2021 Points League Rankings - Shortstop

March 19, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut breaks down his 2021 fantasy baseball H2H points league rankings at shortstop. These SS tiered ranks are for head-to-head points leagues.

The ides of January are behind us and fantasy baseball draft season is officially in full swing. And considering that H2H point league players got ran over the most by a 60-game season in 2020, I'm guessing you're just as ready as I am to get things going.

So it points ranks time, baby! If you've forgotten from last year, I have strong opinions on point leagues. TL;DR? You can't just transfer over value from roto and you can't just take players with good BB/K ratios. You must make your values based on your specific rule and not assume that someone who is good in one scoring system will hold the same value as in another system. If you don't, you'll be behind from jump street. Or, at least you won't be as set up for success as you could be.

We covered second base in our first time out, so today we'll take a quick little crow-hop over to shortstop. Call me crazy but I'm hearing there are a few good players at the position.

Methodology and Common Terms

If you've already been reading along at home, feel free to skip ahead to the ranks.

I'll mention this often ( and have mentioned it often); player values can vary wildly depending on your individual league settings. Whether using the standard scoring of the major platforms (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, Fantrax) or custom setting, understanding how players score in your system and how roster sizes affect value is supremely important. The more you leverage this understanding, the more powerful the position you'll be starting from.

Here are the standard roster settings on the aforementioned platforms:

Here are standard scoring settings on the aforementioned platforms:

Hitters

With values varying, it can make doing a general point ranking a little tricky. For example, Ronald Acuna Jr. is a top-five player for me on every platform besides ESPN, where I'd probably put him closer to #20. That's a big swing. So what I've done is to use a "generic" point system as a baseline for doing ranks, as well as talking about per-PA scoring rates. It gives the one-point per-base that all systems generally use, with two points for stolen bases and -.25 points for a strikeout.

This gives us a common baseline so we're at least speaking close to the same language, no matter your platform. But if you're on ESPN, know that you'll need to make heavier adjustments for speed/high K% players.

General System notes

• Yahoo started mirroring their scoring to their daily fantasy game, making the scoring wildly different than other platforms.
• ESPN (-1) and CBS (-.5) both subtract points for strikeouts. This is a monster difference and must be properly accounted for. Take Ronald Acuna Jr. versus Juan Soto in 2019, as an example of the difference over a full season. Acuna had a 26.6% K%, while Soto posted a 20.0% K%. That translated to 188 strikeouts for Acuna and 132 SO for Soto, putting Acuna in a 56-point hole under ESPN scoring. That's a big difference.
• ESPN only gives one point per stolen base. The more a player's value depends on stolen bases (in other scoring formats, as well as roto), the more their value will take a negative hit on ESPN. It's not as an extreme difference as the strikeout scoring but still needs to be accounted for.
• Players who steal a lot of bases and strikeout a lot are going to take big hits on ESPN. Adalberto Mondesi is the most extreme example of players who are essentially not draftable on ESPN when comparing their scoring to likely ADP. But  Jonathan Villar is in a similar boat, as is the aforementioned Acuna Jr. Let's just say that if you see an ESPN point rankings that have Acuna Jr. in the top-10, you should run away.

Data Notes

• Statcast data is taken from EV Analytics and can be slightly different from Baseball Savant due to EV's own methodology. From their glossary:

Note: Statcast stats are calculated live by in-ballpark cameras and radar. These occasionally fail to record data on certain batted balls. All data and projections displayed at EV Analytics that rely on Statcast data identify these missed balls and estimate what they should have been. Internal tests showed this to be slightly more accurate than either ignoring the missing data or using MLB's.

• Barrel - From MLB.com:

"The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented in 2015. 

To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands."

Common Terms

• Barrel% - Barrels per batted-ball event
• Air% - total percent of balls hit in the air (fly balls + line drives)
• Air% average EV - average exit velocity of non-groundballs
• Air % 100+ mph- the percentage of balls hit in the air that had an exit velocity of 100 mph or greater.
• Average EV Top-5% - The average exit-velocity of a player's top-5% hardest-hit balls.
• Average EV Next-20% - The average exit velocity of the next 20% of hardest-hit balls.

In addition to rankings, the charts include how players have scored the last three years in the generic scoring system, as well as what I am currently projecting for 2021. Also included in 2019-20 strikeout rates to better help those who play in leagues where they are punished, make adjustments, as well as wOBA and xwOBA for 2020.

Shortstop Rankings

Tier One

He might be sharing a tier but consider Fernando Tatis Jr. as the sole resident of Tier One (A). While he is close in ranking to some of his fellow shortstops, I see a significant gap in his points scored compared to the next players on the list. Tatis scored at a rate of 1.02 pts/pa in 2020, after .95 pts/pa in 2019. Even if you think he's closer to 2019 than 2020 (which I don't), Tatis is a top-three hitter in any scoring format if he finishes in the 650-675 PA range.

I might think he's a step behind Tatis Jr. but that doesn't mean I think Trea Turner is any sort of slouch. Turner slashed .335/.394/.588 over 259 PA, with 12 HR and 12 SB. While I do think the stolen bases will tick back up, I don't think he'll be hitting home runs at a .048 HR per-PA pace again, as his home run rate spiked without also seeing a spike in key power indicators, other than a small increase in Brl%.

Looking at Turner's top-end exit velocities, launch angles, and batted-ball profile from 2020, nothing really screams sustained power breakout:

But really, these aren't reasons to dislike Turner in 2021, it's more to explain why I'm not putting him on the same level as Tatis. In most scoring formats (cough..not ESPN..cough), getting Turner in the first round won't disappoint.

No, I won't be saying anything bad about Trevor Story. Not even to troll Nick Mariano. Story slashed .289/.355/.519 in 2020, with 11 HR and 15 SB, even with the lowest HR/FB% of his career.  Simply put, Story is a stud and he'll continue to be a stud. Much like Freddie Freeman, Story is one of the safest and most consistent scorers in point leagues, even if he's not the most exciting pick in the world. But you can draft him at the end of the first round and be confident you'll get your value back.

Tier Two

With Francisco Lindor now a New York Met, the better offense does earn him a slight bump up in my rankings. But not enough to get back into the first tier of shortstops, as I still have the same questions about his power that I had pre-trade.

After peaking in 2018, Lindor's exit velocities at the top of the spectrum have now decreased for the last two seasons:

I'm not saying he's in decline (he's still only 27-years-old, after all) but do wonder if we need to adjust our expectations from the 30-35 HR he put up from 2017-19 and make 30 HR more of a ceiling, particularly now that he's calling Citi Field home.

I don't know about you but I'm ready to accept that the 2019-20 version of Tim Anderson is due to a change in talent and will be sticking around for a bit. After winning the AL batting crown in 2019, Anderson slashed .322/.357/.529 in 2020, with an xBA that was comfortably in the top-10% of baseball in both seasons. with a career-high .430 xwOBAcon in 2020.

Anderson's averages weren't empty either, with his .207 ISO and .376 wOBA both representing career-highs, as was his .045 HR per-PA. Even spicier, Anderson's exit velocities have risen just as steadily:

Besides not doubting Anderson's talent, I'm not doubting his place in the world. He's locked into a leadoff spot at the top of what looks to be one of baseball's most dangerous offenses and plays his home games at one of the best hitting environments available. No* doubts in 2021.

*Okay, technically one doubt. There is about a 22% chance that new White Sox manager Tony LaRussa (ie..the silliest and most ill-fitting managerial hire in recent memory) totally sinks Chicago's season, successfully sucking the fun out of Anderson in the process.

Xander Bogaerts is getting filed under the same banner as Anderson and won't be doubting his point league excellence after scoring at consistently elite rates for the last three seasons. He's locked into the middle of Boston's lineup (which surely can't be as big of a trash pile as it was in 2020) and is again poised to be a top-30 player. Because even if his production dips, the sheer volume of plate-appearances should make up for it.

I probably have Corey Seager too low, right? Seager increased his Barrel% from 7.9% in 2019 to 16.0% in 2020,  his Air% (100+ mph) from 24.5% to 50.5% in 2020, and his Air% average EV from 91.6 mph to 93.5 mph. Those increases are really significant but part of the reason they're so large is that Seager had dropped so low in 2019 from where he was in 2017-2018. His Air% (100+ mph) was around 40% in both those years, while his Air% average EV was 93.0 mph in 2017 and 90.6 mph in 2018. So which is the real version? I'll go with one that isn't quite as good as the 2020 Seager but still much better than what we'd seen earlier.

**We know direct your attention to fantasy baseball-mandated coverage discussing how polarizing Adalberto Mondesi is**

Hey! Adalberto Mondesi is polarizing! Discuss amongst yourselves.

Let's get one thing out of the way. If you play on ESPN, CBS, or any other format that punishes strikeouts, Mondesi will likely not be worth whatever his ADP is, even if he does have an amazing year. Especially ESPN, where he'll only get one-point per stolen base. On other platforms, his upside is closer to what it is in roto but not quite considering the outsized value that his 60+ SB potential can bring. In points, Mondesi can still return value but a top-25 ADP is far too much to pay for a profile that carries as much risk as he does.

Tier Three

Since his production peaked in 2018, Javier Baez has struck out more, while walking less, hitting less, and stealing less. Basically, just less. This is not a recipe for success under any format but particularly in points. It's just hard to be good at points with a 30% K% and 3% BB%:

There are also some troubling trends in Baez's exit velocities, with his Air% average EV dropping to 91.o mph (2018: 96.2 mph, 2019: 95.8 mph) and his Air% (100+ mph) dropping to 34.4% (2018: 47.3%, 2019: 44.9%). There's no way that Baez is as bad in 2021 as he was in 2020, right? I don't think so but I've got enough concerns that a top-70 draft price just isn't going to make sense for me.

The good news is that Dansby Swanson finally played a whole year. The bad news is that it was only a 60-game season. So if a Swanson falls into a full year during a pandemic, has a Swanson really fallen? He continued to make excellent contact in 2020, posting a .426 xwOBAcon after a .429 xwOBAcon in 2019, while his top-end exit velocities also continued their upward trend. Swanson's Air% average EV did drop from 91.0 mph in 2019 to 89.2 mph in 2020 but his 35.8% Air% (100+ mph) increased for the third-straight season, after sitting at 31.3% in 2019, 23.5% in 2018, and 19.9% in 2017.

If you could guarantee me 650 PA, I'd be all about Swanson being a borderline top-75 player in points. But unfortunately, that's a hard number to trust for a player who has never crossed 551 PA due to parts of his foot occasionally falling off.

Tier Four

Marcus Semien is so much of a points machine that he gets near the top-100 even without being currently employed. He's not going to be the .86 pts per-PA force that he was in 2019 but even in a bad 2020 (236 PA: .223/.305/.374, .64 pts/pa) Semien was still the #15 shortstop. In part, this is because he racks up plate-appearances, with 703 PA in 2018 and 747 PA in 2019. Maybe he's just a compiler but steady compilers can be really valuable in points.

Looks like we've reached the hate on the Astros portion of today's show! It's not (solely ; ) that I'm hating on Carlos Correa because of my firm belief that baseball is a lot harder when you don't know what pitch is coming; my hate goes much deeper.

For one thing, Correa is to injuries as Astros are to sign-stealers. He reached 660 PA in 2016 but hasn't crossed 468 PA since and frankly, I'm not going to assume he'll reach 600 PA until I see him actually do it again. To be fair, that's kind of cheating considering Correa played in 58 of 60 games in 2020 and was on pace to finish well above 600 PA. But technically, that's still a win and I'll take it!

And besides issues with his soft tissues, Correa also hit his balls in the air a lot softer in 2020:

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the true Correa is what we saw in 2019 and all he has to do to prove he's a top-five shortstop is finally get one of those 650 PA seasons everyone's been hoping for. But I'm afraid that's going to be a no for me, dog.

I already liked Andres Gimenez when he didn't have an everyday job for the Mets and would likely bat 6th-7th when he did play. So, you better believe that I like him after his trade to Cleveland, where he'll play every day and probably bat leadoff. The 22-year-old held his own in 132 PA in 2020, slashing .263/.333/.398 with 3 HR and 8 SB. That's a pretty good line in roto and it was just as good in points, with Gimenez scoring  .78 pts per-PA in our generic scoring system, a rate not that far behind Dansby Swanson and Adalberto Mondesi - and significantly higher than Francisco Lindor.

However, just as important to increasing his value in points is the improved situation. Prior to the trade, Gimenez was projected by Depth Charts for 574 PA (although I thought he would hit his way closer to 600 PA. But the combination of a likely spot at the top of the order and no competition for everyday at-bats puts him in the 640 PA range for me. Plus-talent plus plus-PAs equals plus points player. Math. Boom*

Whether using him at shortstop or second base (where he'll actually play), at a 225 ADP, David Fletcher is criminally underrated in points. Fletcher doesn't strikeout (10.3% K% and 3.3% SwStr% for his career) and just posted a .376 OBP in 2020, up from a .350 OBP in 2019. Oh, and he'll bat leadoff in with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon following behind. Fletcher has done nothing but score points at an above-average rate and is now set up to accumulate a pile of plate appearances. That can change depending on what the Angels do in free agency but as things currently stand, Fletcher is simply easy money.

Depending on where he signs, my ranking of Didi Gregorius could shift significantly. Because if he lands in another hitter-friendly stadium with a good lineup (like back with the Phillies or Yankees), he'll belong, at least, in the Correa/Gimenez range of hitters. If that strikes you as crazy, it probably shouldn't.

Gregorius was the sixth-highest scorer last year among shortstops, scoring more than Xander Bogaerts, Adalberto Mondesi, Tim Anderson, and Francisco Lindor. Due to injury, Gregorius only reached 344 PA in 2o19 but still averaged the 18-highest scoring rate, finishing in the same range as Tim Anderson and Corey Seager. And in 2018, Gregorius was also the sixth-highest scoring shortstop, both in total points and points per-PA.

Tier Five

Slashing .270/.366/.476, with a .358 wOBA and .431 xwOBAcon in 56 games and 214 PA, Chris Taylor heads into 2021 seemingly with a lock on the Dodgers second base job. Taylor has been a points star for years, even if consistent playing time hasn't always been there, averaging .80 pts/pa in 2020, after .73 pts/pa in 2019, and .70 pts/pa in 2018.

It's not just Taylor's rate of scoring that keeps rising because, after a down year in 2019, his exit velocities shot right back up in 2020:

Given his stolen base upside, I can partially understand the top-150 ADP  of Jonathan Villar in roto leagues. But that's only if he finds a starting job in a crowded middle infield market, which doesn't seem guaranteed. If he lands in a situation where 550-ish PA seems likely, then Villar will be a no-go for me, especially in strikeout-penalizing formats. However, if he were to land back with Baltimore in an everyday role, his value could skyrocket.

As a counterpoint, regardless of his future employer, Villar will need to be better than this:

Tiers Six and Seven

Ranking Jake Cronenworth inside the top-200 is aggressive considering he seems likely to be out of a starting job following the Padres signing of Ha-Seong Kim. But I'm a believer in Cronenworth and how well his game profiles in point leagues. I'm also a believer that we shouldn't assume that a really good KBO hitter will instantly be as good of a hitter in the MLB. And with Cronenworth's positional flexibility, my ranking is based on him being a good enough hitter to find his way to 525+ PA. If he can manage that, Cronenworth will return a top-175 value.

Even if you throw out last season as an outlier, Miguel Rojas has been a steady per-PA producer in points, averaging .57 pts/pa in 2018 and .61 pts/pa in 2019 before exploding for .88 pts/pa in 2020. Even using Depth Charts' conservative estimates of .61 pts/pa over 607 PA, Rojas would return nearly top-200 value and won't be drafted in most leagues.

Niko Goodrum may have only slashed .184/.263/.335 in 2020 but still scored .57 pts/pa. Not a stellar rate but even if he only matches that rate in 2021, he'll be a top-250 player if he reaches 600 PA. But Goodrum posted a .68 pts/pa rate in both 2018-19 and increased his Air% average EV from 90.7 mph to 93.2 mph in 2020, while his Air% (100+ mph) increased from 30.5% to 32.7%. As long as he's getting consistent playing time in Detroit, Goodrum will earn his keep in most point systems.

Our second player in this tier of player underappreciated in points, J.P. Crawford is an average player (at best) on a bad team but will be batting at the top of the order and has scored at a consistently strong rate since hitting the majors:

Impressive? Not really but it'll play under most scoring formats as long as Crawford reaches 600+ PA.

Nick Ahmed is yet another player who gets ignored in points because players are used to his ho-hum value in roto. But in points, Ahmed is a (relative) force, scoring .70 pts/pa in 2020, after .73 pts/pa in 2019, and .65 pts/pa in 2018. The ceiling is limited but Ahmed is remarkably consistent in his plate discipline and quality of contact and has an everyday role that'll bring plenty of playing time.

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