2020 NFL Draft Review: NFC North

Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this 2020 NFL Draft review series is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust.

Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level.  I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. I still write this long prediction article for three reasons:

1 - No one else does it.
2 - It’s more interesting than draft grades.
3 - It’s fun to try to get things right.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Overview

Like NFL teams, I’m going to get things wrong. The greatest football mind in history drafted Ryan Mallett and Chad Jackson. I also like to argue against the consensus when my evaluations allow me to. That has gotten me in trouble with some unpopular predictions that turned out to be hilariously wrong. On the flip side, I don’t think anyone else predicted Lamar Jackson would be the best quarterback of his draft class. All of my picks are rooted in comprehensive film study and a mathematical understanding of what drafts typically produce (spoiler: draft grades are unrealistically generous).

Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.

Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.

Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.

As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love (more on that later). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.

So here is the first installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow (5). Here's how the picks break down:

5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position.
4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position.
3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production.
2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions.
1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.

First up, the NFC North.

Green Bay Packers

Everyone is talking about the Packers, and rightfully so.  They traded up for a quarterback and with a need at receiver, didn’t select any in arguably the best receiver class of all time.  They are being widely mocked by football fans everywhere for bungling the draft and quite probably infuriating Aaron Rodgers.  The Packers went to the NFC Championship game last year and Rodgers is 36 years old, so they are as win-now as it gets.  So how can anyone defend them trading up for a quarterback?  Very easily, actually.

If your stance is “I don’t believe Jordan Love will become a franchise quarterback” then you have every right to make fun of the pick. What I find humorous is how many people seem so sure Love will fail.  Surely each person meme-ing and gif-ing on twitter has studied Love's film, right?  Because to be clear - if Jordan Love develops into a franchise quarterback at any point for the Packers, then this pick will have been one of the best in the entire draft.  It’s only fair to criticize the pick because of conviction about the player.  It makes no sense to argue they don’t need a quarterback.  There is nothing more valuable than a franchise quarterback, and again, Rodgers is 36.

So I don’t believe the Packers should be the laughingstock of the league for picking Love.  It is fascinating that the overwhelming sentiment is that they screwed this up, which is funny considering how difficult and unpredictable the draft is.  Jordan Love has tremendous potential, and the Packers took a shot that could result in 10+ years of being set at the most important position.

Having actually done the work on him, I begrudgingly have to agree with the negative feedback because I do not believe Jordan Love (2) will develop into a franchise quarterback.  Love has Mahomes-ish arm talent and athleticism.  He has a smooth delivery, good pocket awareness, and throws well on the move.  The physical traits are there, as few human beings in the world can deliver missiles with a flick-of-the-wrist like Love.  He also processes information quickly enough and shows flashes of progressing through reads quite well.  It is reasonable for a team to watch his film and project that he can make NFL-level reads and decisions.  When you mix that with his arm talent, all it takes is an interview that sells his intelligence (27 on the Wonderlic) and football character for a team to fall in love.

However, there is one glaring issue in his game that I just can’t get over - his ball placement.  He too frequently misplaces easy throws - flats, bubbles, slants, stick routes - including a bad pick on a corner route against Wake Forest.  He also ended that game with a pick, unable to place the ball over a linebacker.  These missed placements re-occur frequently on his 2019 tape.  His accuracy (think a pitcher’s control) isn’t poor, especially when his feet are right.  But his placement (think a pitcher’s command) is substandard.

For what it’s worth, I had similar concerns with Patrick Mahomes’ inconsistent ball placement coming out.  I just didn’t know he was a football savant.  I don’t think Love is Mahomes but his traits-profile and style are similar.  Any discussion about Love should include the disparity between his 2018 performance (64% comp. 9.4 YPA, 32/6 TD/INT) and 2019 performance (61.9% comp., 6.4 YPA, 20/17 TD/INT).  Losing coaches and talent around him is the explanation, but the contrast is quite jarring.  If I loved Love, I’d be happily defending this pick on all corners of the internet.  I just don’t love Love.  I wonder how fans would have reacted if this pick was Tua instead....

In the second round, the Packers passed on a myriad of talented receivers for a bruising two-down workhorse back.  This pick is less defensible than taking a quarterback, but I try to understand what teams are thinking.  Clearly, they believe A.J. Dillon can be an impact player.  I had Dillon ranked 93^rd overall, but I do recognize his skillset as valuable.  He's a 97^th percentile SPARQ athlete with home run speed (4.53 40) at 247 pounds.  He has excellent vision and can be punishing in a four-minute offense.  Fantasy players want Aaron Jones to play most snaps and get 25 touches a game, but it makes sense to keep him fresher, use him on passing downs, and sit the plodding Jamaal Williams on the bench.

This picks further fortifies a strong position group, an underrated strategy in the draft.  The arguments against this pick are valid - positional value, lack of passing-game help, other Green Bay needs.  However, it’s also fair to recognize A.J. Dillon (3) as an impact back.  It wasn’t my favorite pick, but to me, the draft is more about player than position, and Dillon will be a solid pro.  I’m also not fully on board with the vocal analytics folks who think running backs aren’t valuable at all.

In the third, the Packers again surprised by adding an H-back/tight end in Josiah Deguara (1) from Cincinnati.  After investing a top-75 pick in Jace Sternberger last year, the Packers again looked towards the future.  Deguara likely won’t do much in 2020, but this pick sets up their 12-personnel for the Jordan Love era.  Deguara can block a bit and catches the ball well, but he wasn’t even in my top 200 players in a poor tight end class.  Draft slot has me thinking a bit, but I’m going to pick him to be one of many non-factors in this draft.

The Packers did nothing to help Aaron Rodgers at wide receiver in a loaded receiver class.  They also failed to improve a run defense that was shredded in the NFC Championship game by San Francisco.  Instead, they chose to address their 2022 offense.  I agree with the overall sentiment that this was a poor draft, but only because I predict Jordan Love will fail.  If he lives up to his potential, then this draft class will go down as one of the best.

Minnesota Vikings

Manipulating the draft to make 16 picks was brilliant.  There is so much uncertainty for the upcoming season so the Vikings opted to secure who they wanted rather than relying on the rat-race of remote undrafted free agency.  Depending on when the season begins, adding veteran free agents and having try-outs may be more challenging this year.  Minnesota made the smart move in adding 16 rookies that they can bring up to speed on their terms through potential virtual practices and meetings.  Making 16 picks is also great work because of statistics.  The vast majority of draft picks end up being worthless.  Simply, the more you make, the better your chances of finding contributors.

I ranked Justin Jefferson (2) lower than most (9^th-ranked receiver in this class), so I don’t view this pick as some outrageous value.  I had Jefferson ranked as the 32^nd-best player in this class, so I wouldn’t even call it a great pick.   Jefferson has the traits of a very good pro receiver, but I fear he may be more Jordan Matthews than people realize.  I consistently ranked Jalen Reagor over Jefferson, and knowing the Eagles did as well leads me to believe I may have been on to something.

Jefferson’s film was dominating at times, but scouting players is about projecting what translates rather than evaluating college performance.  LSU put Jefferson in the slot and let him work the middle of the field on RPOs and embarrass less-athletic safeties, linebackers, and nickels on “be-better” routes like slot fades.  He has good hands and athletic traits, but I don’t see his film translating into a dominant pro.  His route-running needs work, reaching too much on breaks, and there’s little evidence of him beating press on the outside.  50% of all picks from 21-32 result in a replacement-level player or bust.  I’ll go out on a limb and predict a guy I wasn’t super high on underperforms at the next level.

Jeff Gladney (3) was my third-ranked corner and 30^th-ranked player overall.  He’s feisty with quick feet and plays with tremendous competitiveness and physicality.  I wrote “Jalen Ramsey” in my notes before looking up his measurables (5-10, 191).  I obviously think he plays much bigger than his size.  Or I need new glasses.  I went back for a second look on Gladney and wasn’t nearly as impressed.  He’s a little clumsy and not much of a technician.  He has success just being a twitchy athlete and aggressive, which isn’t a great sign as he’ll lose that advantage in the NFL.  He also dropped the ball before the end zone after a pick-six a la DeSean Jackson.  Still, I believe he’ll be a solid starter and go to exactly two pro bowls.

Ezra Cleveland (3) was a steal.  He’s glorious in pass protection and has unreal athleticism for his size.  His ability to mirror is unmatched in this class.  Cleveland’s biggest weakness is his lack of strength, but with the right strength program he can improve there.  One of my favorite plays was watching him chase down and tackle a defender after an interception.

Cameron Dantzler (2) was my 8^th-ranked corner.  He ran a 4.64 at just 188 pounds and has messy hands, but I liked his film otherwise.  He’s competitive and makes plays, including sacking both Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa for some reason.  He’s thin but doesn’t care.  I just don’t know if he has the recovery speed to start and there were too many missed tackles on film.

James Lynch (3) was a legitimate steal in the fourth round.  He dominated overmatched Big 12 tackles but has the type of strength and power that plays in the league.  He can contribute at five-technique as he puts on more weight.  He’s obviously not a 10-plus sack-a-year type at the pro level.  Troy Dye (2) wore a club in the Pac-12 championship game and is physical.  He’s just not that explosive and is more try-hard than traits-rich.

The Vikings deserve a lot of credit for this haul.  It will be extremely interesting to go back and look at how many of their 16 picks are still there in two years.

Chicago Bears

The biggest Bears news of the weekend was the report that they won't pick up Mitch Trubisky's fifth-year option.  Chicago made two franchise-defining moves that used up a ton of draft capital over a four-year span - trading up for Trubisky and trading for Khalil Mack.  Mack came back down to earth after a ferocious first year in Chicago, but should be a force for a couple more seasons.  Trubisky, on the other hand, has regressed and given the team very little confidence.  He'll compete with the enigmatic Nick Foles, who is as bipolar as players get.

The NFL Draft is the most important roster-building day on the NFL calendar, but this Bears class is probably the least consequential of all 32 teams.  If they nailed it, so what?  They get a starting tight end, starting corner, rotational edge player, and rotational deep threat?  And if they bombed it, so what?  What matters is their quarterback competition and head coach performance.

I used to believe prospects were destined to fail or succeed.  I thought how lucky the Steelers were for having players like Big Ben and Heath Miller "fall" to them every year.  The reality is that some programs develop players better.  The Bears are at a crossroads with Matt Nagy, who last season saw his offense regress and defense unable to overcome the loss of Vic Fangio.  Point is, these draft picks may be walking into a lame-duck situation, which isn't good for anyone.

To further annoy Bears fans, I have to be honest that I was much lower on their first three selections than the consensus.  I thought Cole Kmet (2) was the single most overrated prospect in the entire draft.  My notes include the words "weak" and "soft."  He showed poorly as a blocker against Virginia with no pop in his hands, struggled to get off second-level collisions, and lacked great balance - arguably the most important trait for any player.  Kmet is big with good hands but I really don't see his game translating to anything more than an average player.  There's a reason this tight end class was universally knocked as weak.

In the second they went with Jaylon Johnson (1), who I had as my 10th-ranked cornerback. Johnson gained some steam as a potential first-round pick, but I just didn't like his film.  He pretty much lost Utah the game against USC, giving up an early TD because he lost his balance and getting flagged for a game-sealing defensive pass interference because he couldn't get his head around.  His film showed poor balance, late reactions, missed tackles, and worst of all - questionable effort, especially against BYU.  He has the feet and length to stay with receivers, but I want him in cover three and that's it.  Late eyes and questionable balance are deal-breakers for defensive backs.

As for their other picks, I will give Darnell Mooney (3) a shot to be a deep threat.  He can't block and is probably too weak to do anything right now, but his speed absolutely plays.  All he did at Tulane was run slants and go routes so it will take some time.  Trevis Gipson (2) jars the ball loose frequently but everything just looks too difficult versus Oklahoma State and Texas.  Hustle sacks are great in terms of college performance but provide no confidence in terms of translatable traits.

A few years ago, I correctly predicted the Bears would be a surprise playoff team.  You'll be shocked to read that this year I won't.

Detroit Lions

The Lions draft class makes it pretty obvious Matt Patricia is fighting for his job this year.  Their first two picks are ready to challenge for rookie of the year from day one, they added a 22-year old edge-rusher and two guards who can play right away.  Help is here and Matthew Stafford is healthy - Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn will not survive another bottom-10 finish.

Jeff Okudah (5) is an NFL shutdown corner right now.  He has it all, including the necessary swagger.  What will separate him at the next level is his physicality and aggressiveness.  He can "motor" (align pressed and stay with his man without making contact with his hands) or shoot his inside hand at the line to throw off timing.  With his traits and instincts, I expect him to be a top-five corner in the league in his rookie year.

D'Andre Swift (3) is as fun as it gets.  My favorite note is that he makes the game look easy.  Certain players are able to be so comfortable at the college level that it is evident on film how slow the game is moving for them.  Swift does some things with the ball that prove that point, like spin out of tackles for loss and cross up safeties in the open field like Allen Iverson.  He's also awesome in the passing game as a receiver and blocker.  The Lions haven't found a foundation back since Barry Sanders and they are hoping D'Andre Swift can be just that.

I think he has that upside, but his film concerns me as well.  Swift is more comfortable in space, taking advantage of huge holes and perimeter stuff that simply won't be there in the NFL.  He's more Sony Michel than Nick Chubb, and didn't show much creativity or tackle-breaking inside.  He'll have no issue being a complementary back, but runners who are comfortable in space often struggle to transition to the pro game where there is none.  No outcome would surprise me but I think a Reggie Bush-like pro career is where he settles in.

I did not love Julian Okwara (2) on film.  He looked good against frumpy tackles, but my notes read "yikes vs UGA."  He was frequently driven back in that game, including by a wide receiver.  His pass-rushing wins were with pure athleticism rather than translatable moves.

Jonah Jackson (3) was good in pass protection and showed ideal aggressiveness.  I didn't see him get enough movement in the run game for me to be excited but he's a possible starter.  Logan Stenberg (4) on the other hand was one of my five favorite prospects in the entire draft.  He has an ugly body and below-average athleticism but his film is fun to watch.  He'll struggle with quickness sometimes but he's tough and strong and showed well against Georgia on film.  He's a huge reason Benny Snell and Lynn Bowden had so much success.  I project him as a quality starter.

Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for the other divisions in the coming days.

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