2020 NFL Draft Review - NFC South

If you missed the first three installments of this 2020 NFL Draft review series, you can read the AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North.

Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust.

Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level.  I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. Nevertheless, this is a fun exercise and gives us a chance to review how each team approached the draft.

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Overview

Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.

Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.

Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.

As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love (more on that here). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.

So here is the first installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow (5). Here's how the picks break down:

5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position.
4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position.
3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production.
2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions.
1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.

Next up, the NFC South.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers began the Matt Rhule era by using all seven picks on defense.  More specifically, they focused on the defensive line and secondary.  While I applaud the thinking, I was lower on most of their picks than the consensus.

Derrick Brown (3) will likely be a good pro.  Part of my critical evaluation of him has to do with his position.  Even the greatest interior player of our generation, Aaron Donald, has found himself stuck on some bad defenses.  I know it’s a team game, and I know he’s still impactful and dominant, but it’s fair to question the value of all non-Donald interior defensive linemen.  As a player, Brown flashes dominance in terms of strength and power.  He can bull rush with anyone, and has enough quicks to penetrate for tackles for loss.  The pile-drive versus UCF displayed his power (gif below).

However, some of his positive plays just don’t translate.  He went up against weaker interior offensive linemen, many of whom won’t sniff the NFL.  When he enters the league, he’ll be up against former tackles and the best guards in the world.  Some of his splash plays like fumble returns and hustle sacks, just aren’t transferable to the next level and only slightly help his evaluation.  Also, his stoutness against doubles is usually highlighted as a strength, yet there are some reps against Oregon and Alabama where he is dominated.  There’s a chance he becomes more consistent with leverage and technique and develops into an All-Pro.  I’ll bet he settles in as a quality nose tackle without crazy production.

Yetur Gross-Matos (3) can be a starting defensive end right away.  His strength is setting the edge and playing the run.  He shows the ability to anchor and use his hands to take on blocks, “knockback and peak” to play his gap.  As a pass rusher, he shows quick inside moves, including a rip that took advantage of slower tackles.  Although he played right end at Penn State, he’s simply not much of an edge rusher, and more of an edge setter, inside-move specialist and pure football player.  There’s some upside, but he’s more linear than quick and bendy, and had too many hustle sacks for me to get excited.  He’ll settle in as an average starter.

Jeremy Chinn (2) had some top-50 hype but ultimately went last of all the second-tier safeties.  I thought McKinney, Delpit, Dugger, Davis, and Winfield were all better.  Chinn has the athletic profile of an NFL special teamer, but nothing on his film suggests he’ll make a smooth transition to safety at the pro level.  The Panthers initially listed him as a linebacker, which points to him starting his career as a Deone Buchannon-like sub-package player.  I saw him unable to get out to the No. 1 receiver from center field then let an FCS receiver get behind him.

If they try him at safety, he’s going to let people get behind him.  His film shows a solid football player and pretty good tackler, but his eyes are weird, he isn’t super physical (kind of picks his spots), and generally looked like he fit in well at the FCS level.  You want those guys to leave no doubt that they don’t belong on the same field as those players.  Chinn’s best plays included blitzing from deep and spearing a quarterback on a free run - something that simply does not translate to the NFL.

As for the rest of their draft, I was low on Troy Pride Jr. (1), and nothing else stood out.  The Panthers may have improved their defense, but their 2020 season will come down to the quarterback position.  It would not shock me to see P.J. Walker take the starting gig away from Teddy Bridgewater at some point.  Another somewhat surprising guess - Christian McCaffrey will actually live up to his contract.  His consistent durability is uncommon, and he’s one of the greatest receiving backs in NFL history.  Don’t compare him to Todd Gurley, who had degenerative knees.  I hate being a running back apologist.  I believe in math, I swear.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints always draft well.  Part of the reason their draft picks turn into good players is that they coach and develop players as well as any team in the league.  They only had four picks and used three of them on prospects with a fairly high floor.

When creating mock drafts, one of the first places I look at is the offensive line.  Generally, a win-now team will not spend an early pick on an offensive lineman unless there is an open starting spot.  Based on contract situations and PFF grades, the Saints simply didn’t need an interior offensive lineman for 2020.  While I am a staunch proponent of BPA (Best Player Available), even I was surprised by the selection of Cesar Ruiz (3).  The plan is for him to compete with PFF’s 8^th-best guard in Larry Warford for a starting job.  Teams don’t draft for just next year, so adding Ruiz makes sense in the long term.  However, it’s fair to question the move given that this will be Drew Brees’ last dance and they are built to win now.

As for the actual player, Ruiz was my top-ranked interior lineman and 31^st-ranked player on my board.  My final note is that he’s solid but an unlikely all-pro.  He started the Iowa game quite confused but figured it out as the game went along.  He is stout in pass pro, and does a great job getting up to linebackers on zone runs.  Overall, he’s not a very explosive or powerful player, but he does his job and stays stout and square when he has to.  I expect a solid starter.

Zack Baun (2) falling to 74 is interesting.  If Baun went to a less-successful organization, I may have been tempted to predict him to be a bust.  His tape against the Michigan State tackles is rough.  He’s kept at bay by his length with a one-arm punch forcing him to lose his balance.  He was taken care of by the tight end, and generally didn’t get much going against Michigan State in terms of translatable traits.  Baun is good in coverage and overall solid football player, but he simply doesn’t have the traits or translatable skills of a pro edge rusher.  The Nebraska quarterback hates him, as Baun dominated that game with his athleticism.  There’s a chance he’s schemed into making plays in space, perhaps as an off-ball linebacker at times.  I won’t endorse him as more than a situational and special teams player - which isn’t awful value for the 74^th overall pick.

Adam Trautman (2) was my second-ranked tight end and 96^th-ranked player on my board.  This tight end class was terrible, but Trautman has some redeeming qualities that make him worth a late pick.  Trautman didn’t belong in the FCS and has the smooth, tough-guy demeanor that plays in the league.  He dismisses and mosses quality FCS players routinely on film.    He could not be walking into a better situation, but the speed change might be too much for him.

The Saints may have wanted Jordan Love given how aggressive the Packers were to move up for him.  With Jameis Winston in the organization, Sean Payton will get a year to groom him, while also keeping an eye out for 2021 talent.  New Orleans has the roster to contend for a Super Bowl.  I like Margus Hunt to be a surprise contributor.

Atlanta Falcons

Everyone thought the Falcons would move up for an impact defensive player but instead chose to keep their picks.  I do not believe in the word “reach,” because I believe teams should take their guy regardless of what others think.  However, they probably could have traded down a bit before selecting A.J. Terrell in the first round.

A.J. Terrell (2) was my 8^th-ranked cornerback, so I was not a fan of this pick.  The Terrell discussion usually starts with the LSU game, fair or not.  J’Marr Chase may be one of the best receivers in the NFL in a few years, and he dominated the matchup.  Terrell has above-average feet, but his eyes and hands are below-average.  He grabs in trail technique, and his hands are typically all over the place - I can see the flags in his future.  He gets his head around nicely, but lacks physicality and strength, especially at the catch-point.  His height-weight-speed mix is that of a solid pro corner, but the film I saw had a lot of flaws.

Marlon Davidson (2) had interesting film.  At Auburn, he played both standing up and with his hand in the dirt, depending on situation and gameplan.  As a 6-3, 303-pound player, it was kind of hilarious to see him standing up so much.  Davidson has heavy legs and the body of an interior defensive lineman (kind of fat).  He had no chance against speedy running backs in space, and was way too slow-footed to generate much of an edge rush against quality tackles.  Against Oregon, he was so ineffective they moved him inside.  He struggled to post versus tackle-guard doubles, and was the opposite of twitchy.  A lot of his sacks simply won’t play in league - versus Kent State and hustle sacks.  Davidson isn’t a bad football player, and fits best in the NFL as a defensive end, but there is a ton of projection here.  Traits-wise, I suppose he has decent strength and length.  He was my 88^th-ranked player.

I was extremely high on Matt Hennessy (4).  Learning from Alex Mack in Atlanta’s offense is a great landing spot.  Hennessy has thin ankles and is a little jittery, but he moves well enough to be stout in pass pro.  He has good enough mobility and excellent balance - the most underrated trait in scouting.   He places his hands well and does a great job on initial contact.  His functional strength is his only weakness.  If he puts the time in the weight room, he can be an All-Pro.

Dan Quinn is on the hot seat and the Matt Ryan window may be closing soon.  The Falcons hope they helped re-tool the defense a bit with this draft, but are likely looking up at New Orleans and now Tampa Bay in the NFC South.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bruce Arians actually lets his coaches spend time with their families, so I love him.  He’s worked with Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and now gets a chance with the great Tom Brady.  The Bucs came into the draft needing a right tackle, and wasted no time, using their first pick on arguably the best right tackle in this class.

Tristan Wirfs (3) has all the necessary tools to develop into a quality pro tackle.  He’s incredibly athletic for his size, somehow blazing a 4.85 40 at 320 pounds.  However, the film did not always show the most mobile player.  Against Michigan, Wirfs looked awkward and off-balance way too frequently.  He showed the ability to mirror well, but was jolted back too much.  He’s a little slow in reaction time, and struggled with quickness in the run game.  I went back to Iowa to watch an edge opponent, and was far more impressed the second time around.  His technique needs work, but his size-to-traits ratio is special.  Reportedly a weight-room monster, I really wonder why his film showed so many flaws.  I’m skeptical he’ll be more than an average pro.

Antoine Winfield Jr. (3) is a try-hard.  That can be a good or a bad thing.  It shows his competitive spirit and work ethic, but might suggest he’s reached his ceiling as a football player.  If he has maxed out his ability, he’s going to struggle a bit in the NFL.  In the box, the Iowa tight end took care of him quite easily.  He got run over by a quarterback, and some of his submarine tackles simply might not play in the league.  He’s a bit conservative from deep, taking high angles and giving up yards on chunk plays.  His best skill is man coverage, which is an extremely useful trait for a defensive coordinator to take advantage of.  However, why didn’t he play corner, and why was he a three-star recruit?  As a stud college producer at safety, his transition is most fragile due to a long injury history.  At his size, it’s fair to wonder if he can stay healthy.  Earl Thomas is known for missile tackles, but he’s missed his fair share as well over the years.  Still, seven picks and man coverage skills make him worth a high pick.  I’m fascinated to see how his career unfolds - I just hope he can stay on the field.

Mid-round running backs are tough to scout.  I noted Ke’Shawn Vaughn (2) as “fast enough but not much more than a jag.”  And “can catch and hit it if it’s there,” ultimately labeling him as a 6^th-round pick.  I learned my lesson long ago to stick to my initial evaluation.  I had huge question marks about Kevin White and Corey Davis but succumbed to groupthink and gave them positive predictions.  After the high selection, I went back to Vaughn’s film and it confirmed my initial thoughts.  He’s more straight-line and tight than you want, and even though his speed and hands play, a lot of his stuff doesn’t translate.   He made a hobbled Grant Delpit miss, but his LSU film doesn’t offer much more in terms of translatable traits, besides speed and hands, which aren’t separators (except of course for a Brady back like Kevin Faulk and James White...).

Bucs fans hate me so far, but they’ll be pleased to hear I am a Tyler Johnson (4) truther.  Johnson has all the traits of a quality NFL receiver, including unreal ball skills and terrific suddenness.  His performance against Auburn was awesome, as he displayed his amazing hands and natural confidence en route to 12 receptions, 204 yards, and two touchdowns, including this thing (gif below).  He’s a special receiver and fell apparently due to character concerns.  I expect the culture in Tampa to help him become their No. 3 option this year.

The Buccaneers are fascinating.  They have the talent on paper to contend for a Super Bowl, but the Saints stand in their way.  With for-some-reason seven playoff spots, I expect them to make it to the dance.  Antoine Winfield Jr.’s first-year impact is one of the most important rookie storylines this year.  Vita Vea will anchor a tough run defense, so if Winfield can improve the secondary, Brady may have a shot at another ring.

Thanks for reading.  Stay tuned for the final three divisions in the coming days.

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