Early 2021 Standard Rankings Analysis: Tight End

The hearty supply of potent and powerful players at the tight end position heading into the 2021 NFL season are probably making fantasy footballers’ mouths water more than a surf-and-turf combo of filet mignon and lobster tail.

While only two tight ends broke the 1,000-yard barrier (Travis Kelce and Darren Waller) and two had double-digit touchdowns (Kelce and Robert Tonyan) in 2020, there are all types of talents at TE that can help a fantasy general manager win his or her league this upcoming season.

It is never too early to rank players for the upcoming fantasy season. Here is my analysis of RotoBaller’s early 2021 standard rankings at tight end!

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RotoBaller's Early 2021 TE Standard Rankings

Tier 1

All Kelce has done is post five consecutive seasons of at least 80 receptions and 1,000 yards while scoring 38 touchdowns and being targeted an average of 134 times per year. He has also only missed two games in seven seasons and has Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. Kelce is No. 1 at TE, case closed.

Tier 2

You must put Kittle’s injury-marred 2020 campaign in perspective. Over the course of 16 contests, he would have finished with 96 receptions for 1,268 yards with what he averaged in the games he dressed. His 14 touchdowns in 53 career contests and the average-at-best supporting cast around him makes him No. 2 behind Kelce, though.

Waller is coming off back-to-back 1,100-yard years and is the unquestionable top target in Las Vegas’ passing attack, but if super sophomores Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards take positive steps in their development and veteran offseason signings John Brown and Willie Snead take targets as well, Waller might not be aimed at as often as he was the past two seasons.

Tier 3

Andrews has hauled in 17 touchdowns over the past two seasons. You have to wonder how many more he would have scored if he was not mired in a run-first offense with Lamar Jackson as his quarterback.

Hockenson rebounded from his injury-marred rookie campaign to become the top-five fantasy tight end everyone thought he would be someday. He finished third in receiving yards, fourth in receptions and fifth in targets among tight ends in 2020 and should be able to duplicate or surpass those numbers as Detroit’s top target in its passing attack.

Tier 4

Fant’s wide-receiver-like talents and improving skills make him someone to snag in dynasty, keeper and standard leagues, but his six touchdowns in 31 career contests do nobody any fantasy favors. He also needs a quarterback who can consistently get him the ball, and I am not sure that somebody is Teddy Bridgewater.  If it becomes Aaron Rodgers somehow, then Fant's tier level probably goes up a tier.

Goedert has always been a No. 1 TE stuck as a No. 2 behind Zach Ertz in Philadelphia, but if Ertz is traded this offseason (which is as likely as the sun setting in the west) then Goedert becomes the Eagles top tight end and could move up a tier or two. During Weeks 10 through 12 last season when Ertz was injured, Goedert had 16 receptions for 185 yards and two touchdowns. He could easily have 800 yards and eight touchdowns this season if Ertz is elsewhere.

Tonyan was the breakout star at the position last year thanks to his 11 touchdowns. That number could be cut in half if Aaron Rodgers does not return because of his strife with the organization (and his desire to be the host of Jeopardy). Tonyan might drop two tiers if he inexperienced Jordan Love as his starting signal caller.     

Tier 5

Thomas’ transition from quarterback to tight end fully materialized in 2020. His 72-670-6 line probably shocked many since he had barely registered a blip on the fantasy scale during his four other NFL seasons. Having Ryan Fitzpatrick as his QB for 2021 should bump his fantasy value slightly.

Gesicki is coming off his best season as a young pro and his fantasy worth was not stunted by Tua Tagovailoa’s rookie growing pains during the second half of the season. Gesicki was still able to score four touchdowns in Miami’s final five games to help fantasy managers when they needed him most. Luckily Tagovailoa’s problems throwing downfield do not matter much when it comes to throwing to his terrific tight end.

There has not been a rookie tight end surrounded by as much hype and hoopla coming out of college in a long time like Pitts. He should be the perfect fit for Atlanta’s offense, especially since new head honcho Arthur Smith loves designing plays for his tight ends, especially inside the red zone. Just ask Jonnu Smith and his fantasy managers.

Smith Jr. no longer has to play the role of the up-and-coming understudy to veteran Kyle Rudolph in Minnesota. Even though wonderful wideouts Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson will suck up tons of targets, Smith Jr. should still find the end zone six-to-eight times and set a career-high in receiving yards now that he is out of Rudolph’s shadow.

Gronk is not the same player he was during his glory days with New England, yet he was still an above-average fantasy tight end during his comeback season thanks to his 623 receiving yards and seven scores. You never know when he is going to get injured or retire and return to winning titles in the WWE, but he remains a viable fantasy option as long as he is with the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Tier 6

Smith is a touchdown-dependent tight end. While his eight touchdowns in 2020 were superb, he has never had 45 receptions or 450 yards in a season despite playing in the NFL for four years. While I could see him setting career-highs in catches and yards, I would not expect more than 50 receptions or 550 yards since he is not the only high-priced newcomer in New England at tight end.

Engram scored six touchdowns during his fantastic rookie season in 2017. He has scored seven times in the three seasons since. Between his tendency to drop perfect passes, New York signing Kyle Rudolph signing to back him up, and having Daniel Jones as his quarterback, Engram’s fantasy stock is at an all-time low.

Henry may have signed for multimillions, but so did new tight end teammate Smith. While the aforementioned Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez showed a few years ago with the same Patriots organization that two tight ends can be in the same offense and both hold above-average fantasy value, fantasy managers have not really seen it happen since.

Higbee racked up 43 receptions for 522 yards over a five-game stretch in 2019, so his 44-521-5 line over 15 games last season was as disappointing as being stuck watching a dramatic movie set in the 1800s when all you wanted was a slapstick comedy starring Will Ferrell. The good news for Higbee is with Gerald Everett now in Seattle, all the tight end targets should come his way this year.     

Tier 7

Kmet was targeted 34 times over his final half-dozen contests last season and is the Bears’ best all-around tight end, yet the spectre of red-zone genius Jimmy Graham looms over him and his fantasy value in Chicago. He is probably worth more in dynasty leagues than standard leagues since his breakout season might be 2022.

Hooper was not worth the multimillions Cleveland plied him with last offseason and is now stuck in a three-way tight end timeshare with David Njoku and Harrison Bryant. It is hard envisioning him getting 600 yards and six touchdowns in the Browns’ run-heavy offense unless a tight end teammate is traded away.

Ertz has fallen on hard fantasy times thanks to injuries and the collapsing offense around him. He needs a change of scenery to jumpstart the next chapter of his career.

Tier 8

I would personally take Everett over some of the tight ends ranked ahead of him on this list, even though he has only scored eight touchdowns in 61 career contests. He was always underutilized by Sean McVay in L.A. and is one of the better breakaway threats at tight end in the NFL when in open spaces and down seems.

Firkser is a fantasy dark horse at the position. He is Tennessee’s top tight end option with Jonnu Smith gone and he has A.J. Brown and newly-acquired Julio Jones distracting defensive backs. Unless the Titans trade for Ertz or somebody else, Firkser has a bonafide shot at six-to-eight touchdowns.

Hurst’s 56-571-6 line for 2020 was the best year of his short career but still underwhelming for many fantasy GMs. Now he goes from No. 1 TE in Atlanta to mentor to Kyle Pitts, so his fantasy value has nowhere to go but down.

Tiers 9 and Lower

Howard is coming off a season-ending Achilles injury and must deal with sharing tight end targets and time with Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate for a second straight season after probably thinking at least one of them would not return. His value has never been lower. Fantasy managers wish he was wearing another uniform.

Knox caught touchdown tosses in five of his last nine games of 2020, though he ranked last on Buffalo in target-to-reception ratio and now has to contend with Josh Allen’s college teammate Jacob Hollister joining the tight end corps. Buffalo is also another possible landing spot for Ertz, which would decimate Knox’s tenuous fantasy value as well.

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