Nico Collins (WR, TEX): 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target Around 112 Overall

CURRENT ADP: ~177

ANALYSIS:

Nico Collins is set to provide value at his Round 13 ADP. He became the 14th wide receiver to be selected during the 2021 NFL Draft when Houston secured him in Round 3. He has yet to establish his viability as a reliable resource for fantasy managers as he enters his third year. Collins has been limited to averages of 5.3 targets, 2.9 receptions, and 38.6 yards per game during his first two seasons. Those averages improved to a team-high nine targets/4.8 receptions/44 yards during his final four games in 2022.

Collins also missed three matchups due to a shoulder issue during his rookie year, then was sidelined for seven games last season (foot/groin). However, he has also accumulated the most targets (126), receptions (70), receiving yards (927), and air yards (1,381) among all wide receivers who are returning to Houston’s roster, following the departure of Brandin Cooks. The 6'4", 215-pound Collins also possesses the size and speed to function as the Texans' most targeted vertical weapon.

To be clear, this is not a suggestion that Collins is firmly affixed atop Houston’s depth chart, as the Texans' offense is undergoing a significant transformation. DeMeco Ryans begins his first year as the team's head coach and Bobby Slowik has been entrusted with responsibilities as offensive coordinator after both coaches worked together in San Francisco for the last six seasons.

The Texans also selected Tank Dell (Round 3) and Xavier Hutchinson (Round 6) during the NFL draft, while also infusing 31-year-old Robert Woods and former Cowboy Noah Brown into the equation. Former second-round selection John Metchie has also surfaced in training camp after missing the 2022 regular season (leukemia treatment) and should seize a role in the reshaped aerial attack.

Collins should still emerge from training camp with responsibilities as the Texans' downfield weapon, and the arrival of C.J. Stroud has also supplied Collins with the most enticing opportunity of his career. Davis Mills was guiding Houston’s offense in eight of Collins’ matchups in 2022, while Collins operated with Kyle Allen during the other two contests. However, the Texans’ selection of Stroud with the second overall pick during last April’s draft will accelerate Stroud's rise into the starting role.

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