2023 Fantasy Football Blind Resumes – RB Edition

Rob takes a deep dive into seven blind running back resumes to compare their 2022 stats to see if the difference in their 2023 projected ADP can be explained.

We’re back with some more blind resume comparisons. This time we’ll be focusing on the running back position, but if you didn’t get the chance, be sure to read this article about nine blind wide receivers here. Be sure to stay tuned for more blind resumes as the NFL season gets closer.

Now, admittedly, the running back position is a bit harder to do. For starters, there’s been so much running back movement this offseason, it’s been difficult to keep track of. Also, we know there’s a long way to go before this position is settled. Still, despite the difficulty, that didn’t stop me from being able to share with you eight blind resumes that should get you thinking.

We know that numbers can be manipulated, but we also know fantasy scoring for running backs is largely driven by targets and carries inside the five and ten-yard line. We’re going to focus on these numbers quite a bit when we’re doing these blind resumes. The other important thing to remember is that each comparison isn’t to knock the player with the higher ADP. Sometimes their ADP is just fine, but rather we want to point out another player whose utilization doesn’t line up with his ADP and comparing them to another player with similar utilization, but a higher ADP can illustrate that. Alright, let’s get started.

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Blind Resume No. 1

UD-ADP = Underdog ADP     RB-Rank = Current RB Rank on Underdog     CPG = Carries Per Game     RPG = Rushing Yards Per Game

YAC/Carry = Yards After Contact Per Carry    RZ Carry = Red Zone Carries Per Game     Inside-10 = Carries Inside the 10-Yard Line Per Game

Inside-5 = Carries Inside the 5-Yard Line Per Game     TPG = Targets Per Game     RPG = Receptions Per Game     RYPG = Receiving Yards Per Game

PPR PPG = Full-PPR PPG     x-PPR PPG = Expected Full-PPR PPG

I’m going to come out swinging here with my favorite blind resume comparison of the bunch. As you can see, these players are pretty much identical. Very similar touch totals and identical yard-per-game totals. However, you can see that player two actually averaged more carries inside the five and 10-yard line compared to his competition here and also averaged more targets per game. This explains why while player one had the higher full-PPR PPG average, player two had a higher expected full-PPR PPG.

Looking at these numbers there are absolutely zero reasons why anyone would pick player one. However, let’s add a bit of context to these numbers, shall we? Player one’s team offense was just inside the top-10 in scoring, while player two’s offense was bottom-10. While player two averaged more carries inside the 10-yard line, we should expect player one to have more scoring opportunities.

Another important factor to illustrate is that player two’s offense has historically targeted their running back position at a much higher clip compared to player one’s offense. This past season, player two’s offense was 20th in running back targets and player one’s offense was 26th. In 2021 they ranked 16th and 32nd, respectively. However, in 2020, their teams ranked 25th and 19th and in 2019, they ranked 17th and 27th. Advantage player two for historically targeting the running back position more frequently.

Player two’s offensive line was also better last season, according to PFF. PFF ranked player two’s offensive line as the 16th-best unit, while player one’s offensive line ranked 27th. Now that we added a bit of context, which player are you taking? Time to make your final answer.

Blind Resume No. 1 Reveal

Player one is Ken Walker of the Seattle Seahawks, post-Rasheed Penny injury. I eliminated Week 13 from his sample because he left early due to injury and played just three total snaps. Player two is Najee Harris post-bye week, starting in Week 10 when he seemed to finally get over his lingering foot injury. Week 12 was eliminated from his sample because he left the game early after playing just 10 snaps.

Is Ken Walker being valued a bit too high? I think he is and that’s largely because of his low target numbers. In full PPR, it’s extremely difficult to get into that top-five range without scoring a bunch of touchdowns, being Derrick Henry-levels of efficient rushing the ball or catching the ball more. Expecting any of those three to come to fruition for Walker seems unlikely and because of that, it seems like you’re likely drafting him at his ceiling.

On the flip side, I like Harris’s price tag a lot more. There’s plenty of room for excess value at his RB14 cost. He finished higher than that as a rookie and he finished higher than that in the second half of the 2022 season. He also has a history of being involved in the passing game. I love Walker the player, but price matters. Here, it seems like the better bang for your buck is definitely with Najee Harris.

Blind Resume No. 2

Here’s another one of my favorites. On the surface, these guys look incredibly similar. The only difference that jumps off the page at you is the difference of about 16 rushing yards per game. There are three reasons for that. The first reason is, player one was solidly better than player two in yards after contact per carry, averaging almost a full yard more.

The second and third reasons tie in together – offensive line play. Player one’s offensive line was graded as the third-best unit by PFF. Player two’s offensive line ranked ninth. Still very good, but consider how much better it could’ve been. Their starting tackles played right around 75% of the team’s snaps, both missing about a fourth of the season. Their starting center missed the entire season and they had a revolving door at one of their guard spots. What’s the third reason? Player one averaged 2.7 yards before contact per carry and player two averaged 1.2 yards before contact per carry, a difference of 1.5 yards. We should expect player two to receive more yards before contact with a more healthy offensive line in 2023.

Outside of the rushing yards, however, these players are extremely similar. Player two actually averaged more targets and receptions per game, a valuable characteristic in full-PPR scoring. Neither player received too many carries inside the five- and 10-yard line, but there’s reason to believe that could actually increase for player two. As for player one, fantasy managers shouldn’t be expecting a change in his red zone utilization in 2023.

Now, ask yourself two questions – which player would you rather have if the price was not a factor and which player do you want at cost?

Blind Resume No. 2 Reveal

Player one is Aaron Jones. Player two is Rachaad White. Both teams will undergo significant changes at their quarterback position, waving goodbye to two future Hall of Famers, but fantasy managers are generally more pessimistic about the Tampa Bay offense.

For White’s sample, I used only the games where he received double-digit touches. That may seem like a cop-out to some, but based on their current depth chart, there are absolutely zero reasons to believe White won’t be getting double-digits in every game in 2023. Could they add a running back? Maybe, but this team doesn’t have any money. They also cut their left tackle and employ an aging defense that needs some fresh faces. I don’t suspect a big time-addition to this position in the draft.

Assuming White maintains, at the very least a 1A role in Tampa Bay, his scoring opportunities should increase even if the offense gets worse. That’s because the team so often used Leonard Fournette when they got close to the end zone. This is very similar to how the Packers used AJ Dillon and unfortunately, he’s still in Green Bay, so fantasy managers shouldn’t expect Jones to get back to scoring 8+ touchdowns on the ground. Not with Dillon there.

Fantasy managers generally have more optimism in Jordan Love than they do in Baker Mayfield, which is totally fair, but it’s also fair to expect both offenses to struggle a bit in 2023 and lack consistency. Still, when we look at their expected full-PPR PPG averages from last season, there’s a difference of just one point, but yet there are about three full rounds in ADP separating them.

I have no doubt that Jones is the better player, but as long as the Buccaneers’ don’t add a significant talent at running back in the draft, White has a very similar role as Jones. Both teams have offensive question marks, but White likely has a higher touch ceiling, and comes at a significantly reduced price.

Blind Resume No. 3

These two players also look extremely identical. They both averaged just over 18 touches per game and averaged 90 and 86 yards per game, respectively. Player one has a slight advantage in scoring opportunities, in regards to their average number of carries inside the five- and 10-yard line per game, but player two averaged more targets and receptions per game. In the end, player two averaged a higher full-PPR PPG, but their expected full-PPR PPG was basically the same.

Player one’s offense was in the top-10 in overall scoring while player two’s offense was bottom-12 in overall scoring. Player one also has a much better offensive line. PFF ranked player one’s offensive line as the 13th-best unit last year compared to 24th for player two’s offensive line. There are also concerns that player two’s quarterback may not be ready for the first week of the season and he could miss up to the first month of action. However, player one could be cut or traded before the start of the season, which would most likely hurt his value. It’s very difficult to imagine a better situation for him, fantasy-wise, than where he currently is.

Both players have some question marks about what their roles may be in 2023 and neither of them are exactly young pups when it comes to the running back position. Fantasy managers will all almost universally agree that player one is the more talented player, but is the gap in ADP worth the talent difference when the workload and volume are essentially the same? Time to make a decision.

Blind Resume No. 3 Reveal

Dalvin Cook is player one and James Conner is player two. I am of the mind that Cook is the better player than Conner and as long as he stays in Minnesota, has more upside because of the offensive structure. Because of this, I don’t mind Cook’s current ADP at all. However, as long as the Cardinals do not add significant talent to their running back room, Conner is a really good value at his current ADP, even if Kyler Murray isn’t ready to start the season.

The Cardinals have eight total picks and five inside the top-105, so it’s possible they add to the running back room, but this is a roster that is lacking in talent across almost the entire roster. They’re not in a position to compete in 2023, so they may bypass this position and seek to add more talent at positions with more longevity. It’s not out of the question that Conner is the primary ball carrier again in 2023 before they move on from him and seek to add the long-term answer in 2024. If that happens, Conner is a great value.

Blind Resume No. 4

I have absolutely no idea why anyone would want player one at his current price tag. His number of carries per game is nice, but he’s virtually non-existent in the passing game. When looking at his stat line, he’s basically a touchdown-or-bust fantasy running back. If he scores a touchdown, you’ll get 12-14 points. If he doesn’t you’ll get 6-8. I’m not saying players two and three are super great or anything, but as you can see from their expected full-PPR PPG averages, they’re all virtually the same and players two and three are significantly cheaper. How much cheaper? About 3-4 rounds. Easy choice, not to mention both players two and three actually had a higher full-PPR PPG average to boot.

While player one does come with a higher touchdown probability based on his numbers of carries inside the five- and 10-yard line, players two and three are on the significantly better offenses. Player one’s offense finished in the bottom 10 for points scored, while players two and three each played on offenses inside the top-12 in points scored.

Blind Resume No. 4 Reveal

Player one is Brian Robinson. I eliminated his first game from injury since he was still very much eased back in. Player two is Raheem Mostert and player three is Jeff Wilson Jr., using only his Miami Dolphins stats.

Fantasy managers should be much more willing to use picks on Mostert or Wilson before they use one on Robinson. With Robinson’s complete zero in the passing game, he’s a touchdown-or-bust player on what is likely a below-average offense in Washington. Mostert and Wilson are both used in the passing game more frequently. There’s also more upside for both players in the event one of them misses time with an injury. Robinson’s role is unlikely to change even if Antonio Gibson were to get hurt.

In full-PPR leagues, at his current price tag, Robinson should be completely off the draft board for players. In fact, I’d rather take a shot on Robinson’s partner before him. Below are the stats for Antonio Gibson’s 2022 season.

Here you can see that Gibson under 10 fewer yards per game than Robinson and while he received fewer carries inside the five and 10-yard line, he still received enough that he’ll get a few of those opportunities. The best indicator for Gibson and his future success is the number of targets and receptions per game he averaged last year. With JD McKissic no longer in Washington, Gibson could take on a bigger role in the passing game. As you can see from his full-PPR PPG average and his expected full-PPR PPG average from last year, Gibson bested Robinson in both departments. Just don’t draft Brian Robinson.

Blind Resume No. 5

Here we have two players who are separated by more than five rounds of ADP, but who are basically in the same role. Neither player offers very much in the passing game and they’re both virtually early-down plodders who need to score touchdowns to have a big fantasy week. That’s not the worst thing for either player because both players are on offenses that were in the top five in points scored last year.

Player two is on a new team this year, but fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting a different role than he's played in the past. He's going to be an early-down runner who will get a decent amount of red zone opportunities because his new offense lives in that area. The one positive for player two is he was coming from a team whose passing game was broken beyond repair. Opposing defenses could and did, play much closer to the line of scrimmage. Player two's new team has one of the best quarterbacks and passing games in the NFL, so player two is likely to see fewer men in the box, which theoretically, should increase his rushing yards per game.

Blind Resume No. 5 Reveal

Player one is Isiah Pacheco and player two is Damien Harris. For Pacheco’s sample, I only used games in which he had at least double-digit touches. Right now, his current ADP is based on him maintaining his early down role. In that sense, it makes sense to eliminate the games he played in but was just a backup. For Harris, I used only games where his snap share was over 35%. This resulted in 11 games for Pacheco and seven games for Harris while still in New England.

While Pacheco had significantly more scoring opportunities in regards to carries inside the five- and 10-yard line, we should expect Harris to receive ample more scoring opportunities while in Buffalo. The Patriots finished 17th in points scored, while the Bills were fourth. The Bills also finished with more rushing touchdowns. While Josh Allen is always going to yoink his fair share of touchdowns close to the goal line, the GM and head coach has talked about lessening Allen’s load. Harris is just the kind of guy to do that and someone the Bills haven’t had on the roster in recent years. Singletary is just 200 pounds, while Harris clocks in closer to 215.

I envision both backfields playing out almost identically to each other. Pacheco and Harris will play the Jamaal Williams role while Jerick McKinnon or whoever the Chiefs bring in and James Cook to play the D’Andre Swift role. This should leave Pacheco and Harris with about 12-15 touches per game, mostly carries, and a good chance at finding the end zone because of the strength of their respective offenses.

If I’m looking to take a swing on a player like Pacheco, I’d much rather draft Diontae Johnson, Treylon Burks, Brandin Cooks, Deshaun Watson, Evan Engram, or Darren Waller who are all available around Pacheco’s ADP and then draft Damien Harris much later in the draft. Essentially, I get an extra sixth-rounder by drafting virtually the same player as Pacheco, but in the 11th round.

Blind Resume No. 6

These two players are almost the exact same player across the board, right up until you get to their passing involvement. Player one essentially averaged one more catch and 10 more receiving yards per game, which equals two extra points, which is basically the difference between their expected full-PPR PPG averages of 14.1 and 10.6, respectively. Now, I get what you’re probably asking, “Why the comparison then?” Totally, valid question.

This will be easier if you know who is who. Player one is Travis Etienne. Player two is Tyler Allgeier. Both players’ samples come with caveats. For Etienne, I used only games where Etienne had double-digit touches. There were only two games where this wasn’t the case, both when James Robinson was in Jacksonville. It makes sense to eliminate those since I can’t imagine Etienne not touching the ball 10 times in any games in 2023 unless he gets injured. For Allgeier, I used only the games where he played 40% of the snaps, which was Weeks 4-18. As long as they don’t draft Bijan Robinson, the Falcons are likely going to have a backfield of Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson again with Allgeier operating as the No. 1 option.

Now, let’s get back to their passing involvement. Let’s start with Allgeier. From Weeks 4-7, he had one target. From Weeks 8-18, he had 15 targets. That’s 1.5 targets per game, slightly better than the 1.1 he had, but we saw his passing game involvement grow as the season went along. Not that it was good but better. Another thing to note, the Falcons passed the ball just 415 times last season, which was significantly less than the Jaguars at 596.

Under the assumption that the Falcons regress toward the mean a bit, we should expect Allgeier’s number of targets to increase. For reference, the Giants who finished 25th in pass attempts had 520. If Allgeier’s role grows at all or with a slight increase in passing volume, we should expect Allgeier’s numbers to tick up, at least a little bit.

As for Etienne, his target numbers were certainly a bit disappointing after a college career at Clemson where he was often used in the passing game. His targets per game average are a lot closer to the likes of Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb than to Aaron Jones or D’Andre Swift, which certainly is not ideal. The other component to remember is that Calvin Ridley returns in 2023. That’s a former-alpha receiver who has a history of earning 10+ targets per game and target shares of around 25%. It’s fair to argue that earning targets for the Jaguars in 2023 will be more difficult with receivers such as Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram.

Should Etienne’s targets per game drop ever so slightly with the presence of Ridley and Allgeier’s targets per game increase ever so slightly with the Falcons’ passing more, their targets may end closer than they currently look from 2022.

I’m interested in Etienne’s upside and talent at his current ADP, but I’m also very interested in Allgeier as long as the Atlanta backfield stays relatively the same. The upcoming draft will play a big role in that equation, but as long as they continue to ride with Allgeier and Patterson in 2023, Allgeier is certainly a name to remember on your fantasy football draft day.

Blind Resume No. 7

These two players are incredibly similar across the board. They averaged about the same number of touches per game and their scrimmage yards per game were essentially the same. Player two had a slight advantage in scoring opportunities, identified by the number of red zone carries, and carries inside the five and 10-yard line. However, player one had a slight advantage in the number of targets per game they received.

In the end, you can see that player two actually averaged more full-PPR PPG, but player one had a higher expected full-PPR PPG. Both players' offenses finished in the bottom-1o in points scored and yards gained. According to PFF, both of their offensive lines were ranked in the bottom 10 for the 2022 season.

Player one did work as his team's primary ball carrier, handling just shy of 80% of the team's running back carries. His percentage of his team's carries was top-three among all running backs. Player one also had a snap share in the top-12 of all running backs. This is important because player one's team signed another team's starting running back who finished 215 touches, 1,100 scrimmage yards, and 6 touchdowns. Needless to say, it's virtually guaranteed that player one's snap share and touches per game is likely to decrease in 2023.

Meanwhile, player two's team has not made any significant additions to the running back room, and as it looks right now, fantasy managers can pencil him in as the team's bell cow and I do mean, bell cow.

Blind Resume No. 7 Reveal

Player one is Dameon Pierce, eliminating Week 1 since the team used Rex Burkhead as their primary running back. Player two is Cam Akers in the nine games he appeared in where he played more than 40% of the team's snaps. Given how well Akers played at the end of last season and considering the limited resources the Rams have, both financially and in terms of draft capital, it seems unlikely that they'll be making a big addition to their running back room. As long as that holds true, fantasy managers should be expecting Akers to be the primary running back for the Rams in 2023.

When you look at their per-game averages, there is only one area where Pierce held the edge – targets per game – and there's reason to believe Pierce's pass-game involvement is likely to decrease in 2023. The Texans signed Devin Singletary, whom the Bills trusted a lot in passing situations to help keep Josh Allen up-right and it's that blocking ability that could ensure Singletary stays on the field in passing situations. According to PFF, Singletary had a 73.2 pass-blocking grade in 2022. That's compared to 32.3 for Pierce and 73.9 for Akers.

Should Singletary take over as the primary pass-catching running back for the Texans, which seems likely, the targets per game difference that we saw between Akers and Pierce in 2022 could actually flip-flop. Remember, Stafford missed a good portion of the end of the season and with him healthy, Akers could see more targets.

Overall, however, the Rams' offense will be much better in 2023 compared to the end of the season when Akers had seven out of the nine games used in his sample. The return of Stafford and Kupp will only increase the scoring opportunities for every Rams player.

There are concerns for each player. Specifically, we don't know just how involved either player will be in the passing game. There are also concerns about the overall strength of their team offenses and there are concerns both players could find themselves in an ugly timeshare. However, in all three areas of concern, Akers seems to have a slight advantage. Despite this, it's Pierce with the higher ADP. I'm not in love with either player at their current ADP, but if you're going to take one, you might as well take the cheaper one.

Blind Resume No. 8

Looking at the table above, it's clear that player one is the better fantasy option. He received more carries inside the red zone, as well as more carries inside the five and 10-yard line. On top of that, player one had more targets and receptions per game. In a vacuum, without consideration of price, he's the correct answer 100/100. However, the numbers are close enough that we can ask ourselves if player one's slightly better role is worth over six rounds of ADP. Player one is a fifth-rounder, while player two can be at the back of round 11 or early in round 12.

Player one's team had the eighth-best offensive line according to PFF and player two's offensive line was in the bottom 10. However, player two's team signed two new offensive linemen and both received contracts that ranked second and fifth in terms of average annual pay. Based on this, fantasy managers should expect a much better-performing offensive line in 2023.

Player one's team made a rather significant addition to their running back group this offseason, signing the second-most expensive player at the position. Meanwhile, player two's starting running back could very well start the season on the PUP list, putting player two into a starting role where he could have RB2 value for the first few weeks of the 2023 season.

Blind Resume No. 8 Reveal

I will fully admit this one might be a tough sell, but I think it does well to illustrate the value of player two. Player one is D'Andre Swift. I eliminated Week 9 because he played fewer than 14% of the snaps. In the other 13 games, he played more than 30% of the snaps. He played fewer than 35% in two out of the 13-game sample, but he scored double-digits in both contests. Player two is Samaje Perine, but I only used the games in which he played at least 30% of the snaps. That resulted in a 10-game sample. Yes, Perine is now in Denver, but that's part of the appeal for his fantasy prospects and why I specifically looked at the games where he had a snap share north of 30%.

With Javonte Williams' injury and the history of a two running back system between head coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, there are so many reasons to believe Perine will have a bigger role than his current ADP indicates.

Lombardi was the OC for the Lions in 2014 and 2015. Joique Bell – remember him? – he finished as the RB13 in 2014. In 2015, Theo Riddick finished as the RB17. Then Lombardi went to the Saints where he teamed up with Payton. Mark Ingram was the RB8 in 2016. Ingram was the RB29 (only 12 games played) and Alvin Kamara was the RB3 in 2017. The following season Ingram was RB10 and Kamara was RB14 in 14 games. These two have a strong history of using multiple backs and incorporating them into their passing game.

If Williams is healthy to start the season, Perine could see a much larger workload, a workload that could vault him into the RB2 range. The Bengals used Perine as their primary pass-catching back at the end of last season and he finished as one of the better pass-blocking running backs in the league.

The addition of David Montgomery, who has been a better pass-catcher than Jamaal Williams, creates some concern that Swift may not have that role, which allowed him to stay fantasy viable last season, guaranteed.

The Lions have never fully committed to Swift. That was evident in his rookie season when they insisted on playing Adrian Peterson. It was true in his second season and it was painfully obvious last year when they clearly preferred Williams. The signing of Montgomery creates only more questions as to how the Lions truly feel about their former second-round pick.

Perine and Swift could find themselves in very similar roles in 2023. Javonte Williams, when healthy, and David Montgomery are likely to work as the early-down backs for their respective clubs and the primary goal-line back, which will leave Perine and Swift as the primary pass-catchers. Perine is not nearly as talented as Swift, but it's very possible he provides similar value at a significant discount.

I don't hate the idea of Swift at his current price because I believe him to be a very talented player, but there's no denying there is some risk involved. This comparison is more so to identify the incredible value that Perine is right now.

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