-round interview, seemingly encouraged by his performance and proud of his effort. Making birdie on the final three holes certainly helped, but it was great to see Horschel really embrace the conditions and the atmosphere and bring his best stuff to Scotland.
Horschel finished in a tie for 2nd place in what was his best performance at a Major Championship ever. He showcased his elite ability to get up and down from tough spots around the greens and finished the week inside the top 10 in strokes gained Tee-to-Green and Putting. Assuming that he doesn't WD from the 3M Open, which could definitely happen given his exhausting week, he has to bring a lot of confidence into the week in Minnesota. He says, for now, he'll be on the range bright and early Tuesday morning.
After finishing T2, Billy Horschel had high praise for Xander Schauffele.
Also, he'll be grinding away on the range at the 3M Open on Tuesday. 😂 pic.twitter.com/q7QmbP196e
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) July 21, 2024
No. 9 - Taylor Pendrith
If you take a quick glance down the list of previous winners at the 3M Open, you'll notice the presence of players who absolutely bomb it off the teebox. I would classify Taylor Pendrith in that category as well. Sometimes erratic and inaccurate, but he averages 181 mph in ball speed and is about 10 yards longer on his drives than the average PGA Tour player. He's also been a solid putter of late, gaining strokes with the flat stick in 13 of his last 15 PGA Tour starts. Good Driver and good putter is a deadly combination at TPC Twin Cities.
You may not have caught much action from the Barracuda Championship this past weekend, as the Open Championship rightfully overshadowed it, but Pendrith played very well in his appearance and finished with a T5 result. He also got his first PGA Tour victory earlier this season in a similar birdie-fest style tournament at a different TPC golf course when he won the Byron Nelson by one stroke, finishing 23 under par that week at TPC Craig Ranch.
No. 8 - Keegan Bradley
There have been a lot of highly demanding and emotional developments off the golf course for Keegan Bradley in the last three weeks. A surprising pick to be the Captain of Team USA at the next Ryder Cup, it's hard to know exactly where Keegan Bradley's focus is at. He missed the cut at the British Open, but before that was on a solid run of ballstriking which culminated in a T2 finish at the Charles Schwab this summer.
You have to believe that Bradley would love nothing more than to qualify for his own team at Bethpage, right? I would say he's a long shot, but weeks like this present a great opportunity on what should be a very solid course fit for Bradley to get another win on the PGA Tour. His putter has been red hot by his standards lately, and if he can keep the ball in play and avoid the water off the tee, his strengths align nicely with this golf course.
No. 7 - Cam Davis
This young player has been putting in a ton of work lately, both on and off the golf course. Despite winning just two starts ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Davis did not qualify for The Open. That said, I think it speaks volumes to his commitment that he elected to still travel to Scotland and play in the Scottish Open. Davis finished T26 at The Renaissance Club, continuing his run of solid form.
I mentioned earlier about how the two most important elements to bring into this week are elite Driving and Putting. Davis checks both of those boxes for me. He has consistently shown up to this event and found himself near the top of the leaderboard. His last four starts at the 3M Open are T10, T16, T28, and T12. It was awesome to see him break through for his 2nd victory in Detroit last month and he has all the talent in the world to become one of the top players on the PGA Tour in the next couple of years.
Rocket Mortgage classic champion Cam Davis demonstrating his ability to swing the club both right and left handed. It’s amazing how pure he can swing it from both sides of the ball.@sam_golf
pic.twitter.com/YXWU5030QJ— Tour Pro 🏌️♂️ (@OfficialTourPro) June 30, 2024
No. 6 - Luke Clanton
It's a bit ridiculous to think that an amateur, still enrolled at Florida State University, could be in my power rankings to win a PGA Tour event. But here we are, and Luke Clanton is the real deal. I ran a stat model this week for the 3M Open, and while he does not have the catalog of data that other players possess, Clanton was the #1 ranked player in my stat model.
Clanton has finished inside the top 10 in his last two PGA Tour starts at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the John Deere Classic, where he posted a T2 result. He's effortlessly powerful and highly accurate off the tee, making him the top-ranked player in my model in terms of strokes gained Off The Tee. He reminds me a bit of Matthew Wolff, a highly popular young prospect with elite power and confidence, and we all know what Wolff was able to do with one of his first career starts at the 3M Open. I genuinely think Clanton can win this week and go full Nick Dunlap!
No. 5 - Sahith Theegala
On talent alone, Sahith Theegala is one of the premier names in the field for the 3M Open. He's highly marketable and liked by fans, and will once again be one of the most followed players around the property at TPC Twin Cities. The only issue is that he has missed three consecutive cuts at the 3M Open. It's a bit perplexing because he is a player that normally plays very well at these TPC-prototype courses, but has not been able to figure out TPC Twin Cities.
My inclination is that his struggles are due to the water hazards, which are mostly bordering the right side of the hole. That is Theegala's miss. You will rarely see him pull one left with his Driver, but he often hits this giant, wipey fade with the Driver that misses the fairway way right. You can get away with that in some courses, but not here. He would be higher in my ranking, but I just don't believe this is the best course fit for Theegala.
No. 4 - Keith Mitchell
The ball-striking machine that is Keith Mitchell will bring his talents to Minnesota in the hope of finally capturing a victory in the 2024 season. It's been a year of both optimism and disappointment for Mitchell, who has been in excellent form nearly all year but has failed to find himself in serious contention late on a Sunday afternoon. That said, if you trust the stats, Mitchell ranks in the top five in the field in both strokes gained Off the Tee and strokes gained Approach over his last 24 rounds played.
It feels like he is on the cusp, but I have felt that way for a few months now. He just needs one good putting week which has been hard to come by for Mitchell. He plays really well and tends to separate from the field on courses like TPC Twin Cities, which feature a heavy amount of water hazards. Mitchell has posted back-to-back top-5 results at the 3M Open. He should be able to unlock the par 5s with his distance and accuracy. If he gains two strokes putting this week, he just might win.
Keith Mitchell roasting a flat cut. Watch the ball flight. 🚀🚀🚀
I love how he always seems to stick his finish with perfect balance, no matter how hard he goes after it.
Something we can all aspire to. pic.twitter.com/FL69JBcJM3
— LKD (@LukeKerrDineen) March 23, 2024
No. 3 - Sam Burns
It has once again been a year of highs and lows for Sam Burns. There was a stretch in the late spring where he totally lost form, but as of late, he has to be optimistic about recording top-15 results in three of his last five starts. It honestly should have been four starts. He went off in the penultimate pairing at Royal Troon on Sunday, only to shoot 80 in the final round, in which he plummeted down the leaderboard.
Burns is highly erratic with his iron play. On Saturday at Troon, he was on fire. On Sunday, he ranked dead last in strokes gained Tee to Green. We're aware that his history would tell us that Burns possesses the ability to win when in contention, but that just simply has not been the reality over the last year. If he can hold it together for four rounds in Minnesota, he certainly has all the tools for success, but I just worry about that one bad round where things get loose, and he posts a big number.
No. 2 - Akshay Bhatia
When you look at the typical easy, point-and-shoot conditions at PGA Tour events, it's an environment where we often see Akshay Bhatia excel. When you introduce outside variables that are less predictable like we see at The Open Championship, Bhatia tends to be much less comfortable, thus explaining his missed cut last week. Before that, Bhatia posted back-to-back top-5 results on courses much more similar to TPC Twin Cities at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Travelers Championship.
His iron play has been excellent. Bhatia gained 6 strokes on Approach at the Rocket Mortgage, and his strokes gained per round only go up when looking specifically at courses where the winning score is -20 or better. This will be the first time that he has seen TPC Twin Cities, which is the only negative. That said, I'm confident that he will keep the ball in play, given that he ranks in the top five in Driving Accuracy, and from there, he can leverage his iron play and hot putter to find himself once again on the hunt for a win on the PGA Tour. Don't forget that he was this close to his third win in less than one year a few weeks ago.
Winning is hard.
The first miss inside 6 feet this week for Akshay Bhatia leads to bogey and a victory for Cam Davis. pic.twitter.com/MeifeElEsm
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 30, 2024
No. 1 - Tony Finau
There is a first time for everything. This will be the first, and probably only time, that I will rank a player #1 in power rankings after shooting an 80 in his most recent round of golf. That's the case with Tony Finau, and I am clearly willing to write off everything that we saw at Royal Troon when Finau got stuck in the bad weather wave and imploded his chances on Friday in Scotland.
TPC Twin Cities is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum in terms of golf course design that we saw at Royal Troon, and Finau has been great here. He won this event in 2022 and has played it every year that is has been at TPC Twin Cities. He has three finishes inside the top seven at this tournament in the last four years. He clearly has an eye for this golf course and even with the poor results last week, Finau is the best iron player in the entire field. He'll be right near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday and he's the highest-ranked player in the field for good reason. Finau is here to win, folks.
Enjoy The 3M Open and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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