2023 Fantasy Football Blind Resumes – WR Edition

April 13, 2023

Rob takes a deep dive into nine blind wide receiver resumes to compare their 2022 stats to see if the difference in their projected 2023 ADP can be explained.

One of my favorite, absolute favorite, parts of the offseason is the incredibly fun blind resumes you can find between two different players with vastly different ADPs whose stats from the last year are damn near identical. Some of these that you’re about to see are simply uncanny and to be frank, hard to believe. They’re true all the same.

I’ll be the first to admit that blind resumes can be deceiving because we’re looking at numbers in a vacuum. There’s no context. We’re not factoring in the quarterback or the offense or about a million other little things that can impact a player’s fantasy season outcome. However, we can factor those things in after the fact and ask ourselves, should the difference in ADP be as drastic as it is? Do we need to readjust our priors on one or both of these players?

Sometimes, name value can have a funny way of impacting how we value players, but at the end of the day, we’re buying their stats. Is the cost of admission worth it? This is my first series of blind resume articles and today, we’ll be starting with the wide receiver position. I have nine blind resumes that I think will really have you second-guessing what you thought you knew. Let’s get started.

Blind Resume No. 1

UD-ADP = Underdog ADP     WR-Rank = Current WR ranking on Underdog     TPG = Targets Per Game     TS = Target Share

RPG = Receptions Per Game     YPG = Yards Per Game     YPR = Yards Per Reception     AYPG = Air Yards Per Game

aDot = Average Depth of Target     RRPG = Routes Run Per Game     YPRR = Yards Per Route Run     TPRR = Targets Per Route Run

PPR-PPG = Full-PPR PPG     x-PPR PPG = Expected Full-PPR PPG

This one should absolutely floor you. Looking at the numbers and the ADP, it makes absolutely no sense. None. You can see from the table above that player No. 2 has a higher target share, more yards per game, higher yards per route run, and the most important thing, actually scored more full-PPR PPG. No one in their right mind is picking player No. 1 off the information above.

Of course, there’s a catch, right? There’s always a catch. Well, I eliminated four games from player two’s sample in which they did not play over 60% of the snaps due to injuries. However, I guess now is a good time to tell you that I also eliminated four games from player one’s sample in which they did not play over 60% of the snaps due to injuries. Do I have your attention yet?

What if I told you player No. 1’s offense was in the top-10 in pass attempts in 2022 compared to the middle of the pack for player No. 2’s offense, would that make you lean towards player one or two? On one hand, since both players are still on the same team with the same quarterback, player one will likely have more team volume in 2023, but on the other hand, player two outperformed player one with less team volume. What if that team volume increases?

What if you knew player one’s offense was in the top-10 in overall points as a team and player two’s offense was bottom-five? There’s a very fair argument if player two was able to put up those stats in a bottom-five offense, any positive regression from a team standpoint would really make him the ideal selection, correct? Time to make a selection! Think of this as a two-step decision – who do you think is the better option straight-up and who would you draft based on price?

Blind Resume No. 1 Reveal

Player one is Tee Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals. Player two is Jerry Jeudy of the Denver Broncos. Yes, Higgins has the better track record, however, it’s probably closer than you might think.

As a rookie, Jeudy had 113 targets, 52 receptions, 852 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Drew Lock started 13 games for Denver and he led the league in unrealized air yards so with even slightly better quarterback play, he would’ve been much better. Tee Higgins had 108 targets, 67 receptions, 908 yards, and 6 touchdowns. While Joe Burrow did tear his ACL that season, Higgins did get to play 10 games with Burrow before succumbing to the same level of quarterback play that Jeudy was forced to deal with all season. Still, fairly similar numbers all things considered.

The difference is in their sophomore seasons. Higgins exploded for just shy of 1,110 yards, while Jeudy dealt with an injury-plagued season that saw him play just 10 games, and in four of those 10 games, he played fewer than 60% of the snaps. He was never healthy and quite passes from a combination of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater.

In their third season, Jeudy took a major step forward despite the awful play from quarterback, Russell Wilson, and as you can see from the table above, Jeudy out-performed Higgins in a lot of categories. Now, with head coach Sean Payton in the fold and an offense that cannot get any worse, fantasy managers should be all over Jeudy and maybe, just maybe, Higgins is being slightly overvalued.

Blind Resume No. 2

Full disclosure on this one: both players are now on new teams so we have to take the stats above with a grain of salt. Player one’s new team scored slightly fewer points than his former team, with both coming in the bottom-12. Meanwhile, player two’s new team was in the top five in scoring while his old team was bottom-five. Player one’s new team passed slightly less than their former team, but both were in the bottom five in overall pass attempts. Player two’s new team also passed slightly less than their former team, going from a team slightly above-average in overall pass attempts to slightly below average.

Knowing that bit of context, which way are you currently leaning? Player 1 has a significant advantage in the target share department, but other than that, most of their stats are very equal. Both players have a tremendous track record of success. Player 2 has six 1,000-yard seasons in his last eight years. Player one has three 1,100-yard seasons in his last four years.

I totally get saying that you’d prefer Player 1. If we eliminate the cost of admission, I would say the same thing. However, is the difference in almost four rounds worth the higher target share especially knowing that player one’s new team actually passed less and scored fewer points than the team he was on in 2022?

Blind Resume No. 2 Reveal

Player 1 is DJ Moore and Player two is Brandin Cooks. How sure are we that the Chicago Bears are going to pass the ball at a league-average rate? How sure are we that Justin Fields is going to take a significant step forward as a passer? Because right now, Moore’s ADP signals that both things are virtually guaranteed. Meanwhile, Cooks is going to be playing on a top-five scoring offense and is locked in as the No. 2 target behind CeeDee Lamb.

I’m just saying, when you factor in the cost of admission, I’ll gladly take Brandin Cooks here and I don’t think it’s a stretch, by any sense of the imagination Cooks out-scores Moore in 2023. That probability is a lot higher than the gap in their ADPs.

Blind Resume No. 3

Okay, this has got to have your minds churning, am I right? These players are almost identical. The same targets per game, very similar target shares, virtually the same number of receptions per game, similar air yards per game, aDot, routes run, targets per route run, and expected full-PPR PPG. Across the board, these players are immensely similar, so why such a big difference in ADP?

For player one, I did eliminate one game in which they left the game early and played just 50% of the snaps. Player two did not have any injury-shortened games. It should also be noted that player one’s starting quarterback did get hurt and he was forced to catch passes from a backup quarterback for a handful of games in 2022. However, I guess it’s only fair to also include that player two’s starting quarterback in 2022 will be entering the 2023 season as a backup. So while player one had to deal with backup caliber quarterback play for a few games, player two had to deal with that for the entire season.

As you look at these two players, it seems pretty clear player two is the preferred choice when considering the price and it's pretty close, even straight up. When we look at the air yards per game and their aDot, it doesn't really make sense that there's such a gap in yards per reception. That same sentiment holds true with their yards per game – it doesn't really make sense. Well, let me attempt to clarify it. Player one had just 504 unrealized air yards, which was 34th among receivers. Player two, however, had 741 unrealized air yards, the 12th-most among receivers. Oh, and there's every reason in the world to believe player two received a quarterback upgrade this offseason. Did that give it away? Time for your final answer...

Blind Resume No. 3 Reveal

Player one is Jaylen Waddle. Player two is Terry McLaurin. While I will not talk poorly about the player Waddle is – he’s phenomenal – I think we’re underappreciating just how good McLaurin has been. He’s played with some truly atrocious quarterbacks and he’s had 1,100 in two out of the past two seasons and 1,050 in the third. He’s really good too! And he might just be playing with his best quarterback in 2023.

Jacoby Brissett, as a starter for the Browns last year, helped Amari Cooper to a top-12 wide receiver finish. The Commanders also hired former Chiefs’ offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy and it’s a fair expectation that he should help improve the team’s overall offense.

I’m not saying Waddle isn’t worth the pick at his current ADP because the Dolphins’ offense is going to run through Tyreek Hill and Waddle again, but McLaurin looks like an absolute steal at his current price tag and he should be someone that everyone is hammering at his current price.

Blind Resume No. 4

This one is really fun because if we eliminate their fantasy points scored, they both look like studly full-PPR options. I mean, 8.5+ targets per game? Come on, yes, please! 25.5% or higher target shares. Everything about the two of them screams major PPR asset and yet, neither of them really was in 2022.

Looking forward to 2023, I won't sugarcoat it – neither player's surrounding circumstances appear to have gotten better. Obviously, when you're looking at these kinds of targets per game and under 60 yards per game, we can rightfully assume the quarterback play for each player was pretty darn awful. That is most likely to be true again this season, as well, but if you had to pick a player whose quarterback situation is likely to be a bit better this year, it's likely to be player two. Who ya got?

Blind Resume No. 4 Reveal

Michael Pittman is player one and Diontae Johnson is player two. I have no idea why anyone would pay the price to draft Pittman when you can just draft Johnson, who is essentially the exact same player two rounds later.

For starters, Johnson has been the better receiver over the course of their respective careers. He has the best individual season and the best-individual fantasy season. Yes, Kenny Pickett is pretty meh, but who is the quarterback for the Colts? Gardner Minshew? Anthony Richardson? Will Levis? There is nothing about the Colts’ offense that looks any different than 2022.

Most draft analysts indicate that Richardson and Levis are both projects and unlikely to be ready to play in year one, at least not well. I don’t think it’s a big stretch to say that Pickett will have a more successful 2023 season than whoever is behind center for the Colts.

We can all see that Pittman scored 3.4 PPG more than Johnson, but we also all know that Johnson caught literally zero touchdowns, a gigantic anomaly that will not repeat itself. Just look at what happened with Miles Sanders from 2021 to 2022. He’s going to score more touchdowns and that alone makes up for the difference in scoring last season. If you can’t see the difference, don’t pay the difference. Just pass on Pittman and draft Johnson instead.

Blind Resume No. 5

So, this one is likely going to result in making people feel some sort of way. I suspect I won’t be able to get many people on board with this one, but we’re going to give it a try anyway. We’re going to get this out of the way right away. In player two’s sample, one week was eliminated due to an injury-shortened week, in which they played just 44% of the snaps. For player one, two weeks were eliminated due to early injuries, which left them playing just 9% and 35% of the snaps in those two respective outings. In every other game, player one played 68% of the snaps in every game and over 85% of the snaps in seven of the 11 remaining games he played in. We’re trying to be as fair as possible here.

Still, it’s crazy just how similar these two players were across the board. They averaged the same number of targets, but player two was able to accomplish that despite running fewer routes and thus, having a solidly higher target share and target per route run rate. Where player one has the advantage is in their yards per game and yards per route run. This is the biggest factor for the difference in their full-PPR PPG.

However, if we look at their expected full-PPR PPG from 2022, we can see that it’s almost identical. It should also be noted that player one’s offense was in the top three in overall pass attempts while player two’s offense was middle of the pack. Player one’s offense was also just slightly above-average in points scored, meanwhile player two’s offense was bottom-five. How does that impact how you’re feeling about both players?

Blind Resume No. 5 Reveal

Player one is Mike Williams. Player two is Courtland Sutton. I know how everyone feels about him, but I’m not sure how fair some of those feelings are. He played in 15 games last year, with one of them being one where he played just 40% of the snaps, ran under 40% of the routes, and left with an injury before getting a single target. If we take his overall stats and instead use 14 games played, he was on pace for 132 targets, 78 receptions, and 1,006 yards. That was despite Wilson playing like garbage and the Broncos being the worst-scoring team in the NFL. Intrigued?

Well, I can’t say that I didn’t try. I do think fantasy managers are likely too high on Williams and slightly too low on Sutton, assuming he stays in Denver. Russell Wilson and the Denver offense cannot be any worse and we should be expecting a regression to the mean, even if Nathaniel Hackett was still the head coach. Now that he’s been replaced by Sean Payton we should, at least I am, expecting a slightly bigger boost on that regression because of his offensive genius.

Blind Resume No. 6

This one might be my favorite blind resume. Actually no, I’m sorry. That one belongs to the very first comparison, but this is a really close second. Looking at the numbers above, there are virtually zero reasons why anyone would pick player one. Forget the price, player two should be the selection straight-up. When you factor in the three-round plus difference in ADP and this becomes an absolute smash. Take it to the bank.

Player two struggled with injuries this past season. He played in just 10 games, but the above sample is using eight of those contests because, in the other two, he got injured and played just 30% of the snaps, and in the other one he was brought along slowly in his first appearance and played just 32% of the snaps. Player one played over 65% of the snaps in every single game they appeared in and played over 90% of the snaps in nine out of their total 17 games played.

Player two has the advantage in targets per game, receptions per game, yards per game, routes run per game, full-PPR PPG, and expected full-PPR PPG. He’s also three rounds cheaper. What makes this blind comparison even more fun is the fact that Player 2 will be in Player 1’s offense in 2023 and in Player 1’s 2022 role.

Blind Resume No. 6 Reveal

Player 1 is CeeDee Lamb. Player 2 is Keenan Allen. Former Cowboys’ offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, after parting ways with Dallas, signed a contract to be the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers. Fantasy managers should be expecting Allen to play the role Lamb did in 2022. I absolutely love Lamb and Moore’s absence doesn’t change that. He’s worthy of his current ADP. This blind resume is more so to point out just how absurd of a steal Keenan Allen is at this point. He’s a legit WR1 you can draft in the fourth round.

Fantasy managers shouldn't hesitate to draft Lamb at his current price. He's well worth it and will be a top-10 wide receiver in 2023. However, right now, fantasy managers are blatantly ignoring Keenan Allen's second half of his 2022 season. The hire of Kellen Moore is only going to help the Chargers' offense. Justin Herbert had a 5.2% and 5.7% touchdown rate in 2020 and 2021 before that number dropped significantly to 3.6% last season. Fantasy managers should be expecting that number to climb back up to where he had been the previous two seasons. That's going to help Allen's scoring potential. He's one of the best values in all of fantasy football right now.

Blind Resume No. 7

Here we have a diaper dandy vs a boring, old veteran. Not surprisingly, the diaper dandy with all the excitement of being the shiny, new toy has a much higher ADP and ranking. The difference between these two players is almost three rounds, however, you wouldn’t know it by looking at their 2022 stats.

We see an almost identical number of targets per game, and yards per game. Player one has a slightly higher target share, but Player two averages more receptions per game. Player one was incredibly efficient last season, en route to a 2.47 yards per route run, but player two was no slouch either. When we look at their full-PPR PPG, we see that player two actually out-scored player 1 by a decent margin, although their expected full-PPR PPG was almost exactly the same. So, what gives?

Player one is believed to have gotten a quarterback upgrade this offseason and while I’ll technically agree this occurred, I think it’s fair to suggest the value player one is receiving due to that move is bigger than the level of improvement at quarterback. However, despite Player one getting a quarterback upgrade, Player two's offense was in the top-1o in points scored, while Player one's offense bottom-10. Player two's offense also passed the ball 60+ more times in 2022.

Blind Resume No. 7 Reveal

Player one is Chris Olave. He had a fantastic season and is a player on the rise. Player two is Tyler Lockett. He’s one of the most disrespected and undervalued receivers in the league. Over the past four seasons, Lockett has never had less than 73 receptions, 1,033 yards, or eight touchdowns in any one season. That’s the stat line you’d get if you’d take his worst output in these three statistical categories over the past four seasons. He has full-PPR PPG finishes of WR17 (2022), WR18 (2021), WR12 (2020), and WR23 (2019). Just for reference, Olave was WR26 last year.

Is Olave priced too high? Not necessarily. You could make the argument he is a little bit, sure. Is Lockett a screaming good deal right now? Absolutely. Geno Smith will be back in Seattle and Lockett will be back to tag-team with DK Metcalf as one of the best 1-2 receiver punches in the NFL. This is one comparison where we're not knocking the player with the higher ADP, we're just bringing attention to another player who has a lot of value at their current ADP.

Blind Resume No. 8

We’re going to bypass the suspense on this one. Player one is Stefon Diggs. Player two is Marquise Brown, only using his Weeks 1-6, prior to his ankle injury. He did return late in the year but did not appear to be 100%. The Cardinals were also down to their third quarterback at that time and DeAndre Hopkins was on the field and it seems virtually guaranteed he’ll be traded before the season starts.

I love Diggs and he’s totally worth the investment at his current ADP. Remember when I talked about context before? Well, it’s important here. Kyler Murray won’t be ready for Week 1 and might miss as much as the first month of the season. That is going to negatively impact Brown’s ADP. Josh Allen and the Bills are also the much, much better quarterback and offense, respectively compared to Murray and the Cardinals. I totally get all of that, which is why I’m not harping about Diggs’ ADP and why I said he’s worth the investment.

But look at Marquise Brown! And the similarities do not end there. Check this out…

This table is from 2021. For Marquise Brown, it includes Weeks 1–13. This is because in Week 14, Lamar Jackson was injured and didn’t play the rest of the season, but prior to Jackson’s injury, Brown was essentially performing as if he was Stefon Diggs, even in 2021. Then last year, prior to his ankle injury, Brown was at it again, doing an impersonation of Diggs.

Again, this blind comparison isn’t to knock Stefon Diggs. This blind comparison is to say the year Brown and his quarterback stay healthy, he’s going to smash and he’s going to smash in a really big way. We know that won’t happen in 2023, at least not for 100% of the season. However, Murray’s likely absence is being baked into his price and makes Brown a monster value right now.

Blind Resume No. 9

These players might as well be the exact same person. Every single number across the entire board here is so incredibly similar. The difference is one costs a fifth-rounder and the other one is basically free. One is being valued as a WR3 and the other is a WR6. Why pay the difference if you can’t see the difference, and make no mistake, there is absolutely no difference here.

The reason player one is ranked higher is that he's a younger player and there's reason to believe he's going to get better. That's a fair argument, however, is it enough to justify this significant gap in ADP? Drafting a WR3-valued player with a target share south of 16%, and a target per route run of just 15% certainly comes with some risks. Player one also ended up scoring a touchdown on every 11th touch. That's not something fantasy managers should be expecting in 2022.

Blind Resume No. 9 Reveal

Player one is George Pickens and player two is DJ Chark. And before you get too upset, yes, Pickens’ numbers above are post-Chase Claypool trade. So, in his sample, he was the bonafide No. 2 for the Steelers and had eight games to get his feet wet. In the end, he was still just basically DJ Chark.

Chark did switch teams this offseason, but I think there’s an argument to be made the switch could be a positive one for his fantasy prospects. For starters, he won’t have to compete with Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson, who had been in Detroit for half of Chark’s 2022 season. There’s an argument that Chark could very well end up being the Panthers’ No. 1 receiver this season.

After the past few blind comparisons where I’ve had nothing wrong with the higher player’s ADP, here I do. I get the appeal of Pickens, but his price tag is much too rich for my blood. It’s hard to see just where the upside is with

Pickens with Johnson and Freiermuth in Pittsburgh? Freiermuth out-targeted Pickens even after Claypool left, so is the best thing we can say about Pickens that he’ll be Pickett’s No. 3 target? If that’s the case, I am 100% out. Give me Chark at his current cost without question.

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