IDP Fantasy Football Mock Draft: One-Man Mock for Individual Defensive Players

Odds are you’ve heard fantasy football analysts refer to their “home leagues” before, but many don’t know what that means. Home leagues are your oldest fantasy leagues with your best friends, or leagues that you join to bond with coworkers. They include all kinds of personalities and skill levels, and they will always have head-scratching picks from guys who think Brett Favre still plays. Some of these drafts will even involve someone getting drunk, drafting five tight ends, and dropping their pants to punctuate their final pick.

In these home leagues, you can expect the rankings to fly out the window after the first beer, as many of your friends pay a premium for their favorite players. When that’s the type of league you’re in, or if you play with a bunch of managers who draft differently than most analysts, it pays to think outside of the box in your draft preparations. That’s why I like to do my annual “One Man Mock with Multiple Personalities,” which is an attempt to help explain what might happen with your friends and why.

For this Multiple Personality mock, I will project your home league fantasy draft (including Individual Defensive Players) through 12 different personalities/teams. Some of these personalities will overlap, but each will be driven by fantasy biases and tendencies that most are familiar with. While these personalities will not always control and sometimes logic will need to find its way in, the personalities will inform many trends, reaches, and team builds overall.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

The IDP Mock Draft Personalities

For our purposes, the personalities/teams I will adopt are as follows….

1. The Steady Eddies- Steady Eddies will avoid injury risks unless the value is just too good, and they will value high-floor assets.
2. The Mavericks- The Mavericks aren’t afraid of injured players, and they don't pay much attention to roster needs. They draft “their guys” regardless of position or value.
3. The Hype Trains- These ‘hype’ oriented managers let hyperbole and camp buzz heavily influence their choices.
4. Zero RB 4 Life- Those who utilize the ‘Zero RB’ strategy will wait to draft a running back until Round 5 or later, preferring to load up on talent at other positions instead.
5. The Best Players Available- This team will traditionally draft the best player on their board, regardless of position.
6. Half-Back 2 Da Future- This team utilizes a heavy running back style of drafting.
7. The Basic B's- Basic drafters will usually draft based on ADP and popular opinions/rankings.
8. The Wild Cards- A Wild Card manager, like the Mavericks, will be unpredictable. They will often wait to fill big roster holes until it's too late and will ignore insurance policies.
9. Jack Reacher- Jack Reacher will reach our players… duh.
10. The Trend Setters- This team likes to start the runs on positions like QB and TE rather than be at their end. They value having the best player at a position, regardless of positional depth.
11. Voodoo Veterans- This team values established veterans and will target guys they’ve seen play in the league before. They will consider rookies, but they rather bet on a vet having a career season.
12. Chalk Blockers- This team will stick closely to their app’s ADP (average draft position) and rarely deviate from an app's recommendation for who to pick.

Fantasy Football League Rules

With that covered, it's also important for you to understand that we will be mocking/drafting in the most common and shallow IDP formats here. The league rules we will be using are as follows….

1. This league will start one DL position, one LB, and one DB.
2. Our IDP scoring for this mock consists of the following:
   1. 1.0 points per solo tackle
   2. ½-point for a half-tackle
   3. 3.0 points for sacks
   4. 2.0 points for safeties/PDs/FR
   5. 4.0 points for forced turnovers (i.e., INTs and FFs)
3. This will be a redraft format, not a dynasty.
4. This will be a non-Superflex draft, meaning only one starting QB for each team.

If you've made it through that explanation, we can finally get on to the fun stuff! So without further ado, let's get to the picks!

Rounds 1 and 2 - IDP Mock Draft

Throw ADP Out the Window?

Tony Pollard and Garrett Wilson are two players who are undervalued at their current cost. As of this writing, the ADP on Pollard (17^th overall) and Wilson (21^st) is low, as both could lead their positions in 2023. Derrick Henry is going ahead of Pollard and shouldn’t. Davante Adams is ahead of Wilson in most drafts and shouldn’t be either. I’ll always prefer being out on vets a year early, rather than a year late.

On the flip side, two players being overdrafted in this mock are Adams and Breece Hall. Adams’ quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo) has played a full NFL season just once in his career, and Vegas’ backup passers are truly uninspiring. Adams can produce with anyone, but will he return on ADP if Brian Hoyer is his guy? Meanwhile, Hall is slowly being brought back from injury, and he now has competition from Dalvin Cook. Neither of those things has impacted Hall's redraft ADP yet, but they should.

The 2023 QB Rush:

Until this year, fantasy analysts have almost always agreed that non-Superflex leagues should wait on quarterbacks. That view has changed significantly this year for two reasons. One reason is injuries. Only eight passers played a full 17 games in 2022. The Jets, 49ers, and Dolphins alone fielded 11 quarterbacks last year. This rash of injuries left many fantasy managers reeling in 2022, and PTSD from those struggles has strongly influenced many QB opinions this season.

The second reason we see passers being elevated is what I call the “2022 Bottleneck.” By this, I am referring to the large gap between last year’s elite fantasy QBs and the lower tier of starters. For example, fantasy’s QB2 last season (Josh Allen) scored 97.6 more fantasy points than QB5 (Geno Smith). Fantasy’s QB4 (Joe Burrow) scored nearly four more points per game than QB10. This gap has inflated demand for elite passers, driving up the cost of Patrick Mahomes, Allen, and Jalen Hurts.

While people in home leagues have always drafted elite quarterbacks high, you now have analysts finally supporting those moves. Because of that, you should expect quarterbacks to go even higher in this year’s home drafts. That could force many managers to reach beyond their comfort zone to nab an Allen or Justin Fields in the second or fourth rounds, respectively. Meanwhile, more traditional drafters will continue waiting, stacking Tua Tagovailoa and Anthony Richardson later.

Rounds 3-5 - IDP Mock Draft

The Rise of QBs Will Force Down Quality Talent:

All obvious WR1 candidates will be gone in the first 22 picks of most drafts. The tier behind that has some tremendous consolation options, though. Guys like Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith may not be the #1 options on their offenses, but they are fine top receivers for those chasing a Travis Kelce/Tony Pollard combo in the first two rounds. Drake London, Jerry Jeudy, and Marquise Brown are other quality options in the fourth and fifth rounds.

Meanwhile, this year is seeing better RB options fall to this range of picks than usual. Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, and Travis Etienne all project as bell cow backs for their teams, and each should be available in the third. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins, Dameon Pierce, and Jahmyr Gibbs are usually available in the fourth or fifth. With highly drafted QBs forcing these premium players down boards, fantasy managers can afford to be fluid with their early picks instead of committing to one set strategy or position.

Rounds 6-9 - IDP Mock Draft

To RB or Not to RB:

As I addressed above, several lead backs are available in the second tier of drafts. Some have established roles on good offenses, like Mixon and Etienne. Others should see elite volume on less effective units, like Najee Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. However, those guys will cost you a third-round pick or more. For a much cheaper price, Zero RB teams can get tremendous RB value in the sixth or seventh rounds instead.

Ideal Zero RB targets in this range include David Montgomery, Isiah Pacheco, James Conner, Rachaad White, and Alvin Kamara. Not all of those players will fall into this range in your drafts, but several will. For Zero RB teams willing to gamble on a true RB1 option, Javonte Williams is the ideal home run swing thanks to his elite talent, role in a Sean Payton offense, and a reportedly strong return from injury. Montgomery, Kamara, James Cook, and Conner are safer options, though.

Manage Expectations for Rookie WRs:

There was a time when rookie wide receivers were taboo in redraft leagues. They were largely considered late-round flyers and rarely produced elite statistics in their first year. Then a string of strong rookie performances (Odell Beckham Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, etc.) convinced people to take freshman receivers in the fourth, fifth, and sixth rounds of redrafts. That trend shouldn’t continue in 2023, though.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Zay Flowers are all fine dynasty options with breakout potential if injuries strike. However, none of these players had the elite college film or production that Chase or Jefferson did. Worse, only Flowers has a realistic chance of being the top wideout on his team in 2023. Where Jefferson and Chase merited going in the fifth or sixth round as rookies, the top rookie in this class (Flowers or JSN) belongs at the seven/eight turn.

Don’t Reach on Defenders in 2023:

Historically, this is the range where "casual" IDP managers will draft the top defenders in fantasy. There was a time when that kind of investment made sense because Darius Leonard (now Shaquille Leonard) and T.J. Watt were pacing their positions in fantasy points by a healthy margin. Unfortunately, those superstars are no longer the hands-down leaders at their positions, and no one has risen to match their formerly elite fantasy values.

Because the gap between fantasy's top LBs and DLs has largely closed, managers in shallow IDP formats can afford to wait to fill their defensive positions. That said, casual IDP leagues will always see someone reach for the top defenders so they can "win the position." Derwin James is the best bang for your buck if you’re a shallow league manager and want to “win” a defensive position. James has paced the thin DB market in PPG for two years straight and should continue to do so in 2023.

Rounds 10-13 - IDP Mock Draft

Defender Central:

This range is where most defenders come off the board in your casual IDP drafts. This is the range where the offensive talent starts to dwindle. Thus, it is a fine time to nail down starters at the defensive end. You'll notice teams that couldn't afford to nab some of the better defenders in this range were in a tough spot because their early draft philosophy left them thin at RB or WR.

Jalen Pitre, Talanoa Hufanga, and Myles Garrett are all top-five players at their position who should be available in this range. They are good reasons to pass on taking Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt, or Derwin James too early. Each has the potential to lead their positions in points if all goes well.

One defender who could end up going higher than most expect is Kayvon Thibodeaux. The former Duck has name recognition as a Jadeveon Clowney-level talent in college, and Thibodeaux is having a great summer in New York. Do not be surprised if the Oregon product is one of the bigger breakouts in IDP. He could be drafted like he’s already broken through.

Cheap Insurance with Upside:

This year’s rookie class is particularly deep at RB, even if the superstar talent dried up when Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs went early in your draft. Players like Tank Bigsby and Roschon Johnson have had very good camps, meaning they could be usable insurance backs with RB2 upside if there’s an injury. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren is routinely outperforming Najee Harris this preseason. It may be a matter of time before he takes the lead role. At his cost, Warren is a steal.

Rounds 14-16 - IDP Mock Draft

IDP Bargains Available Late in Shallow Leagues:

Perhaps my favorite IDP breakout this year is Jaelan Phillips, who has been getting tons of buzz out of the Dolphins' camp. The former Hurricane was seventh in the NFL in both quarterback pressures and quarterback hits last season. He finished 11^th amongst all edge rushers in total tackles. If Phillips can turn more pressures into sacks, he should finish as a top-10 DL this season.

Another name that may jump out at you is Jordyn Brooks. The Texas Tech alum finished third in solo tackles last year and sixth in total takedowns. Brooks' stock is currently down because he is coming off a torn ACL, and Bobby Wagner is back in town. However, there is talk Brooks could be back for Week 1. His tackle totals were elite when Wagner was previously there. The injury is enough to scare me away from Brooks early, but he has tremendous upside as an IR stash or last-round pick.

Late-Round Flyers:

Some of the names in this range are better suited for dynasty. That said, guys like Deuce Vaughn, Justyn Ross, and Puka Nakua are getting significant preseason hype. They are all worth a late-round flyer if you have room to stash them on your bench. But they are likely to go higher than they should if you draft with guys who let training camp buzz drive their decisions. Ross, Vaughn, and Nakua all have outside shots of being fantasy relevant this year and could be good value if taken very late.

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