2021 NFL Draft Review - AFC North

Hello and welcome to the fifth 2021 installment of my annual NFL Draft Review. Here are the links to the reviews for the NFC East, AFC East, AFC South, and NFC South.

Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players.  The vast majority of 4th-7th round picks don't amount to much, so I stick to the first three rounds.  I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on and have over seven years NCAA coaching experience. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 19% of all first-round picks bust.

Over the years I've had some impressive hits (like picking both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota to underwhelm) and embarrassing misses (like underestimating Justin Jefferson).  I stick to my process and usually hit on some unpopular predictions.  I enjoy arguing the contrarian opinion, but will only do so when my evaluations allow me to.

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Overview

Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example, Kyle Pitts (5). Here's how the picks break down:

5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position.
4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position.
3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production.
2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions.
1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.

Next up, the AFC North.

Cincinnati Bengals

The No. 5 overall pick was a case study in NFL draft philosophy.  Proponents of Best Player Available probably agreed with the Bengals’ selection of Ja’Marr Chase, while those who prefer addressing needs loudly recommended Penei Sewell.  The craziest part about the debate is that you could make a case that Sewell is indeed a better prospect than Chase.  I didn’t hear much of that argument though, which speaks to how great a prospect Chase is.  My take - they really couldn’t go wrong, as I thought both Chase and Sewell were two of the best prospects of the past 10 years at their respective positions.

Chase (5) fits in as the alpha of a loaded WR corps in Cincinnati, re-uniting with his college QB Joe Burrow.  Smooth and strong with plucky hands, Chase operates skillfully in tight spaces and is great “in a phone booth” whether at the line of scrimmage against press or down the field hand-fighting.  He’ll be a star.  I get more in-depth in my analysis of Chase’s film in his Prospect Profile.

The Bengals obviously had to address the OL in round two and did so with one of the weirdest prospect situations in the draft.  Jackson Carman (3) was an All-American at Clemson and curiously had little-to-no hype as a prospect.  Sticking to the film, he showed aggression that Cincinnati fans will love.  He’s not very quick and almost looks like he’s bending from his back, but has heavy hands.  The Clemson offense wasn’t exactly a teaching tape for pro OL play, but Carman has the traits and nastiness to fit in as a guard.  Assuming his lack of hype wasn’t character-related, his on-field talent puts his absolute floor as a versatile 6^th-man.  I wonder how many in the loud pro-Sewell-at-five “Burrow is going to get killed” segment of Twitter know that both Jonah Williams and Riley Reiff graded out well last season.  The Bengals needed a guard more than a tackle, and they got a talented one in Carman.

In the third, the Bengals took a shot in a muddied EDGE class on Texas’ Joseph Ossai (1).  Ossai was the 91^st ranked player on my board so I don’t think it was good value.  He has straight-line speed and made a ridiculous strip 30 yards downfield in pursuit, but lacks elite bend and flexion.  His length and speed make him a worthwhile project, but he’s not strong enough and has very few pass rush moves.  He just tries to win with speed and that won’t play in the NFL.  There were better players on the board.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The worst kept secret prior to the draft was that the Steelers would take Najee Harris in the first round.  They were actually ridiculed by the analytics community for even just being interested in an RB that high.  Once they actually made the pick, they were bashed even more.  Unfortunately, I agree that taking a running back in the first round is pretty much always the wrong choice. Read more in the Jaguars section of my AFC South review. I can still love Najee Harris as a player, though.

What’s been lost in this whole conversation about the value of RBs is the actual evaluation of this RB.  Let me be clear - Najee Harris (5) would have been a top-5 pick 10 years ago.  Harris was one of the top recruits in the country in high school and did nothing but perform and get better at the college level.  His upside is scary.  In fact, it wouldn’t shock me if he developed into the best RB in the NFL by 2024.

Najee Harris just does things.  That's the best way to describe his style. Creativity is the most underrated trait in scouting RBs and Harris is an artist. Coming off an incredibly productive career at Bama (4624 yards from scrimmage, 57 touchdowns), Harris has the frame (6-2, 230) and film of a workhorse back. While he doesn't always run as physical as his size suggests, his ability to spin off contact, leap over defenders, and make guys miss is special. Harris is more Jeremy Hill than Derrick Henry, but he showed elite durability and improved receiving skills during his time at Alabama.  The Steelers prefer a workhorse back and Harris can be their new Le’Veon Bell.  He had three receiving TDs in the SEC Championship.  The Pittsburgh offensive line isn’t exactly Alabama’s, but they still have DeCastro, added a couple of free agents, and drafted two more.  Harris is going to be a force as early as his rookie year.

So did I just pick Najee Harris to be the best RB in the league but also say it wasn’t a smart pick?  I need to create a new philosophy.  Instead of BPA, how about BNRBA.  And moving on to Pittsburgh’s second pick, do I also need to create BNRBOTEA?  Because although I like Pat Friermuth, I completely understand the math behind questioning a team investing their first two premium picks in the least important positions on offense.

The Steelers have had success developing TEs over the years and Pat Friermuth (3) is a solid second-round TE prospect with no major weaknesses. He is a bit laborious in terms of movement skills, but he can catch in traffic and is versatile enough to block and run routes from various alignments. His blocking is inconsistent, but there are reps where he executes different types of assignments well. I predict he’ll add some strength and become a top-10 NFL TE by 2024.

In the third, the Steelers finally addressed the OL with Illinois’ Kendrick Green (2).  Green will probably start at center early and some draft analysts had him ranked pretty high.  I had him as my 96^th ranked overall player and didn’t see anything more than a replacement-level pro.  Green was uprooted by bigger Northwestern DL, took contact rather than delivering it, didn’t run his feet well on contact, and had a whiff in space.  I did like his body positioning and low leverage, but I think his ceiling is an average player.  With a star like Najee Harris, that just might be enough.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens came into the draft needing a big-bodied WR and filled that need with one of the most challenging evaluations in this class in Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman.

Bateman (3) is naturally gifted in terms of hands and route-running. He had the deep dig and post-out routes mastered at Minnesota and showcased the rare ability to track the football and complete catches in traffic. Bateman doesn't project as much of a deep threat or run-after-catch threat, but he's a solid all-around WR. His sharp breakpoints are better than his speed breakpoints, which he'll need to work on at the next level.

I went back and forth with Bateman.  At times he looks like he can be a legitimate WR1 but his 2020 film wasn’t always elite and he was the No. 2 option behind Tyler Johnson in 2019.  Is he just a guy?  Probably not.  Is Lamar Jackson the right QB to unlock his potential?  I’ll say sure with some trepidation.

At No. 31, the Ravens went EDGE with Penn State’s Odafe Oweh (2).  The 6-5, 252-pound Oweh ran a blistering 4.39 40 to go along with other elite athletic testing numbers including a 6.83 time in the all-important 3-cone drill, the most predictive drill for pass rushers. Oweh's film doesn't always scream first-round pick. He makes a lot of plays five-plus yards past the line of scrimmage, struggled with the Ohio State left tackle, and wasn't consistent in showing planned pass-rush moves. However, the best of his film shows a feisty, strong, edge-setter with enough speed-to-power to really threaten the edge.  I just wish there were more translatable reps against tough competition.  There’s a reason this EDGE class wasn’t thought highly of and over 50% of all picks 21-32 disappoint.  I’ll pick a rare whiff from the Ravens here.

In the late third, the Ravens made me feel pretty good about myself as an evaluator.  When scouting the guards in this class, I really didn’t like big names like Quinn Meinerz, Deonte Brown, and Trey Smith.  I did like Ben Cleveland (3).  Cleveland sure looks the part and showed pretty good hands in pass pro, especially against Auburn.  He’s able to downblock on power and get to the second level on zone runs.  He whiffs in space and got beat by quickness against Missouri, but he mostly just does his job.  He’ll be a starter but probably won’t ever be elite.

With their last pick of the second night, the Ravens took a developmental prospect in Brandon Stephens (2) of SMU.  Stephens transferred from UCLA, walked on at SMU, and moved from RB to CB, before starting for the Mustangs.  He was also a team captain.  Stephens is 6-1, 213 and ran a 4.44, so he has the athleticism to play CB.  The Ravens may try him at safety.  He wasn’t on my radar pre-draft, but I liked what I watched after the draft in terms of traits.  He has some ball skills and moves well.  He’s just very reactive and doesn’t show great instincts, which is expected from a former RB recruit.  He got beat by a post against Memphis and didn’t look comfortable in man despite his athletic traits.  At worst, he’ll cover kicks.

Cleveland Browns

Are the Browns Super Bowl-bound?  When writing mock drafts this draft season, I noticed how few holes the Browns roster actually has on paper.  Head Coach Kevin Stefanski was terrific last season, and if the defense can improve, they are legitimate contenders.  Everyone is praising this draft class, and I mostly agree.

In the first, Cleveland filled a need at CB with Greg Newsome II (3).  Newsome was a late-riser during the draft process, but I liked his film a lot even before he got all the first-round hype.  He shows terrific natural coverage ability with his eyes married to his feet. Newsome plays with swagger and confidence, which are necessary traits in the offense-driven NFL. He was able to drive on the boundary quick out, a route that not many corners actually defend. He then matched the out-and-up perfectly, displaying smarts and instincts. He also showed the knack for breaking up passes and staying with verticals on the boundary. He undercut a comeback and showed the fluidity that projects as a versatile cover guy who can play both the slot and outside. Newsome is not a powerful player, but he tackles low and has great feet.

Over 50% of all picks 21-32 disappoint, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Newsome fell through the cracks.  The injuries worry me, as does his lack of play strength.  Playing CB in the NFL is hard.  However, I believe if he can stay on the field, Newsome will pay off his draft slot by making a clutch PBU in the AFC Championship game on 4^th down.

In the second, the Browns selected a free-falling Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (3), my 14^th-ranked player in this class.  The rumor is that JOK fell due to a heart issue, but I don’t buy that.  I think the NFL just doesn’t value small off-ball LBs.  The Browns are the beneficiaries of rigid outdated size requirements.  They just stole possibly the next Darius Leonard.

JOK is an athletic marvel who plays a different speed than everyone else on the field. He closes space like lightning and has highlights of huge hits, forced fumbles, and an intercepted pitch against Clemson. He's theoretically good in coverage, although there are limited reps of him displaying that ability on film. The best thing about studying JOK is that he has film against the top-two RBs in this class - Travis Etienne of Clemson and Najee Harris of Alabama. He showed the ability to finish tackles and defeat blocks versus both of them.  He’ll be a key piece on the Cleveland defense for a long time.

In the third, the Browns took Auburn speedster Anthony Schwartz (2), who might be the fastest player in the NFL right now.  Schwartz actually has good hands, but he doesn’t look like a seasoned WR running routes.  He looks much more comfortable with the ball in his hands, and his world-class speed pops on film.  I generally don’t love expecting players to produce more in the NFL than they did in college, but Schwartz has untapped potential due to his speed.  I think he settles in as a situational bit player with flashes of home runs.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for the other divisions in the coming days.

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