2021 Standard Rankings Analysis: Wide Receiver

The NFL has become a pass-first league, and fantasy football general managers have adapted their strategies to coincide with this.

There used to be a time where wide receivers were third bananas in fantasy football behind running backs and quarterbacks. That feels like when parachute pants were cool to wear, though, because receivers have become almost as valuable now that passing numbers are at an all-time high thanks to offensive coordinators and head coaches relying on the pass more than the run in recent years.

It is never too early to rank players for the upcoming fantasy season. Here is my analysis of RotoBaller’s early 2021 standard rankings at wide receiver! *Rankings released before Michael Thomas injury announcement.

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RotoBaller's Early 2021 WR Standard Rankings

Tier 1

Hill is arguably the most explosive receiver in the NFL, has the best quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) throwing to him, and the best tight end in the NFL (Travis Kelce) keeping safeties and linebackers from helping the corners covering him. Hill will need inconsistent youngster Mecole Hardman to step it up on the other side of the field to cut down on the double teams he faces on his side. Hill is a no-doubt top-five fantasy receiver. Does he deserve the No. 1 ranking? I do not see him scoring 15 touchdowns again this year, so I disagree with RotoBaller on who should be the top WR.

A change of scenery turned Diggs into the most valuable WR in fantasy football in 2020 as he led all receivers with 127 receptions and 1,535 receiving yards. Josh Allen will still be his quarterback and the Bills receiving corps of Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Emmanuel Sanders will not threaten his target total, so Diggs is primed one of the best at the position yet again.

After leading all wideouts with 18 touchdowns receptions and averaging 10.6 targets and 98 receiving yards per game in 2020, Adams should be rated as high as he is. Maybe higher, like numero uno. But will his fantasy value remain as lofty if Aaron Rodgers cuts his losses (instead of Green Bay’s cheese) and forces a trade or holds out? If Rodgers is not the one putting passes in Adams’ hands, then Green Bay’s top target might not even be a top-10 fantasy WR.

It will be interesting to see how Ridley does as Atlanta’s No. 1 WR and not as the No 1A guy to Julio Jones. Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts should keep secondaries busy over the middle, but while Ridley will probably see a career-high in targets, he will also see a career-high in double teams from opposing defenses.

Metcalf ruined the title hopes of many fantasy managers in 2020 when he slumped down the stretch thanks to a sore ankle (one TD and no 100-yard games over his final five contests), but nobody in the NFL is blessed with the physical skills he has. He runs like a greyhound, leaps like an Olympic high jumper and outmuscles cornerbacks for 50-50 balls all the time. The sky is the limit for Metcalf as he enters his third season.

The move to the desert did not do any harm to Hopkins’ fantasy value. If anything it made him thirsty for more targets. He tied his career-high with 115 receptions, but offensive guru Kliff Kingsbury must design more plays to get Hopkins into the end zone. Hopkins’ half-dozen touchdowns last year were his lowest since 2016.

Tier 2

All Jefferson did was set the NFL rookie record for receiving yards with his 1,400 last season. The only thing he needs to move his fantasy needle even higher is convince quarterback Kirk Cousins to throw the ball to him as much if not more than longtime stalwart Adam Thielen when the Vikes are inside the red zone. Thielen doubled Jefferson’s touchdown total in 2020 (14 to 7).

Brown is a battler and suits up like a champ no matter how sore his body parts are every Sunday. He hobbled his way to 1,075 yards and 11 touchdowns last year and then had surgery on both of his knees this offseason. There is no telling what Brown could do when he is 100-percent healthy, especially now that he has Julio Jones on his opposite flank.

Thomas has more question marks than the Riddler’s jacket thanks to his ankle surgery and Drew Brees’ retirement. Before you write him off, though, just know that Jameis Winston has always been good for the fantasy values of his pass-catchers. Look no further than the years Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had when he was Tampa Bay’s QB.

Robinson is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. The poor guy was able to post 1,000-yard years with the likes of Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky throwing to him. Fantasy managers can only hope rookie phenom Justin Fields gives Robinson the best quarterback he has ever had in his career and the two can make fantasy magic together in 2021.

Tier 3

McLaurin is so good he was able to muster up 87 catches for 1,114 yards in 2020 despite having Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke as his quarterbacks. Having Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm will be like having Dan Marino throwing to him this season.

Seven seasons, seven 1,000-yard years for Evans. He seems to have lost a slight step and has to split targets with several other receivers and tight ends on Tampa’s Super Bowl roster, so Evans is in the right tier.

Cooper has been fantastic since being traded to Dallas, but fantasy players should be wary of the three-headed receiver corps the Cowboys have. Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb (also Tier 3) will improve, as will Dallas’ running game if Ezekiel Elliott and his offensive line bounce back from an injury-plagued 2020. A healthy Dak Prescott alone does not make Cooper a fantasy certainty.

I mostly agree with everything RotoBaller says and does, but I cannot get on board with D.J. Moore being ranked ahead of Julio Jones. A.J. Brown and Corey Davis can attest to the fact that receivers can thrive in Tennessee even with the Titans centering the offense around Derrick Henry.

Tier 4

This is one of the most intriguing tiers. Kupp now has Matthew Stafford as his quarterback, which is a plus. Kenny Golladay no longer has Stafford as his quarterback, which is a minus. Hence, why Kupp is rated higher.

Will Thielen and Lockett lose fantasy ground as Justin Jefferson and D.K. Metcalf force their respective teams’ passing attacks to revolve around their otherworldly talents? Donald Trump has a better chance of being re-elected than Thielen has of scoring 14 touchdowns again, while Lockett’s numbers will come nowhere close to Metcalf’s as the latter’s meteoric rise continues.

Aiyuk is the sleeper of this tier. He has little competition in San Francisco’s receiving corps and has the skills to be a 1,000-yard, eight-TD receiver if his quarterback – whether it is veteran Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance – can consistently put the biscuit in his breadbasket.

Tier 5

There is no telling when Beckham will come back from his torn ACL and what version fantasy managers will see of him when he does come back. OBJ also has not had a 100-yard-game in his last 17 games and has possession powerhouse Jarvis Landry and three quality tight ends tussling for targets in a run-first offense.

It is a coin flip on who will emerge from Cincinnati’s passing attack as the No. 1 WR. That is why Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr chase are virtually ranked the same. And do not be shocked when the dust clears if Joe Burrow’s top target turns out to be Tyler Boyd.

Chark only posted one 100-yard game in 2020 and averaged 13 yards less per game than he did during his scintillating second season. Blame him a bit, but blame his coaching staff, his quarterback and the receivers around him more. All those areas have been shored up thanks to Urban Meyer, Trevor Lawrence and Marvin Jones, respectively, so Chark is a top candidate for one of the biggest fantasy boosts in 2021.

Anderson was a 700-yard receiver when San Darnold was his QB with the N.Y. Jets. Then he became a 1,000-yard receiver in his first year with Carolina. It will be interesting to see which Anderson fantasy managers get this year now that he has been reunited with Darnold in Pantherville.

Tier 6

Cooks is the only receiver in NFL history to record 1,000-yard years with four different teams. He is undoubtedly Houston’s No. 1 WR, but if Deshaun Watson’s off-the-field soap opera keeps him off the field, Cooks’ fantasy worth dries up faster than a lemonade in the Sahara desert.

Jeudy would obviously be better off with the aforementioned Rodgers as his quarterback than Teddy Bridgewater, but before you throw Bridgewater under the bus because you think his tendency to check down hurts his receivers’ fantasy values, check out Carolina’s receivers in 2020. D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel all set career-highs in receiving yards last season with Bridgewater as their signal-caller.

Heisman winner Smith is Philadelphia’s No. 1 WR right out of the gate. That is why he gets a slight nod in the rankings over Boyd, Landry and the Samuels, who are either not the clear No. 1 WR on their teams or the clear No. 2.

Parker will have stiffer competition for targets in 2021 since Miami signed injury-prone speedster Will Fuller and have Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson returning after last season because they were COVID-19 opt-outs.

Williams is seemingly listed as “questionable” on more weeks than he is as “probable” or not listed on the injury report at all, but he usually suits up in the end. He has had a 1,000-yard season and a 10-TD season in his short career and could have both this year if he stays healthy and has his target number go up if Keenan Allen’s target number goes down.

Tier 7

Pittman has the most exciting skills out of Indianapolis’ mediocre receiving corps. While he may not score touchdowns like Zach Pascal or have the resume’ of T.Y. Hilton, Pittman has the makings of having a super sophomore season –- as long as new QB Carson Wentz stays healthy (a gigantic IF) and can find him on passes over 10 yards (another gigantic IF).

Newly-signed Sammy Watkins will help take the pressure off of Brown --- for the six-to-10 games Watkins makes it out onto the field. Brown’s fantasy value would be much higher if he were on almost any other team in the NFL.

Agholor is a home-threat (18.7 YPC and eight TD in 2020), but it is like he is now playing at a ballpark where the fences are 500 feet away down the lines. If Cam Newton is his quarterback and the Patriots continue to go with a run-first approach on offense, Agholor will be hard-pressed to deliver the same stats this season.

Mooney, Gage and Davis are all players with fantasy upside heading into the season because they could all see expanded roles in their offenses. When you get down to a tier this low I prefer to go with the receiver who has boom-or-bust potential rather than the sure veteran who might just give you 800 yards and five scores.

Tier 8

If Hardman cannot take the next step this year and elevate his fantasy value a couple levels, then he is a certified bust. He will face nonstop single coverage all season long. Trot me out there as K.C.’s No. 2 WR and I could probably get 800 yards and six touchdowns, and I have the foot speed of Jabba the Hutt.

You may or may not agree with Beasley’s COVID-related comments this offseason, but the super slot receiver is coming off a career year where he set personal bests in targets, receptions and yards. His skills are more suited to PPR leagues, though, as he has never scored more than six touchdowns in any of his nine seasons.

Things are crowded for Crowder with the Jets. After being their best receiver the past two seasons, now the veteran possession receiver has to battle new multimillionaire Corey Davis and surging youngster Denzel Mims and Elijah Moore for time and targets. If he is moved before the start of the season it would likely be best for his fantasy future.

Tiers 9 and Lower

Call me crazy, but I still think Christian Kirk is someone to stash on a fantasy roster. Forget about DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green being in the fold and an awful stretch at the end of last season where he went scoreless in seven games (with only one 75-yard game during the span). In that Arizona offense, he can have another scintillating streak like he had in 2020 when he racked up 343 yards and six TD over a five-game period --- and a lot more.

I like Tyrell Williams as a fantasy sleeper. Many fantasy managers will forget about him since he missed all of 2020 due to injury, but he is slated to be the No. 1 WR on what appears to be a terrible team that will allow him to rack up meaningless yards and touchdowns when they are nonstop throwing in the second halves of all the games they lose.

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