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Jackson Sparks discusses RB Josh Jacobs as one of the top dynasty fantasy football risers for 2023 after a stellar 2022 fantasy season.
Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs felt like one of the biggest fantasy football losers when Josh McDaniels accepted the head coach position for the Silver and Black in 2022. McDaniels as New England's former offensive coordinator was notorious for implementing a running-back-by-committee approach, so many fantasy managers were worried Jacobs wouldn't see real volume in 2022.
Jacobs finished no worse than the RB18 spot in half-PPR leagues in the three years prior to 2022, but the fear based on coach-centric analysis ran wild among fantasy football and dynasty circles. A low-end RB2 or worse season looked to be in the works, especially since Jacobs was active for the Raiders' preseason Hall of Fame game in early August. We now know that's far from how his season turned out.
In this edition of dynasty risers and fallers, we'll dive into Jacobs' 2022 season, his current dynasty and trade value, and his 2023 fantasy outlook. Let's get to it!
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2022 Season Review
In the early part of the season, Jacobs looked to be headed toward the season everyone feared he'd have. Through the first two weeks, Jacobs rushed 27 times for 126 yards and zero touchdowns while catching just two passes on two targets for 28 yards. He saw solid volume on the ground, but without any pass-catching upside, it was a slow start -- posting RB38 and RB28 finishes in half-PPR formats.
In Week 3, he showed promise with 66 rushing yards on 13 carries and five catches on five targets for 31 yards. He'd still finish outside RB1 territory, but his usage through the air foreshadowed what was to come.
In Weeks 4 through 7 (Week 6 bye), Jacobs averaged 31.6 fantasy points per game. Over that three-game stretch, the 25-year-old rushed 69 times for 441 yards (6.4 YPC) and six touchdowns, adding 13 receptions on 15 targets for another 82 yards. Needless to say, he was the RB1 in fantasy points per game during that three-game sample and second in total fantasy points per game -- despite playing fewer games than the rest of the top 10. He saw no fewer than 20 carries and rushed for no fewer than 143 yards in that timeframe.
His usage was elite and he posted two RB1 finishes and an RB3 finish. At this point, many people considered Jacobs to be a sell-high candidate. Hopefully, his fantasy managers held onto him.
After a down performance in Week 8 against New Orleans (Raiders were shut out), Jacobs would get the ball rolling once again -- posting RB18, RB8, and RB7 finishes in Weeks 9 through 11.
Then -- Week 12 happened.
Against Seattle, Jacobs rushed 33 times for 229 yards and two touchdowns and caught six passes for 74 yards. That's right -- over THREE HUNDRED yards from scrimmage to go along with two rushing scores. Jacobs won the game in overtime with an 86-yard scamper and posted the 18th-most half-PPR fantasy points in a single game among RBs all-time.
It was a legendary and week-winning performance that no one knew he was capable of -- especially early in the 2022 offseason.
Jacobs finished the year with three more RB1 finishes but scored outside the top 20 RBs on three other occasions. It's worth noting he battled through injuries in the last quarter of the year, which makes sense given his workload.
Ultimately, Jacobs totaled 340 carries for a league-high 1,653 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. He also added 53 receptions for 400 receiving yards. He was the only player in 2022 to eclipse 2,000 yards from scrimmage -- beating out second-place Derrick Henry by 117 yards.
Josh Jacobs Dynasty Value/Market
While player valuations are going to vary widely from league to league, KeepTradeCut.com is a helpful resource for getting an idea of what a player's value might be. These crowdsourced rankings have Jacobs as the dynasty RB8 and the 35th most valuable player overall (single-QB leagues).
Over the last calendar year, Jacobs has risen from the RB20 into firm dynasty RB1 territory. If Jacobs had produced a season like 2022 at age 22 or 23, he'd be a locked-in top-three dynasty running back. However, the market won't push him up too far since he's 25 and is coming off a massive-volume season.
Josh Jacobs Dynasty Value
In single-QB formats, Jacobs is ranked near the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Najee Harris, Mark Andrews, and Trevor Lawrence. He was likely attainable for a late-first or early-second-round pick a year ago. Now, it'll likely take at least a top-six 2023 rookie pick. That said, contenders will likely hold Jacobs -- as the team franchise tagged him this offseason and has no reason not to give him a bell-cow role once again in 2023.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
In early FFPC fantasy drafts, Jacobs' average draft position sits at the RB9 slot. Kenneth Walker III, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, and Nick Chubb are all being selected before him. This is likely an indication that competitive fantasy gamers are concerned the Las Vegas offense will take a step back under the direction of the newly acquired Jimmy Garoppolo, which could be warranted.
That said, the team still has Davante Adams and added Jakobi Meyers this offseason, so the offense should still sustain drives and score points. If Jacobs is still the workhorse back and the offense can remain at least a top-15 unit in the league, the RB9 slot should be his floor.
Obviously, the upcoming NFL Draft could see the Raiders add a running back, but it's hard to believe they'd invest real capital into the position after tagging Jacobs. Ultimately, the team knows they have him for one more season and can move on next offseason.
It won't be surprising at this point if he's given another 300-plus touches. The Raiders' defense will still likely be a bottom-dwelling stop unit, so expect Las Vegas to be in more shootouts in 2023. This sets up well for Jacobs' usage all around, but especially in the passing game.
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