RADIO
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has emerged as a fantasy football stud after just two seasons in the NFL, but his rise to excellence didn't come without plenty of doubters. The 5'11", 200-pound wideout from USC wasn't a standout athlete at the 2021 NFL combine. Despite a solid career of production for the Trojans, he was just a fourth-round selection by the Lions a couple of years ago. His rookie season was fantastic, as he posted 912 yards and five touchdowns on 90 receptions.
Even then, fantasy gamers questioned whether or not he was legit, as most of his production came with a few notable Detroit pass-catchers out of action. Now, after a super sophomore season, St. Brown is viewed as one of the top dynasty wide receivers in all of fantasy football.
How did St. Brown play in 2022, what is his current market in dynasty circles, and how does he project for 2023? Let's dive into it all below!
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2022 Season In Review
All it took was two weeks of the 2022 NFL season for the majority of the dynasty community to truly buy into St. Brown as a high-end fantasy football asset. Against the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders in Weeks 1 and 2, St. Brown totaled 17 receptions on 24 targets for 180 yards and three touchdowns. He added 64 yards on two rushing attempts. He finished as the WR11 and WR4 in those two weeks, respectively, placing him as the WR4 overall.
However, after posting 73 yards on six receptions in Week 3, St. Brown suffered an ankle injury that would cause him to miss Week 4 and play injured in Week 5 (four receptions, 18 yards). Then, he suffered a concussion in the first quarter of Week 7's contest against the Cowboys.
Needless to say, there were some speed bumps in the early part of the season. Once he cleared concussion protocol ahead of Week 8, he never missed time again and was a staple in fantasy and DFS lineups.
From Week 8 to Week 18, St. Brown drew at least eight targets in 10 of 11 games. He posted three 100-plus yard games and six games of at least 75 yards receiving. What he lacks in big-play ability, he makes up for with volume and consistency -- which is especially valuable in PPR leagues. Even after T.J. Hockenson was traded to Minnesota and wasn't there to eat up coverage, St. Brown continued to flourish.
For those interested in advanced stats and metrics, St. Brown (among wideouts) finished third in target rate (32.3%), ninth in yards per route run (2.57), 14th in yards per team pass attempt (2.12), and 15th in true catch rate (93%). He's not quite an efficiency monster but is a dominant target hog.
Overall, St. Brown hauled in 106 receptions (seventh) on 146 targets (15th) for 1,161 receiving yards (11th) and six receiving touchdowns to go along with 95 rushing yards and nine rushing attempts. His PPR production placed him as the WR7 on the season, finishing behind only Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown. That's elite territory for a player who is just 23 years old.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Dynasty Value/Market
While all dynasty leagues vary and St. Brown's market value could be different from league to league, Keeptradecut.com is a rankings database where the pecking order is crowdsourced by the readers. That said, it's a helpful resource for getting an idea of what a player's value may be.
As of late March 2023, St. Brown is ranked as the 13th-most valuable player in all of the single-QB dynasty leagues -- the seventh-ranked receiver overall. He's ranked just behind Jaylen Waddle and Garrett Wilson, but ahead of a 2023 early first-round pick, Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, and DeVonta Smith. This time last year, he was ranked around the WR15-WR20 spot and most dynasty managers would've let him go for any first-round selection.
Now, he's a clear-cut stud with real trade value and could just be scratching the surface of what is to come in the future. Today's NFL defenses are featuring a ton of two-high and three-high looks on the backend, so volume slot wideouts like St. Brown have become significantly more valuable in fantasy football, especially in PPR formats.
St. Brown's value could be affected if Detroit decides to take a shot on a quarterback in the 2023 NFL draft. But for now, he's posted up as one of the most valuable players in dynasty circles.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Jared Goff is expected to continue being the Lions' starting quarterback in 2023. With T.J. Hockenson no longer in town, St. Brown should carry on his elite usage and volume for fantasy football. While Jameson Williams will be healthy and challenge St. Brown for targets, their skill sets vary and they shouldn't take away from each other's production.
Williams is a field-stretcher who will provide the offense with an explosive dynamic, but he likely won't be a volume target hog. In actuality, there's a good chance Williams opens the middle of the field even more for St. Brown when he's at full strength.
On the other hand, defenses will have to continue to respect St. Brown underneath, meaning Williams will be opened up for big-play opportunities. If Detroit adds more underneath and intermediate receiver threats, St. Brown could be affected, but Williams' presence in the lineup shouldn't cause much concern.
Ultimately, the Lions will be a well-oiled machine on offense once again, and St. Brown will have a chance to exceed his six touchdown receptions from 2022 and post another WR1 season.
At his WR10 price tag in early best ball draft ADP, he feels like a can't-miss fantasy asset in that spot. Expect another 100-catch, 1000-yard season in 2023.
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