X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

2021 NFL Draft Review - AFC South

Andrew Lalama goes into detail to break down each team's performance in the 2021 NFL Draft, this time with the AFC South. How will this year's rookies grade out in the future and impact fantasy football players?

Hello and welcome to the first 2021 installment of my annual NFL Draft Review. Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players.  The vast majority of 4th-7th round picks don't amount to much, so I stick to the first three rounds.  I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on and have over seven years NCAA coaching experience. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 19% of all first-round picks bust.

Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level. I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. Nevertheless, this is a fun exercise and gives us a chance to review how each team approached the draft.

Over the years I've had some impressive hits (like picking both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota to underwhelm) and embarrassing misses (like underestimating Justin Jefferson).  I stick to my process and usually hit on some unpopular predictions.  I enjoy arguing the contrarian opinion, but will only do so when my evaluations allow me to.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Overview

Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Kyle Pitts (5). Here's how the picks break down:

5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position.
4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position.
3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production.
2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions.
1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.

First up, the AFC South.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence (4) has been hyped as a future No. 1 pick since his freshman season at Clemson, when he led the Tigers to a National Championship. Lawrence has all the traits of a star franchise QB, including size, arm talent, athletic ability and an unmistakably unique look. Lawrence’s film wasn’t flawless, but he performed well even after losing his top two WRs this past season. Coming from a play action and screen-heavy offensive scheme will make his transition a bit tougher than people realize, as there were multiple instances on film that made me question his ability to identify coverages. There’s no doubt he has the aptitude to learn the pro game, and the Jaguars have surrounded him with several electric skill position players.

Could I make the point that his historical prospect standing (same level as Luck?) was a bit inflated because he feasted on overmatched ACC opponents? And that twice when he did face off against elite competition he was outdueled by Joe Burrow and Justin Fields in playoff games the past two years? No, because the draft is about projecting traits to the next level more than evaluating college performance. Lawrence is fast and has a great arm.  You can read my full Prospect Profile with film clips of Lawrence here.

Almost every year a team takes an RB in the first round, the analytics community bashes the team and I defend the pick in the name of Best Player Available. Don’t ever take an RB in the first and RBs don’t matter they say. Just looking at the results, it’s clear the analytics community is correct that it is not optimal team-building to draft an RB in the first round. I was wrong to defend selections of Josh Jacobs and Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley and Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the list goes on.  Even for as amazing as Christian McCaffrey has been, including his prodigious pass-catching, the Panthers haven't done much winning with him as the focal point.  So I will not defend the Jags’ selection of Trevor Lawrence’s Clemson teammate Travis Etienne. HOWEVER, I can still pick Etienne (4) to be a stellar pro. And is there really that big of a difference between No. 25 and say, No. 40, where all of the sudden it would be a smart pick? Etienne also has receiving skills and true home-run-hitting potential unlike a Josh Jacobs... WAIT A MINUTE - STOP DEFENDING THIS PICK.

The proven and valid arguments against drafting RBs in the first are opportunity cost, ability to find RBs later, and the fact that RBs really just don’t matter that much. So I’ll pick Etienne to be a fine pro, but agree with the analytics community that it was the wrong pick. On the field, the former Clemson star was phenomenal, scoring 70 (yes, 7-0) touchdowns in his four years as a Tiger. He didn’t belong on a college field anymore and his speed absolutely plays in the league. I do question his ability to run between the tackles, as his lack of physicality might be an issue in certain situations. Etienne's star faded a bit throughout the process due to his position, age, and prospect fatigue.  He’s an elite talent with a bright fantasy and real-life future.

At the top of the second, the Jags landed Tyson Campbell (2) who has the height-weight-speed mix teams covet at the CB position. Unfortunately, he did not play well against Alabama, as DeVonta Smith beat him on multiple routes while Jaylen Waddle simply ran by him. He did pile-drive Smith after getting beat badly on a dig, which highlighted his physicality and size. He also gave up more catches and TDs to Josh Palmer and Tennessee. For someone so physically gifted with fluid hips and balance, I didn’t love his film. He’ll get beat a lot in the NFL.

I had Walker Little (3) as the 43rd overall player on my board. He hasn’t played since early 2019, but was a top recruit coming out of high school. He’s a knee-bender with good balance and showed the ability to toss guys on film. He probably needs to get stronger, but more importantly, needs to just play. I expect him to take over as a starting tackle in his 2nd year and fare well.

Andre Cisco (1) had some ball production and the size to get him drafted but he looked like he didn’t belong speed-wise against Tutu Atwell, Javian Hawkins, and Louisville, got beat in man coverage against UNC, and missed an angle for run-after-catch TD against Wake Forest. He’s instinctive and opportunistic, but he doesn’t have the man coverage ability or block-defeating skills to be anything more than a one-dimensional post safety.

The Jaguars came out of this draft with a franchise QB and some building blocks on offense.  If their young defensive talent can improve (Allen, Chaisson, Henderson), watch out.

 

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts came into this offseason with a solid foundation but a gaping hole at QB. They traded for Carson Wentz, who has had a tumultuous career so far to say the least. Reunited with Frank Reich with a mostly solid supporting cast, Wentz has a chance to rebound in a big way. The trade for Wentz is just another reminder that tanking for a top draft pick is NOT the only way to address the QB position.

As for their draft haul, I thought the Colts should have taken a left tackle with one of their first two picks. I normally like doubling up on a position of need, and I’m a proponent of BPA.  Kwity Paye (2) was not the BPA in my opinion, and you could make a strong case that Christian Darrisaw was. The Colts passing on Darrisaw in the first might mean they didn't project him as an LT.

Paye's quickness is borderline folklore at this point, and he plays with the same twitch his legendary three-cone would indicate. Paye wasn't super productive in the sack department, tallying just 11.5 in 28 career games in college.

He plays with a high motor, is tremendous in pursuit, and had no issue showcasing his quicks on stunts and inside against guards. At 6-4, 272, Paye has all the tools to develop into a quality pro pass rusher. However, his film is questionable in the sense that most of his sacks do not appear to translate, taking advantage of interior offensive linemen and subpar tackles to get after the QB. While hustle sacks obviously showcase his effort as an important trait, his football-specific pass-rushing skills aren’t that impressive. 3-cone is the most predictive test for pass-rushers, but I just didn’t love his film and there’s a reason an EDGE with his athletic profile wasn’t considered a top-10 pick.

I actually thought Dayo Odeyingbo (3) was a better pick value-wise. Odeyingbo may not do much this year coming of an Achilles injury, but he has all the traits of a solid pro pass-rusher. He’s athletic and violent with the ability to finish, and showed a quick inside move to beat the LSU RT while also showing some pop against the LSU LT. Odeyingbo is just unrefined but the draft is about traits and the Colts have done a good job developing talent.

I was one of few (any?) to pick Carson Wentz to disappoint as a pro and aside from one stretch of his career his flaws from NDSU just haven’t been fixed. I don’t think he’s the long-term answer, and I think the Colts have set themselves up for major issues along the OL. When Wentz was successful in Philly, he had an amazing OL. Indy will have to move Quentin Nelson to LT or start Sam Tevi or Julien Davenport. I would feel better at this situation if they signed Eric Fisher.

 

Tennessee Titans

Mike Vrabel was visibly frustrated on the sidelines on multiple occasions last year, so there was no doubt the defense would be addressed in this class. Caleb Farley (3) carries risk due to health concerns, but I’m also not so sure his transition will be as easy as some think.

Farley was once considered a top-10 player in some draft circles, as he has ideal size, speed, length, coverage instincts, and ball skills. However, a back injury has forced him to have surgery, and those questions influenced his draft stock.

I didn't have Farley as a top-20 player even before the injury news. Certain reps on his film do warrant some concerns, which are curiously left out of most discussions about his pro prospects. He was burned from a tight split corner route against Miami and didn't show a consistent ability to get his head around in man defending verticals.

College ball production and making plays in cover two prove he's a quality football player, but the NFL is a different beast entirely, especially for CBs. Is he quick enough to stay with pro receivers at the next level? He has ideal size and athleticism but a couple of gift interceptions against Miami (yes, including the impressive one-hander) may have inflated his stock a bit.

In the second, the Titans took Dillon Radnuz (2) to compete for their open right tackle spot. Radnuz had some first-round buzz, but I didn’t see it on his film. He showed excellent movement skills and violence, but I wasn’t blown away by his technique against FCS defenders. He worked in at guard at the Senior Bowl and generally struggled with quickness. On the outside, he crossed his feet and got destroyed by speed way too much for my liking. I’d rather play him at guard than at tackle.

Monty Rice (1) has some toughness and was a very productive college player, but he’s not natural enough an athlete to have his average level of key-and-diagnose. He needs to be kept clean and isn’t really a plus in coverage so I’m not a huge fan of this pick.

Elijah Molden (3) was fascinating to study. He’s small and not fast (4.58) but his film shows as good a pure football player there was at DB in this class. Unfortunately, the NFL requires a level of speed and quickness that is extremely difficult for 4.5-plus DBs to adjust to. Molden is instinctive and has that innate cover trait and a lot of ball production. Can he stick with elite athletes in the slot? I’ll give him a chance to stick as a solid nickel so Titans fans don’t want to kill me.

 

Houston Texans

In the 2020 NFL Draft, QB8 (Jake Fromm) went in the fifth round at 167 overall. In 2019, the QB8 went at 166 overall. In 2019, a year in which five QBs went in the first, QB8 went at 171 overall. This year, the Texans took QB8 Davis Mills at 67 overall, which is just crazy. It speaks to how the league is valuing the position and how the league felt about this particular class of QBs.

I didn’t love Davis Mills (2) as a prospect and I obviously don’t love his landing spot in Houston. Mills has a terrific arm and the ball jumps out of his hand, but his film was filled with issues. He guides the ball and does not show great anticipation. There were instances of low misses, not seeing the one-high safety when reading double-post, and being late and behind over the middle. He showed touch at times but was “just blind in quick game” (from my notes).  Stanford ran the ball to beat Cal in 2020 and threw a ton of screens, which makes his pedestrian production look even worse.

I like his back-shoulder placement and elusiveness in the pocket, but I have a pretty straightforward rule of “don’t expect QBs to produce better in the NFL than they did in college.” He has some nice traits and will likely get playing time early, but I’m not expecting much, especially in that situation.

Nico Collins (3) on the other hand was one of my favorite mid-round WR prospects. He suffered from subpar QB play at Michigan but has the tools to be a quality pro WR. At 6-4, 215, Collins blazed an unofficial 4.42 40 at his pro day, and his deep speed pops on film. He had a nice catch in traffic against Alabama, and won a lot of his one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl, winning with his big body and athleticism. He's solid at the catch-point as well. The issue with Collins is that he's not twitchy enough in and out of breaks, especially at the top of his routes. He had a chance to win a game against Penn State, but ran a weak goal-line comeback route and was smothered. Even with his flaws, the tools are there to develop into a productive pro, and he should have no issue cracking the Texans' receiver rotation early in his rookie year.

Finally, Brevin Jordan (2) probably won’t ever be an elite pro receiving threat but he tries as a blocker and has speed. As a developmental pick, it makes sense but Jordan wasn’t really winning routes or one-on-one blocks against UAB. The Texans have major organizational issues and this draft class probably isn’t going to fix them. I apologize for not finishing this article with a happy ending.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for the other divisions in the coming days.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake Mangum15 mins ago

Exits Game With Groin Tightness
Ryan Pressly24 mins ago

Dealing With Knee Issues
George Kittle26 mins ago

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Jac Caglianone27 mins ago

Stays Hot On Wednesday
Tyler Lockett38 mins ago

Joining The Titans
Allan Winans49 mins ago

Strikes Out 10 On Wednesday At Triple-A
50 mins ago

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders1 hour ago

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL1 hour ago

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
Marcelo Mayer1 hour ago

With Two More Multi-Hit Performances Wednesday
New Orleans Saints1 hour ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb1 hour ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens2 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice2 hours ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
2 hours ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson2 hours ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
MLB2 hours ago

Rockies-Royals Rained Out On Wednesday
Zach Eflin2 hours ago

To Throw A Side Session Later This Week
Justin Martinez2 hours ago

"All Indications" Justin Martinez Will Be Available On Wednesday
Zack Wheeler3 hours ago

Records Nine Strikeouts
Jared Jones3 hours ago

To Undergo MRI This Week
Luis Rengifo3 hours ago

Returns On Wednesday
Chandler Simpson3 hours ago

Sitting Out Versus Lefty
Joc Pederson3 hours ago

Taking A Seat Versus Southpaw
Leody Taveras3 hours ago

Sitting Out On Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski4 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis4 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Corey Seager4 hours ago

Goes On 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Michael Porter Jr.5 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings5 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson5 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jonathan Aranda5 hours ago

Sitting Against Southpaw
Jake Fromm5 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Logan O'Hoppe5 hours ago

Out Against Pirates
Seattle Seahawks5 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions5 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell5 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Seiya Suzuki6 hours ago

Scratched On Wednesday With Wrist Soreness
Brandin Podziemski6 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford6 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.6 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum6 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart6 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI7 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha7 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Will Smith7 hours ago

Out With Sore Wrist On Wednesday
Connor Wong7 hours ago

Likely To Go On Rehab Assignment This Weekend
Nikolaj Ehlers7 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Lucas Giolito7 hours ago

Could Make Season Debut Next Thursday
Miro Heiskanen7 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg7 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane7 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog7 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Denver Broncos9 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans9 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons9 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys9 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints9 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
9 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Jaren Jackson Jr.15 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander15 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman15 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam15 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo15 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges15 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA15 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle15 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland15 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić15 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy15 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard15 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale15 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens15 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate16 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard16 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares16 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout16 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen16 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia16 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young16 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov16 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk16 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen16 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli16 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi16 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg16 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane17 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa1 day ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry1 day ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening1 day ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass1 day ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Nikola Jokić2 days ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF