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32-year-old quarterback Geno Smith was fully in the "quarterback bust" category after flaming out for the New York Jets after being selected 39th overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. Smith totaled 25 passing touchdowns and 34 interceptions during his two full seasons as the Jets' starter, posting an 11-18 record. He was brutally punched by a teammate before the start of the 2015 season and suffered a broken jaw, setting veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick up to take his starting nod. Fitzpatrick set a franchise record for passing touchdowns in a season (31), effectively ending Smith's career as New York's franchise quarterback of the future.
After six seasons as the Jets, Giants, Chargers, and Seahawks backup, he finally got a chance to be a team's Week 1 starter – for the first time in nearly a decade. He earned Pro Bowl honors as Seattle's trigger-man, earning a lucrative contract and rising up the dynasty quarterback rankings.
How did Smith play in 2022, what is his current market in dynasty circles, and how does he project for 2023? Let's dive into it all below!
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2022 Season In Review
After Drew Lock was shipped to Seattle in the blockbuster Russell Wilson trade from Denver, many NFL fans and fantasy analysts believed he'd be the starter for Seattle in 2023. However, it seemingly wasn't a close race, as Smith was named the Week 1 starter – in a game against Wilson.
Smith completed 23 of his 28 passing attempts for 195 yards and two touchdowns to zero interceptions on Monday Night Football – finishing as the QB15 right out of the gate. In Week 2, he posted what would be his worst game of the season as he threw for 195 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception against the San Francisco 49ers' elite defense. After that, it was wheels up for the former West Virginia Mountaineer.
Over the next three games, Smith completed 71.7% of his passes for 913 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. He added 61 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown finishing as the QB7, QB2, and QB4 over that span. This stretch of games led to real belief around Geno and expelled the notion that Week 1 was a mere fluke.
Overall, Smith posted 10 QB1 weeks on his way to passing for 4,282 yards (Seahawks franchise record), 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He led the NFL in completion percentage (69.9%) and won a pivotal Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth for Seattle.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each saw at least 117 targets and each posted at least 1,033 yards and six touchdowns. Both went on to be top 16 PPR receivers for 2022 and didn't miss Wilson throwing them the rock.
Smith finished as the QB5 in total fantasy points, trailing only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. Not bad for a player who was ranked anywhere between QB25 to QB40 for 2023.
Per Playerprofiler.com, Smith finished as a top 10 quarterback in pass attempts, deep ball attempts, red zone attempts, passing yards, air yards, money throws, passing touchdowns, yards per attempt, true completion percentage, deep ball completion percentage, pressured completion percentage, play-action completion percentage, and clean pocket completion percentage.
It's worth noting he threw 41 interceptable passes, but unless you play in a league that has extra point deductions for interceptions, it's worth the boom-or-bust risks he takes to score fantasy points.
Geno Smith Dynasty Value/Market
While all dynasty leagues vary and Smith's market value could be different from league to league, Keeptradecut.com is a good source for getting an idea of what a player's value might be. These crowdsourced rankings have Smith as the QB26 in two-QB/Superflex dynasty formats. While he just signed a three-year deal to stay with Seattle, fantasy managers aren't going to push him up too high in the rankings since he's in his 30s and could have had an outlier season that he can't replicate.
However, it's a tremendous leap for Smith since he was viewed as the dynasty QB61 just one calendar year ago today (April 5, 2023). He was unrostertable in even deep Superflex leagues, but now he's a must-roster and must-start player in those formats with real upside. Even in single-QB dynasty leagues, he's at the very least a high-ceiling backup but could be a viable starter once again in 2023.
It's rare to see such a late-career renascence, but Smith did it, and you'd likely be hard-pressed to find a dynasty manager who is willing to deal him for anything less than a 2023 early second-round pick or a late first-round pick. If Smith's season was legitimate and he produces similarly next year, why can't he be a productive fantasy QB for the next five years?
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
With Metcalf, Lockett, Noah Fant, and Ken Walker still in town, Smith should have a nice QB2 floor with QB1 upside once again. The NFC West isn't as strong as it once was, as the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals are in rebuild mode. That said, Smith at least has some mediocre opponents built into his 2023 schedule. He'll also face some of the weaker secondaries from 2022 out of the division, including the Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, and Baltimore Ravens.
Marquise Goodwin is now in Cleveland and Dee Eskridge has failed to make an impact, so there's a chance Seattle will look to add a high-upside third wideout to play alongside the Pro Bowl duo already in Seattle. Smith will have a full offseason as the team's starter taking all the first-team reps, which can only help.
Regardless, Smith's early Best Ball ADP of QB19 feels like a mistake and he's being drafted at his floor. In Superflex or two-QB leagues, he's one of the best QB2 options for building a contending roster in 2023. Pick him with confidence, as he's one of the few players in that range with real QB1 upside.
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