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Nothing feels better than hitting on a draft pick in fantasy football dynasty leagues and watching your player’s value increase. However, values are always fluctuating as situations rapidly change across the league.
Finding the right time to sell a player is always a challenge, especially while trying to balance your team between competing and rebuilding.
These six players did enough last season to improve their stock heading into 2024, but selling at their current value may be a wise idea.
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Anthony Richardson, QB - Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson did not necessarily break out in 2023 since he only played in four games. Still, in those four games, he showcased the cannon of an arm and elite rushing ability that made him such an intriguing prospect.
He has been widely considered a breakout candidate for 2024 and in dynasty given that he is just 22 years old. He is valued as a high-end QB1. As a matter of fact, consensus only has Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow ranked higher at the quarterback position.
Richardson’s high price makes sense given the colossal fantasy upside that he provides, but what if he can’t become a more consistent thrower? What if his running style doesn’t allow him to stay healthy? He is already dealing with shoulder soreness this offseason in the shoulder that he had surgically repaired -- those things can linger.
🚨Anthony Richardson, Breakout QB?🚨
If you think so, you’re a moron.
2023:
12 quarters total
50/84 passing
144.3 Y/G
22.6% pressure to sack rateRichardson capped a worthless season by aggravating a pre-existing injury to his throwing shoulder. He also inexplicably added 15… pic.twitter.com/BkfiUvN21d
— Tommy R. Callahan III (@yalltitanup) June 24, 2024
I get that if you have Richardson on your roster, you are probably excited about his upside. The truth is, this is still a risky prospect and you can flip him for some pieces that are guaranteed to give you production. Go move Richardson for a haul and set your team up for success.
De'Von Achane, RB - Miami Dolphins
Like Richardson, De’Von Achane showcased elite athleticism in 2023. He finished as the RB24 overall despite suiting up for just 11 games and touching the ball 130 times. It’s no secret that Achane is explosive.
Also like Richardson, Achane struggled with injuries as a rookie. Standing 5-foot-9, 188 pounds, Achane’s size is not going to help him withstand injuries at the NFL level. He will be electric when on the field, but in order to keep him fresh, it is likely that his touches are limited as he splits with Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright.
Inconsistent scores and injuries are absolutely in the range of outcomes, and being priced as the dynasty RB6 is just too high. Swap Achane out for a back with more consistent production and less injury risk.
James Cook, RB - Buffalo Bills
In his first year in a workhorse role in Buffalo, James Cook finished as the RB12 overall. The 24-year-old had 237 carries for 1,122 yards and two touchdowns while producing 44 catches for 445 yards and four touchdowns through the air.
.@DynastyPrice thinks it may be time to SELL James Cook in Dynasty❗️ pic.twitter.com/rWJ1hEFWpP
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) April 17, 2024
Buffalo does not want Cook touching the ball as much as he did in 2023. Last year’s Damien Harris experiment did not work out, but this year they brought in rookie fourth-rounder Ray Davis to take some of the volume off Cook.
The only reason he finished as an RB1 last year was due to his workhorse role, as his efficiency was not great. Despite the fact that he will likely lose volume in 2023, Cook is still priced as an RB1 in dynasty ahead of running backs like Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White, and Josh Jacobs. Swapping him for a rookie like Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, or Keon Coleman is a shot worth taking.
Nico Collins, WR - Houston Texans
Nico Collins was extended this offseason, cementing his place in Houston long-term with franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud. Surely that’s a boost to his dynasty value, right?
While discussing Nico Collins' contract extension and his emergence as a No. 1 wide receiver, CJ Stroud paused to say, "I think we have five No. 1 receivers. I’ve had that before in college, and now I have it again. It's going to be fun, man.”
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) June 4, 2024
Sell on it. When Collins and Tank Dell were both on the field last season, it was Dell who had more targets and touchdowns. Add Stefon Diggs into the mix, and this receiver room is going to be full of inconsistent play. I project Dell to lead the way, yet he is ranked as WR19 compared to Collins at WR17. Coming off a WR1 finish, Collins can be sold as a back-end WR1 in some leagues and the opportunity should absolutely be taken upon.
DJ Moore, WR - Chicago Bears
Coming off his best season as a pro, DJ Moore caught a career-high 96 passes for a career-high 1,364 yards and, you guessed it, a career-high eight touchdowns. Those numbers will all remain career highs. Moore got a perceived upgrade at quarterback with first overall pick Caleb Williams stepping in for Justin Fields, but who’s to say the rookie ends up being a generational quarterback? Rookies generally struggle, and it is more than feasible that Williams in his rookie year plays worse than Fields as a third-year pro.
Moore was also the only talented playmaker worth throwing the ball to last year in Chicago. This season, they added Keenan Allen, who finished as a WR1 himself last season despite missing the last four games, and picked Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the draft. This might be the best receiving room in the entire league. While Moore could lead the way, there is an equal chance that he is the third-most-targeted player in this offense.
Despite the murky situation volume-wise, Moore is still priced as the WR21 overall in dynasty. Prior to last year’s WR6 finish, he only finished as the WR21 or better in two of his previous five seasons. If you are contending, sell him for a player with a cleaner path to volume.
Jayden Reed, WR - Green Bay Packers
Jayden Reed impressed everyone as a rookie in Green Bay, as he caught 64 passes for 793 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 119 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Reed finished as a low-end WR2 in his rookie season, offering great return given that he was typically a third-round rookie pick in dynasty leagues.
Christian Watson saw among the highest share of his targets at least 20+ yards downfield last year.
Less than half of those were catchable. But 67% of Jayden Reed's and 75% of Romeo Doubs' deep targets were.
With Doubs' luck, Watson would have finished just 0.5 FPG behind Reed. pic.twitter.com/rqouEpgiLp
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 22, 2024
While Reed’s rookie season was impressive, it is worth noting that a lot of his production came with Christian Watson off the field. Watson’s hamstring is supposedly fully healthy, creating murkiness in Green Bay’s receiving room.
Between Reed, Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, and Bo Melton, there are not enough targets to feed everyone. Could Reed emerge as a go-to guy for Jordan Love? Absolutely, but his current WR30 price is at a point where I’d rather swap him for more guaranteed production.
