RADIO
We've hit the dog days of the college basketball season where teams are fighting tooth and nail to add some additional wins to their resume in order to see some sort of postseason action. While the NFL continues to take up most of the media headlines with the Super Bowl right around the corner, don't let it distract you from the hundreds of college basketball games we get each week.
Bubble talk has started to heat up, and naturally, so have the Final Four and National Championship predictions.
Here Nick Rodriguez (@DrRoddy_) and I give our early Final Four and title game picks in lieu of the college basketball season (nearly) taking center stage in the sporting world.
Final Four Predictions
Ryan’s F4: UConn, Purdue, Tennessee, Kentucky
Championship: UConn 81, Purdue 76
Connecticut (+180 to make final four)
This team seemingly has no weaknesses. Five-star Stephon Castle is hampered early on? Fellow frosh Solomon Ball will step up and drop a career high at the Garden against UNC in a win. Donovan Clingan is out for a few games? Samson Johnson will step in and help fill his massive shoes and Dan Hurley will become a lineup wizard, creating mismatches all over the place. Alex Karaban is hurt? Cam Spencer becomes an unstoppable force from downtown.
There are so many pieces that are not only extremely talented, but gel incredibly well together and also have a killer mentality. That is a testament to the masterclass in coaching that Dan Hurley has put on in Storrs. The Huskies are once again a juggernaut and become the first repeat National Champion since the '07 Florida Gators.
Purdue (+170)
The Boilermakers were going to be my pick to win it if UConn just looked a little bit worse than they do, but I still have Matt Painter finally breaking through. The main reason why is the growth of sophomore point guard, Braden Smith. The Westfield, Indiana native is #4 in EvanMiya’s player ratings and second in the conference in assists with 7.3 per game.
Smith seemed to take being left off the Cousy Award watch list personally, dropping 11 points and 16 assists against Northwestern in OT the very next game. Zach Edey is just as dominant as he was last season, claiming the #1 spot in nearly every player of the year metric.
Official: Zach Edey has more double-doubles (55) than any player in Purdue history.
Enjoy some of his best highlights from today's big win at No. 6 Wisconsin. ⤵️@zach_edey x @BoilerBall pic.twitter.com/L5PvgQPkcA
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) February 4, 2024
The main difference between last year’s Purdue team and this year’s is a +271 spot bump in three point percentage. Purdue has the #1 offense and #5 three-point shooting team in the country, on top of a 15th ranked defense. This is the year that the Boilermakers avenge Carsen Edwards and his 42-point performance against eventual national champion Virginia in the 2019 Elite Eight.
Tennessee (+400)
I loved Tennessee going into the year and they have generally lived up to expectations thus far, sitting at #6 in the AP Poll. The Vols sport a 16-5 record that includes wins at Wisconsin and Kentucky, neutral vs. Illinois, and home against Florida and Alabama.
Dalton Knecht has absolutely shattered expectations, shooting his way into a legitimate first-team All-American candidate. Zakai Zeigler is healthy and has been a usual steady hand at point. His per-game numbers are almost identical to last year’s, but that is quite all right because Rick Barnes has more offensive talent in his arsenal, highlighted by the aforementioned Knecht, as well as an improved Jonas Aidoo and transfer guard Jordan Gainey. This team has depth, shooting, and another top-five defense (#3 in adjusted defensive efficiency). Barnes finally gets his second Final Four after a 20+ year drought.
Kentucky (+380)
While top prospects Justin Edwards and D.J. Wagner have not lived up to expectations (#3 and #4 in 2023 ESPN 100), this is an extremely deep team that is just getting all of their pieces available. Zvonimir Ivisic, a 7-foot-2 monster stretch-five, was just ruled eligible by the NCAA and scored 13 points in his first 16 minutes of college basketball action. Point guard Rob Dillingham is an absolute lighting rod off the bench and can take over a game whenever he wants.
The defense definitely worries me (#102 in AdjD), but this team does a lot of other things well and is more than capable of catching some March magic. This seems like a classic young Cal team that finds their groove in March and makes a run. It’s the year of redemption for me with Purdue, Tennessee, and UK in the Final Four after disappointing exits in 2023.
Nick’s F4: UConn, Houston, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s
Championship: UConn 66, Houston 59
Connecticut (+180 to make the Final Four)
The most complete team in college basketball yet again. Top 15 in both of KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency metrics and stands at 20-2 with Butler, Georgetown, and DePaul on deck before a tough stretch to end the season. This lineup is just so versatile and skilled, Dan Hurley has no problem switching between several different rotations.
Even without some injuries to the starting five, Cam Spencer has played like one of the best guards in the country while freshman Stephon Castle is starting to turn up the dial. Rightfully the national title favorite, but they are at peak value in the market right now. If you want UConn exposure, there’s still a chance they drop a game or two over the final month.
Houston (+210)
Kelvin Sampson’s team is once again in the top five despite being midway through their first Big 12 schedule. I love Houston because of the extra possessions they create. Top five in both defensive turnover percentage and offensive rebounding rate. Although they’re shooting a decent clip from three, these two metrics help scoring on any given night in a new gym against a new defensive scheme. Exactly how the NCAA Tournament is set up. Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer’s shooting splits are a big reason why I like the Cougars to handle business in March.
New Mexico (+1600)
We saw a Mountain West team make the Final Four only a year ago when San Diego State lost to UConn in the national title game. For my money, New Mexico is the most talented team in the MW led by strong guard play between Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr., and Donovan Dent.
After suffering multiple injuries to start the season, Richard Pitino’s group was on a nice five-game win streak before getting upset by a really solid Boise State team last week. Again, they’re excellent defensively and get to the rim at a high rate. They’ll need to shoot a little better to go on a run, but the Lobos have enough size to hang with most major programs in the paint.
Saint Mary’s (+2000)
Sensing a theme? I like teams that can defend while gaining extra possessions rebounding or off-turnovers, and the Gaels are no different. Currently on a 10-game win streak and victory at Gonzaga, they’ve played like many predicted in the preseason. Coach Randy Bennett always has good defensive numbers, and honestly might have made the Final Four if they had not run into Connecticut in the second round.
Big man Mitchell Saxon is playing at such a quality level while various role players continue to step up. Saint Mary’s rebounds very well with a top interior defense despite giving up the 16th-lowest three-point rate. I was a fan of this team in the preseason, and think they can be a Final Four team with the right draw.
