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Brenton Kemp looks at Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.'s 2022 fantasy baseball season in review and predicts how he will do in 2023 for fantasy baseball.
Bobby Witt Jr. managed to crack the Kansas City Royals' roster out of Spring Training in 2022 and went on to produce what ended up as a superb rookie season. Witt Jr. certainly managed to live up to the hype after being drafted with the second overall pick in the 2019 MLB Amateur Draft.
While Witt Jr. displayed some serious flaws with the glove, he earned the trust of fantasy owners with the bat after being drafted with a 92 ADP prior to the 2022 campaign. Some were hesitant to bet on Witt Jr. early in drafts given the wealth of high-end options at the shortstop position, but finishing well within the top 50 could have managers salivating at the chance to draft the Texas native far higher this time around, perhaps even in the top 10.
Let's review his final stats from 2022 and evaluate his season from a fantasy perspective.
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A Superb Rookie Season
Let's start by checking his batting line across the major roto categories.
2022: .254/.294/..428, 82 R, 80 RBI, 20 HR, 30 SB
The highly-touted Witt Jr. came out of the gate awfully slow in his rookie campaign, putting a golf ball into the collective throats of managers who trusted him with a top 100 selection. Witt Jr.'s month of April featured a frightening zero home runs across the first 77 plate appearances of his big-league career. However, from there on out, Witt Jr. was a fairly consistent contributor in the power/speed department on a month-to-month basis, never again falling into a true funk as we witnessed at the outset of the season.
In fact, Witt Jr. managed to produce more home runs and stolen bases in the first half of the season than he did after the All-Star break.
In addition to the home runs, Witt Jr. added 31 doubles and six triples to his ledger, using the vast outfield gaps at Kauffman Field in Kansas City to his advantage. Of course, his elite speed was a factor in legging out extra-base hits, but he did rank above league average in both average exit velocity as well as barrel rate. It's also worth noting that all 20 of his home runs were hit to the pull field to the left of the center field wall.
The above graphic also tells us Witt Jr. ranked in the 100th percentile in sprint speed. At just 23-years-old in mid-June, Witt Jr. is a good bet to challenge for the stolen-base crown for many years to come while remaining a perennial 20/20 contributor, perhaps even entering the 30/30 club if the spacious confines of Kauffman Field will allow it. A barrel rate improvement will certainly be required but the now-sophomore has already shown an ability to tap into his power at the highest level.
Witt Jr. also handled same-handed pitching quite well. In fact, the righty-swinging youngster posted reverse splits at the plate, posting a 101 wRC+ versus righties compared to a 94 mark against southpaws. The power -- both ISO and SLG -- were superior versus lefties but it's encouraging that Witt Jr. was an above-average hitter versus righties, if only slightly.
In 2022, Witt Jr. was one of nine members of the 20/20 club. The company he kept in doing so was pretty impressive:
- Kyle Tucker: 30/25
- Jose Ramirez: 29/20
- Julio Rodriguez: 28/25
- Adolis Garcia: 27/25
- Marcus Semien: 26/25
- J.T. Realmuto: 22/21
- Trea Turner: 21/27
- Randy Arozarena: 20/32
He was just one of two rookies to earn the honor as Seattle's Julio Rodriguez also displayed his dynamic power/speed abilities with authority. Most impressively, they are just two of five rookies in Major League Baseball history to reach the feat.
All told, Witt Jr. finished fourth in American League Rookie of the Year voting, finishing behind only Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, and Steven Kwan.
What To Expect From Witt Jr. in 2023 Fantasy Baseball
Clearly, we have a potential superstar on our hands. Anyone who can reach the home run and stolen base totals that he did in 2022 is already on the fast track to stardom and the fantasy community is taking notice. Witt Jr. is currently being drafted around the eighth overall pick in NFBC leagues while ranking extremely high in RotoBaller's shortstop rankings for the 2023 season.
While it was mostly all praise for the prized young Royal last season, there is a glaring area for improvement moving forward: walks. Witt Jr. walked in just 4.7% of his plate appearances as a rookie, a figure that ranked 124th among the 130 qualified hitters in Major League Baseball last season. Even with a solid 21.4% K%, Witt Jr,'s 0.22 K:BB ranked 123rd of those 130 qualified bats.
Finally, Witt Jr. swung at 37.3% of pitches outside the strike zone, a figure that ranked 111th among qualified hitters. His plate discipline could certainly use some work moving forward, not unlike a lot of young hitters.
Even with the low walk rate and subsequent on-base issues, Witt Jr. is a fantasy stud in the making. His extra-base power -- home runs aside -- not only generates runs scored but produces runs as well. His speed won't only allow him to steal plenty of bases but put him in better positions to score runs. In other words, the power/speed combination reaps rewards outside of the home run and stolen base roto categories.
All that being said, an ADP of eight carries plenty of risks. Should the on-base issues continue, it limits his stolen base and runs upside. The home runs are already in jeopardy of being suppressed by his home ballpark. That's three of five roto categories that sport question marks while he hit just .254 in his rookie season.
He's overvalued at an ADP of eight but Witt Jr.'s power/speed combination at just 22 years of age projects extremely well in the long term and a top 20 finish certainly isn't out of the cards in 2023.
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