2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Guards (Part 3)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage.

Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good and for the bad. For whatever reason -- be it talent, a lack/surplus of opportunity, or some combination of those and multiple other things -- these are players who I'm actively tracking in drafts to see how their ADP evolves as we get closer to the regular season.

Let's look at some guards who have sleeper/bust potential this year in fantasy basketball leagues.

2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Guards

Overvalued: Josh Giddey, SG/SF (OKC) - ADP: 55.2

Giddey was a phenomenal rookie last season, and definitely one most folks weren't expecting to perform to such great extents as those he reached. He missed on getting into the top-100 fantasy players of 2022, though, but that had more to do with his 54 GP over the year than his actual performance on the court when available.

Giddey posted a nice 33.4 FPPG mark to go with an above-average 1.06 FP/min. Just for context, Cole Anthony and Kevin Porter Jr. were the closest to Giddey's fantasy averages last year. Good, not great, one could say, although it also must be said that those two broke into the top-80 while Giddey fell 20+ positions short of that in the fantasy ranks.

KPJ's and Anthony's ADP figures right now sit at around 108th and 126th OVR, something much more reasonable than Giddey's ADP of 55. That's why those two project to become steals (or at least, positive ROI returners) while Giddey projects to become a tank commander with a negative ROI for those drafting him at his current ADP.

Giddey is a very unique player, don't get me wrong: only 15 (!!!) times has a player posted a 12-7-6 line in the history of the NBA. Seriously. Giddey and a certain Giannis Antetokounmpo were the only ones to do it before turning 21-years-old. That is great, and Giddey is definitely a phenomenal source of all types of stats--he also averaged 0.9 SPG and 0.4 BPG, just in case.

Is that all-around-contributor profile worth such a high pick, though? As much as Giddey produces, it is also true that his stats and "uniqueness" looks like cherry-picking a combined line. In fact, and only looking at data from last season, there were up to 98 players (min. 1700 MP) with 12+ PPG, 41 with 7+ RPG, and 20 with 6+ APG--all of those figures being the ones posted by Giddey.

The question is: would you rather have a player helping you in all of the statistical categories but with a cap applied to all of them... or a bonafide top-five performer at a single one or two? Given the price of admission to Giddey's camp, I'm inclined to side with a legitimate superstar at something priced at a top-dollar ADP than a do-it-all-on-the-low top-dollar option like Giddey.

Undervalued: Terry Rozier, PG/SG (CHA) - ADP: 59.2

I have to confess that I was afraid LaMelo Ball's arrival in Charlotte a few years ago was going to hurt Terry Rozier's numbers a lot. Turns out I was totally wrong. Rozier signed with Charlotte, is the clear-cut starting two-guard, has some point-guard chops to his game, and his current ADP is looking like a better and better bargain by the day.

Rozier only started 30 games while playing for the Celtics in a total of 272 matches. Then he moved south to Charlotte and he's started all 205 games he's played with the Hornets while averaging a ridiculous 34 MPG. His usage rate has gone from 14.0 percent to 24.4 and lastly 23.2 in 2022. His rate and efficiency numbers, mind you, haven't gone down with the larger volume he's handled.

Rozier has been able to keep up a 20 AST% in back-to-back years and he's also done that in the TRB% (nearly 7 percent), STL% (almost 2 percent), and BLK% (one percent) while actually lowering his turnover rate to a career-low 7.2%. When it comes to shooting, Rozier has also had three very similarly good years in the past three seasons, hitting 55.5, 57.7, and lastly 56.6 TS% figures with the Hornets.

While an ADP of 59 OVR isn't a cheap one by definition it is still looking like a very tasty value for fantasy GMs to snatch "late" in their leagues' drafts. Rozier has finished 48th, 22nd, and 32nd OVR in the past three fantasy seasons and is inside the top-15 players with most of their minutes at a guard (one or two) position.

Overvalued: Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG (PHI) - ADP: 65.6

I wrote about Maxey's rise from 2021 to 2022 just a few weeks ago, and I stand on that improvement. It is factual, and objective, and it can't be argued that Maxey truly experienced huge growth from his rookie season to his sophomore one. He went from a top-250 player to nearly a top-55 one. That, though, doesn't paint the whole picture not even start telling you everything that made that possible.

Basically, Maxey's sudden and unstoppable raise happened after his role got magnified, going from playing 61 games and 15+ MPG (eight starts) in 2021 to a monster 75 (74 GS) and 35+ MPG last year for the 76ers. Maxey made the most of his 2,640+ minutes on the court and that bulky playing time certainly helped his counting stats. On a per-minute basis, though, Maxey fell below the NBA-average line of 0.90 FP/min posting a 0.86 FP/min figure and actually playing less efficient basketball compared to that of his rookie season (0.93).

A full season playing next to James Harden will inevitably hurt Maxey's numbers in 2023 because of all of the touches the Beard will gather. Even then, though, Maxey should still be good for a top-100 (good!) but it's going to be very hard for him to close next season at his prior top-50 levels all things considered.

Drafting Maxey as early as with the 65th OVR pick might turn out to be the right move, but if you fall on the side of the risk-averse fantasy GMs, it'd be perfectly understandable to punt on Maxey and err on safer players available in his range.

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