X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

2020 NFL Early-Draft Exploits: VOA vs. ADP for Tight Ends

darren waller fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

Antonio Losada uses his Value Over Average player metrics to find bargains and ripoffs in the early-draft days of the 2020 NFL preseason at the tight end position.

Recently, I introduced three metrics for fantasy football: Value Over Starter (VOS), Value Over Average (VOA), and Value Over Replacement (VOR). The idea behind the concept was simple. Take position scarcity into account and calculate how each player overperformed or underperformed when compared to those with starter/average/replacement value at that concrete position. With that in mind, it is easy to identify who provides the most value at each skill position, how the players pertaining to it rank in similar tiers, and who should be drafted earlier based on how many more points he provides compared to his peers.

Now that the 2019 season is well behind us and we're already locked into what is about to come in just a few months time, it is time to check the drafts and ADP values before the NFL draft to see who is going under the radar and who is being massively overvalued this time of the year.

I already went through the data in another column as an introduction to the positional breakdown I'll be doing next. Using VOA+ and ADP, I will try to identify overvalued players at each position and picks going under the radar worth taking later in drafts given their performance levels when compared to the average starter at the position. Let's get it going.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Overvalued/Undervalued Tight Ends by VOA/ADP

With the data at hand (that is, the 2019 VOA+ and 2020 ADP values of each player as of this writing), it is time to try and find some players going off the board way earlier than they should considering the value they provide compared to other players at the position. In order to do so in an objective way, I have made a simple calculation: VOA squared to ADP. Those with higher values would carry the best value/price and those with the lowest the worst. Imagine two players with a VOA+ of 200 going first overall and 100th overall. You'd definitely want the second one (same production, 100 times cheaper), and in fact, his value would be much higher (200^100 against 200^1) than that of the first player.

First of all, here is how both VOA+ and ADP compare for players at the tight end position.

As you can see, only 10 tight ends yielded more than average starter production in 2019. That is the fewest number of players at any of the four offensive positions (quarterback was second with 11). That means that in 12-team leagues, two fantasy owners had to start a below-average producer weekly, which in turn means that this position has a high scarcity that makes it worth taking a surefire player early in redraft leagues.

Right now, the only TE going off the board inside the first two rounds is George Kittle (ADP 24.0), yet he produced fewer fantasy points and played to a lesser level than No. 1 in VOA+ last season (177.4) Travis Kelce who currently has a 25.8 ADP. Even at their high prices, both of them are worth taking early.

 

ADP Values

Going a little bit down the ADP leaderboard (to the right of the chart above) we find the first market inefficiencies:

  • All of Zach Ertz (153), Mark Andrews (147), and Darren Waller (157) had very similar VOA+ marks last year to that of George Kittle, but none of them is being drafted inside the first four rounds. You can get a similarly productive player to Kittle as many as 30 positions (or two and a half rounds) later in the draft!
  • Don't get lost in that trio, though, and move your eyes down the plot. Yes, that red cross in there labeled "Evan Engram" has a 49.3 ADP while he only posted a 74 VOA+ last season. Surely, he played in just eight games and VOA+ is a counting stat, but the risk is not worth taking given the players at the position going later and their proved levels of production.
  • Austin Hooper didn't have his best season in 2019 but was one of the best players at the position even missing three games, and is now part of a more loaded offense. His value/price is not as high as that of the other three players highlighted above, but he's definitely worth taking at his ADP.

Further down the ADP leaderboard, we get to the actual bargains at the position:

  • Both Jared Cook and Tyler Higbee played to better levels than both Hunter Henry and Dallas Goedert, yet they're being drafted way later, already inside the 11th round of early drafts. If you pass on drafting your starting tight end early or straight punt on the position, consider adding any of them really late or through waivers once the draft is completed.
  • The opposite goes for Noah Fant, O.J. Howard, T.J. Hockenson, Vance McDonald, and most of all David Njoku. Even while playing to horrific levels compared to the average TE (none of them even reached an 80 VOA+ in 2019) all are being drafted inside the first ten rounds of drafts. All of them have fantasy reasons to improve next season (Fant and Hockenson becoming sophomores, Howard playing under Tom Brady, Njoku... nothing to see here) but those are subjective what-ifs you should avoid.

Finally, here are the top three players to target and to avoid at the tight end position given their VOA+ marks from 2019 and their current ADPs:

  • Top-3 TEs to Target: Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz.
  • Top-3 TEs to Avoid: Noah Fant, Evan Engram, David Njoku

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS


Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday

Bears Draft Luther Burden In Round 2
Buffalo Bills

Bills Move Up To 41st Pick In Trade With Bears

Patriots Add TreVeyon Henderson To The Backfield At Pick No. 38
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Acquire 37th Pick From Raiders, Draft Jonah Savaiinaea

Browns Add Quinshon Judkins To Backfield With 36th Pick
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Acquire 35th Pick From Titans, Select Nick Emmanwori

Texans Select Jayden Higgins 34th Overall
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3

Tyler Shough Could Come Off The Board Before Shedeur Sanders
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Isaiah Spiller

Raiders Waive Isaiah Spiller
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
NFL

Several Teams Trying To Trade Up Early In Round 2

Bhayshul Tuten Could Be A Third-Round Pick
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Cleveland Browns

Browns Fielding Calls For First Pick In Round 2
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
George Pickens

Steelers Receiving Calls About George Pickens
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Ryan Weathers

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Colby Thomas

Heating Up At Triple-A
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Don't Feel Forced To Draft A Running Back
Emmanuel Rodriguez

Has Quiet Start To 2025
Jeff McNeil

Hitting Eighth In Season Debut
Brandon Sproat

Coughs Up Six Earned Runs In Latest Start
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez To Start Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF