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The NFL regular season is over, so fantasy football has largely come to an end. However, the playoffs still offer many opportunities for betting with higher stakes on the line. This year, the playoffs have been busier than ever with the expanded field of 14 teams, and now the race for the title is down to eight.
Before we get into my best bets for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, let's recap last week's action.
NOTE: All spreads and lines are from Draft Kings Sportsbook, which are constantly changing to reflect the shifts in money wagered. Remember, the sportsbook's job is to keep the spreads and lines at a number that will attract bets on both sides.
Wild Card Weekend Recap
Colts v. Bills - 3-2-1
The best bet was OVER 51 on the game total, and it finished at exactly 51 with a score of 24-27. That bet was a PUSH, which means the total/spread landed on the exact number and your wager is returned to you. Remember a push is not a loss, therefore it is a win in gambling. Despite the push on the best bet, we hit three out of five player prop bets with Jonathan Taylor and Josh Allen going over their rushing yards totals, and Stefon Diggs sailing over his receiving yards total. Unfortunately, Diggs and Nyheim Hines fell short of their reception totals.
Buccaneers v. Football Team - 1-1
The only bets we attacked in this game were the reception totals for J.D. McKissic and Logan Thomas. Thomas cashed easily, surpassing his total in the second quarter, but McKissic's prop was ruined by Taylor Heinicke starting at quarterback over Alex Smith. Smith loves to check down to his running backs, but Heinicke attacked the Buccaneers downfield and completed just two receptions to McKissic.
Ravens v. Titans - 3-3
The best bet was OVER 54.5 and this game went way under. The Titans failed to score 14 points for the first time this season, and the Ravens' total of 20 was tied for their second-lowest score of the season. Both defenses stepped up in this one. Despite the loss on the best bet, we hit three out of five player prop bets making us even on the game. Lamar Jackson could not be stopped on the ground, surpassing his rushing yards total before half-time, but his heavy usage in the running game ruined our rushing yards prop for J.K. Dobbins. Marquise Brown sailed over his receiving yards prop by 62 yards and A.J Brown cashed his over on receiving yards as he was the Titans' entire offense, but Corey Davis let us down as he failed to record a single catch.
Browns v. Steelers - 1-1
The best bet was Steelers -6 (insert Homer Simpson backing up into the bushes GIF here) and that was dead before the end of the first quarter. The Browns did not skip a beat without their head coach Kevin Stefanski and went on to rout the Steelers 48-37. The game was not as close as the score makes it seem. Fortunately, we nailed Diontae Johnson's receptions prop with plus odds as he hauled in 11 catches on Sunday night.
Teaser - 0-1
The Seahawks abysmal performance cost us this bet as they were -3 favorites heading into the game, and failed to cover the +3 tease, losing by 10.
Parlay - 0-1
The Seahawks' and Steelers' meltdowns ruined this encouraging bet.
Not the best first week as we finish 8-10-1 (42% win rate), but the Divisional Round has plenty of opportunities for us to bounce back. Let's get into the four-game slate of Divisional Weekend in the NFL to find the best bets.
Los Angeles Rams v. Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -6.5 at -115/ LAR +6.5 at -106
Over/under: 45.5
Moneyline: GB -315/ LAR +270
The Bet: OVER 45.5
This line is an overreaction to the Rams ferocious defense and the frigid temperatures that are expected in Lambeau Field on Saturday afternoon. I believe this game will finish in the '40s with a decent chance to jump into the '50s. The Packers finished as the highest-scoring team in the league this season, averaging 31.8 points per game. That number jumps to 32.8 if you average the scores of their last eight games.
I am not concerned about the Rams' #1 defense in opponent points allowed (18.5 per game) because the Packers have shredded top defenses all year, dropping 37 points on the Saints (21.1 PG), 31 points on the Colts (22.6 PG), 41 points on the Bears the first time, and 35 points on the Bears the second time (23.1 PG). The Rams, on the other hand, are averaging 23.3 points on the season and just dropped 30 points in their Wild Card upset over the Seahawks who only allowed 16 points per game to their opponents over the last eight weeks of the season.
The Rams are going to try and run the ball to drain the clock and limit the Packers' time of possession because Jared Goff is going to have to play in freezing temperatures two weeks removed from thumb surgery, and the Rams do not want to be in catch-up mode for this one. Head coach Sean McVay is an elite play-caller, and the Rams' rushing attack is one of the best in the league so I expect them to be successful doing it.
On the other side, the Packers are going to once again lean on the arm of Aaron Rodgers, who is playing at an MVP level right now. His connection with wide receiver Davante Adams is unparalleled in this league, and his ability to scan the entire field, utilize his other role players on offense, and find the open receiver is quite possibly the best we have ever seen. Further, All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald is banged-up, so he may not be his usual dominant self. Both teams are hitting their stride at the right time, but with Goff's thumb injury and Rodgers' otherworldly performance thus far, I like this game to finish with the Packers winning 27-20.
Player Props: Cam Akers over 70.5 rush yards -124; Cam Akers over 14.5 receiving yards -134; Cam Akers 0ver 2.5 receptions +155; Cam Akers 0ver 16.5 rushing attempts -125; Malcolm Brown over 12.5 rush yards -125; Davante Adams over 6.5 receptions -125; Davante Adams over 75.5 receiving yards -112; Davante Adams to score 1st TD +500; Packers to score first and win +104.
Needless to say, I love running back Cam Akers in this game. Akers is averaging 22.8 carries per game over his last five games, and the Rams are going to have to run the rock a ton if they want to keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands. Akers is averaging 4.3 yards per carry this season, so 17 carries at that average will get him over his rushing yards and rushing attempts props. As far as his receiving numbers go, he ran a route on over 60% of the Rams' drop-backs last week, and the Packers are allowing the third-most receiving yards to running backs this season. He should be able to hit 15 receiving yards on two receptions, though he could very well get there with just one.
I am also placing a small bet on Akers to go over 2.5 receptions at +155 odds because Goff's throwing deficiencies due to his surgically repaired thumb should lead to a bunch of dump-offs to Akers. After all, the Packers just gave up nine receptions for 63 yards to David Montgomery, but Akers only needs three receptions for 15 yards to hit both of his props. Malcolm Brown, on the other hand, could hit the over on his rushing yards on two carries. Darrell Henderson is not going to play so that just leaves Akers and Brown as the only guys in the backfield. Brown had nine carries last week and should see a similar number this week, plus he has hit this number in three straight games and every game this season that he had had at least four carries. So hammer that over.
I also love Davante Adams in this game despite the brutal matchup with All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. It is because of this brutal matchup that his numbers are so low, and I am not buying it. Adams has failed to hit seven receptions in only four games this season, one of which he left early due to injury, and one of which was his first game back from said injury. I also expect the Packers to move Adams around to get him off Ramsey's coverage as often as possible.
Additionally, Adams has the advantage in this matchup because Ramsey is a physical corner that presses at the line of scrimmage and sticks with receivers on their routes, but Adams specializes in getting separation off the line of scrimmage with his lightning-quick feet so cornerbacks never have an opportunity to track his movements. Before the cornerbacks can even get a hand on him, he is in the middle of his route and the ball is already in the air. Adams is averaging 98.1 yards per game and 11.9 yards per reception this season, so if he halls in the seven balls I expect him to, he should go over his yardage total as well.
Further, it is always worthwhile to place a small bet on Adams to score the first TD of the game at incredible +500 odds. He has done it six times this season, which is remarkable, and when the Packers get into the red zone, Rodgers looks to his most reliable weapon.
Lastly, since I think the Packers win this game, I am going to bet the Packers to score first and win the game at plus odds. The Packers' modus operandi this season has been to get out to a big lead in the first half and slow the game down in the second half, so I expect most of their points to come early on in this matchup.
Baltimore Ravens v. Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -2.5 at -115/ BAL +2.5 at -106
Over/under: 49.5
Moneyline: BUF -139/ BAL +113
The Bet: BUF ML -139
Las Vegas bookmakers nailed the betting line for this game with a spread teetering between +/- 2.5 and +/- 3, and a total of 49.5. If this game were being played in a dome I would lean to the over, but the elements should slow down these teams enough to finish slightly under. Either way, it is too close to call. I like the Bills in this one, but it should be a very close game so I prefer taking the money line instead of the spread.
The Bills are 8-1 at home this season, including last week's Wild Card game, losing only to the Chiefs in Week 6, but they are 6-0 when playing at home as a favorite. Fortunately for them, the Bills find themselves as a home favorite on Saturday night. Further, the Ravens are an impressive 7-2 on the road this season, including last week's Wild Card game, but they are 0-1 when playing on the road as the underdog. Unfortunately for them, the Ravens find themselves as the road underdog this week. Also in the Bills' favor is the weather, as frigid temperatures are expected with a low of 32º F, and a 68% chance of snow as of Friday morning. If it snows, the advantage swings even more in the Bills' direction as Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson told reporters this week that he has never played in the snow and he does not want to start on Saturday night. The main weather concern for the Bills is the wind, which is expected to reach 15mph because heavy wind usually leads to a heavy rushing attack and there is no debate that the Ravens are the superior rushing team.
Josh Allen has taken this Bills team to heights not seen for three decades, and it feels like the momentum is entirely on their side. Unfortunately for the Ravens, there are no weaknesses on the Bills' offense and it is firing on all cylinders at the perfect time. They have an elite wide receiver in Diggs and three very talented supporting receivers in Cole Beasley, John Brown, and the explosive rookie Gabriel Davis. Allen has shown tremendous growth this year as a passer and is still just as deadly with his legs, so the Ravens are going to have a hard time limiting his production.
On the flip side, the Ravens have to get out to an early lead if they want to come away with a victory because they are one of the worst teams in the league at coming from behind in the second half under Lamar Jackson, and Jackson is still quite limited as a passer. He prefers to operate in the middle of the field, and defenses that have forced him to throw outside have had success in stopping him. Fortunately for him, the Bills Defense is the most vulnerable in the middle of the field.
The bottom line for me is that the Ravens have one game plan to win this game, by running it a ton with Jackson and J.K. Dobbins and getting out to an early lead. The Bills, however, can gash the Ravens on the ground or threw the air, and have the quarterback and the firepower to come back from a big deficit in a short amount of time. I like the Bills to win 28-26 after a failed two-point conversion by the Ravens to tie the game.
Player Props: Lamar Jackson over 74.5 rush yards -112; Lamar Jackson under 196.5 yards -112; Mark Andrews over 4.5 receptions -134; Josh Allen over 38.5 rush yards -134; Josh Allen anytime TD +125; Devin Singletary over 42.5 rush yards -112; Devin Singletary over 2.5 receptions -167.
Jackson needs to run early and often if the Ravens have a shot at winning this game, and since he has returned from the Reserve/COVID list in Week 13, he has hit this total in every game but one and is averaging 94.3 rush yards per game. The Bills are also extremely susceptible to the run, finishing 17th in rush yards allowed. I am not a fan of Jackson's passing yards prop, however, because his increased rushing volume and significantly inhibited his passing production. As you can probably tell, I hate betting unders because it is no fun rooting for no production, but I am going to make an exception for this one. Over his last nine games, Jackson has gone over this total twice, and since his return in Week 13, he has only surpassed this total once, which came in a 40-14 bludgeoning of the Jaguars.
I am also a huge fan of Andrews this week because the Bills have been awful at stopping tight ends, allowing the most receptions and second-most yards to the position this season. Andrews has also surpassed this total in five out of the last seven games, and he should lead the team in targets this week with cornerback Tre'Davious White expected to shadow wide receiver Marquise Brown.
As for the Bills, I am betting the over on Allen's rushing yards prop in every game from here on out. Running back Zack Moss is injured and out for the season with an ankle injury, so I expect a few more designed runs for Allen, especially in the red zone. Further, the Ravens blitz the quarterback more than any other team (44.1%) which should open plenty of holes for Allen when the pocket collapses. He should also be good for at least one rushing touchdown in this contest because in the absence of Moss, they have a much better shot at punching it in for a touchdown behind 6'5" Allen over 5'7" Singletary when they get near the goal line.
Speaking of Singletary, his lines are way too low. He is averaging 4.4 yards per carry this season and his rushing yards prop is only a meager 42.5 yards. The absence of Moss should lead to Singletary seeing between 12-15 carries and five to seven targets, making his rush yards prop his absolute floor and his 2.5 receptions prop a near-lock to go over. Last week, Moss and Singletary caught seven balls between them, and this week Singletary has this backfield all to himself.
Cleveland Browns v. Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -10 at -110/ CLV +10 at -110
Over/under: 57.5
Moneyline: KC -500/ CLV +400
Best Bet: Jarvis Landry OVER 4.5 receptions -155
I am avoiding the spread and the total in this game like the plague. The Chiefs are obviously a heavy favorite, but the Browns are cooking with gas right now and I think 10 points is too many to lay. That being said, the Browns losing by three scores is also firmly within the range of outcomes for this game, so the wise move is to avoid the spread entirely. The same goes for the total. 57.5 is the highest total on the slate and begs for bettors to take the under. However, the public keeps betting the over, and we could see this game finish in the '70s if both defenses stay home. Therefore, I am only betting player props in this game and my favorite is Jarvis Landry's receptions.
Landry is quarterback Baker Mayfield's favorite target and he has had at least five receptions in six straight games. Last week, Landry finished with five receptions in a game the Browns were in full control of the entire time. This week, the Browns are going to have to throw early and often in order to keep up with the Chiefs, and that means even more volume for Landry who has seen at least eight targets in five of his last six games. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes over this total before halftime. This could be a 10-catch game for Landry.
Other Player Props: Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 TDs -125; Patrick Mahomes over 320.5 pass yards -118; Tyreek Hill over 81.5 receiving yards; Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions +122; Tyreek Hill to score 1st TD +500; Baker Mayfield over 1.5 TDs -134; Austin Hooper over 3.5 receptions -177; Kareem Hunt anytime TD +145.
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes average 39.4 points per game when they are coming off a bye, including the playoffs. There is no doubt that Mahomes is going to light it up on Sunday, and this line is 35 yards below his average over his last eight games (355 PG). The Chiefs running game has been stagnant so you can safely expect them to lean on the golden arm of Mahomes to get them to another Super Bowl. I like him for 360 yards and three touchdowns this weekend.
Next, if we love Mahomes, we have to love Tyreek Hill against this porous secondary. The Browns are the fourth-worst defense at defending deep passing (20+ yards downfield) and Hill is a deep-ball specialist. Mahomes will take a few deep shots to Hill and he just needs to catch one to feel safe about him going over 81.5 receiving yards. I also love Hill's reception prop this week at +122 odds. He has failed to go over both of these totals in his last four games, but he faced A.J. Bouye, Xavien Howard, and Marshon Lattimore in three of them. I expect the Chiefs to try and get Hill back on track for another Super Bowl Run and it starts this week against a pitiful Cleveland secondary.
It's also worth placing a small wager on Hill to score the first touchdown of the game at +500 odds. Don't be surprised if Mahomes takes a deep shot to Hill to open the game and they connect.
On the Browns' side, all the love this week goes to the passing game. Mayfield is going to have to have an epic performance if the Browns want to compete in this one, and two touchdowns should be his absolute floor. Plus, knowing the competitive fire and swagger that he plays with I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to go shot for shot with Mahomes in this one. As a result, tight end Austin Hooper should also see a ton of volume in this matchup, and his prop of 3.5 receptions has gone over in four straight games. I would have made Hooper the best bet, but the -177 odds are not very enticing. But make no mistake about it, this line should cash before halftime.
The last prop that I am betting on Browns' side of the ball is Kareem Hunt to score a touchdown. The Browns love to use Hunt at the goal line, and there is the added incentive to get Hunt in the endzone against his former team who, in his mind, gave up on him. The Browns need to score a ton of points if they have any hopes of winning this game, and Hunt has scored in three of his last five games. When you add in the revenge game narrative, I love his chances of hitting pay-dirt on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -3.5 at -104/ TB +3.5 at -117
Over/under: 52
Moneyline: NO -180/ TB +155
No Best Bet.
Sunday night's divisional affair is too close to call. As a result, I do not see any lines that I'm comfortable betting. The Saints swept the Buccaneers in the regular season, but this team is playing lights out over the last few weeks and Brady in the playoffs is a different beast entirely. Vegas has nailed the spread as the Saints are favored but, would have to win by more than a field goal to cover. The total is also perfectly set as this should be a high-scoring affair, but both teams have a top-five defense which could limit this game from becoming a shootout.
I honestly have no clue which way this one will go, so we don't make a bet. If forced to choose, I would lean toward the Saints to win because this is Drew Brees' swan song, but you can never count out Brady in the postseason.
Player Props: Jared Cook over 2.5 receptions -143; Chris Godwin over 64.5 receiving yards -121;
The Buccaneers were the best defense at stopping the run, only allowing 80.6 yards per game on the ground, so I expect the Saints to be a little more pass-happy in this one to try and open up some holes for Alvin Kamara. Further, Taysom Hill and Latavius Murray are expected to be out which takes away a handful of designed runs and keeps the ball in Brees' hands. Jared Cook's reception total is a meager 2.5 and I love the over. He has surpassed this number in five of his last six games, and he has seen at least five targets in four of them. Michael Thomas should be double-teamed and Kamara used predominantly in the run game without Murray, so I expect Cook to be a favorite target of Brees, especially on third down and in the red zone. Three receptions is such a small threshold to hit that I'm going to bet he gets there.
The other prop I like is Chris Godwin to go over 64.5 receiving yards. Godwin has had at least seven targets in his last three games and he has caught five balls each time. Last week, Godwin saw 12 targets and I think that volume could carry over into this week with Mike Evans still not 100% and matched up on Marshon Lattimore, who has routinely limited Evans' production when they have faced off. Normally, I would be all over his receptions total, but it sits at 5.5 which is too close to call because it feels like he will have between five and seven catches. Therefore, we are going to bet his receiving line.
When you look at Godwin's season, he is averaging 12.9 yards per reception and 5.4 receptions per game, which comes out to an average line of five receptions for 64.5 yards. Now take a look at his lines again. Funny how that works huh? However, if you dig a little deeper, Godwin has averaged 19.7 yards per reception over his last three games. So right around the time the offense started clicking, Godwin became far more productive with his catches and averaged 98.5 yards per game. Now his line of 64.5 receiving yards seems pretty low, doesn't it? Add in the fact of Evans' injury and bad matchup, the unknown status of Ronald Jones II, and the Saints top-four defense at stopping the run, Brady is going to have to win with his arm, and Godwin should be his favorite target.
Teaser and Parlays
7-Point Teaser: Rams +13.5, Browns +17 -116
When the lines seem too high, it begs for a teaser on the underdogs. The Rams Defense is elite and it very unlikely that that lose by two touchdowns. Some even think they can win the game outright. On the flip side, the Browns are averaging 30 points per game over their last eight, and the Chiefs are allowing 26 points per game to opponents over the same stretch. The Browns offense is playing too good right now to lose by more than two touchdowns and a field-goal. I will take that spread all day.
Parlay: Bills ML/Saints ML +170
Player Prop Parlay: Malcolm Brown over 12.5 rush yards; Devin Singletary over 2.5 receptions; Austin Hooper over 3.5 receptions; Jared Cook over 2.5 receptions +660
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