2020 NFL Draft Review - AFC South

We continue with the divisional rundown of the 2020 NFL Draft with the intriguing AFC South. Catch up on the other installments of this 2020 NFL Draft review series with the NFC South, AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North.

Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust.

Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level.  I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. Nevertheless, this is a fun exercise and gives us a chance to review how each team approached the draft.

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Overview

Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.

Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.

Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.

As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love (more on that here). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.

So here is the first installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow (5). Here's how the picks break down:

5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position.
4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position.
3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production.
2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions.
1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.

Next up, the AFC South.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars had one of the best drafts in the league.  They came in needing to re-tool the defense and added two of my top-15 players.  In the second they took a high-upside playmaker, and capped their day-two haul with one of my favorite run-stuffers in the entire draft.

C.J. Henderson (4) has shutdown corner talent.  He has the innate ability to cover people in man, showing good technique in press, off, trail, and motor.  His coverage instincts and breaks on the ball are on par with Jeff Okudah.  Henderson’s weakness defending the run is partially due to a lack of ideal strength.  If the Jaguars play enough man coverage, it won’t be exposed much.  Henderson’s blazing speed was on display on an unreal hustle play to force a touchback (gif below).  He has very pretty feet.  I’m not Rex Ryan, I swear.

With the 20^th-overall pick, the Jaguars selected one of my favorite players in the entire draft in LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson (5).  Chaisson was the 9^th-ranked player on my board and epitomizes the traits vs. performance misconception.  In 2015 I endorsed Danielle Hunter as a big-time pass rusher despite tallying just 4.5 sacks at LSU.  It’s coincidental that any critique of Chaisson begins with “lack of production.”  On film, there are instances of being this-close due to technique deficiencies.  He likely did not always great out amazingly with his position coach.  But as far as evaluating translatable traits, and projecting him to the completely different NFL game, Chaisson is oozing with upside at just 20 years old.

Everyone agrees that Chaisson's physical traits are outstanding.  He’s an exceptional athlete, somehow both smooth and twitchy with great balance.  He’s a raw speed rusher who can bend, and has ideal ankle flexion for an edge player.  Against older and more experienced tackles like Andrew Thomas and Alex Leatherwood, Chaisson didn’t always produce or perform well in an NCAA context.  However, he had reps where he won and/or displayed ideal translatable traits in terms of pass-rushing technique, power, speed, handwork, and moves he can develop.  My notes are overwhelmingly positive.  He destroyed a guard on a stunt, stunted over two gaps to explode inside for a sack, showed big hits in space, beat Leatherwood twice off the ball, and showed power against the Oklahoma left tackle.  I was right on Hunter.  Chaisson has even more upside.

In the second round, the Jaguars selected one of the most enigmatic players in the draft in Colorado’s Laviska Shenault Jr (3).  Shenault was flat-out dominant for the majority of his college career, standing out as the best player on the field in most games.  His power is uncommon for a wide receiver.  As a run-after-catch threat, he’s in the Cordarrelle Patterson mold.  And while he’s undoubtedly a better natural receiver than Patterson, he’s still too raw to start at Z right away.  His stop-start ability is terrific and he’s a threat to take it to the house on hitch routes.  His coaching staff gave him a 4^th-and-2 end-around.

As a vertical receiver, his film leaves a lot to be desired, with multiple bad offensive pass interference, lack of separation and ball tracking, and route-running issues.  Simply put, he’s raw.  There’s a lot of projection here, and if he puts it all together, he can be a star.  His lack of timed speed (4.58 40) actually did show on tape.  On the Cordarrelle Patterson-Anquan Boldin spectrum, I predict he’ll land closer to Boldin.  The draft slot disparity between he and Henry Ruggs shows how much NFL teams value speed over college production.  Perhaps they shouldn’t. 

I wrote extensively about Davon Hamilton (4) here.  He’ll develop into one of the best run-stuffers in the league and a top interior force.  I also liked Ben Bartch (3) and even Josiah Scott (2) a bit, while the rest of the draft community thought the enormous Collin Johnson (2) was a steal.  The Jaguars made 12 picks.  If six of them are still on the roster in three years, this rookie class will spark a successful re-build.

Tennessee Titans

When the Titans drafted Marcus Mariota, the vast majority of people thought he'd become a franchise quarterback.  I predicted he would max out as an Alex Smith-level player.  The Mariota era is over in Tennessee, as Ryan Tannehill parlayed his late-season surge into a huge contract.  The Titans came into this draft without any glaring holes.  Their first two picks suggest they went with the best player available on their board.

Unfortunately, Isaiah Wilson (1) was nowhere near the best player on my board at No. 29.  I had him ranked 67^th-overall despite rumors he would be a first-round pick.  Clearly something was off with the perception of Wilson, as the draft community was much lower on him than NFL teams.  One reason for the disparity is how much the NFL values pure size in the trenches.  At 6-6, 350, Wilson surely looks the part.  I think NFL decision-makers still put a value on “first-guy-off-the-bus” type bodies, which Wilson definitely has.

The actual film shows arguably more pure strength than Mekhi Becton, but not nearly the same athleticism.  He’s a raw right tackle who is good on double teams and shows awesome power when he gets his hands inside.  The issue I can’t get over is his tendency to bend at the waist and miss initial hand placements.  He wasn’t even in the top 100 players on PFF’s big board, which suggests he may not have graded out well. They’ll need to coach bad posture habits out of him and hope he keeps his weight in check.

I was also not a huge fan of Kristian Fulton (2).  Fulton was productive in terms of pass break-ups and one of the top performers at DBU.  But again, projecting to the NFL is not about college performance, it’s about translatable NFL traits.  There’s a reason such a productive college player with ideal speed and measurables fell to 61.  Fulton generally struggled to get his head around defending verticals along the boundary, showing a lack of ideal balance and some clumsiness.  He made a couple of big plays against Virginia, but was “weirdly beat in the red zone.”  I had Fulton ranked 48^th overall, but if I could re-do my board after the draft, I’d put guys like Arnette and Robertson over him.

While I didn’t have Darrynton Evans (3) in my top-100 due to positional value, I am always a fan of selecting running backs on day two.  Evans’ speed (4.41), production, and ultimate draft slot all point to future fantasy success.  If he can learn pass protection, he can replace Dion Lewis quite easily.  His film against South Carolina wasn’t great, but that speed plays, and is a great complement to Derrick Henry.

Remember that last year’s first-rounder Jeffrey Simmons started his rookie year fresh off a serious injury.  It is fair to expect him to grow as a player, perhaps developing into an All-Pro.  It will be fascinating to see if Tannehill can repeat his 2019 magic.  If he plays at a high level again, Tennessee has the offensive supporting cast to contend in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts came into the draft with needs at wide receiver and defensive back.  After trading for DeForest Buckner, they didn't have a first-round pick.  The biggest Colts storyline going into the draft was the possibility of selecting a quarterback early.  They chose not to, and I agree with that decision.

Michael Pittman Jr. (3) seemingly has it all.  He plays fast (4.52) with great size (6-4, 223) and excellent hands.  He dominated certain games, including Utah, which featured multiple pros in their defensive backfield.  In terms of physical traits, there is no question he has what it takes to be an outstanding pro.  However, a deeper look into his film has me questioning his transition a little.  He's not particularly strong for his size and doesn't possess great balance.  His shoulder pads flop when he runs - it sounds odd but he plays a bit high.  It's understandable for someone his size, but I have to be fair to my notes.

He blocked a punt and has a lot of "college" highlights, mossing poor 5-10 corners and blowing by 2-star recruits.  When I went back for a second look I kind of loved his fluidity.  He could be an outstanding pro or just-a-guy.  The sweet spot for wideouts is typically the second round so I'll bet on him.

So where should an incredibly talented and productive Big Ten running back be selected in the NFL Draft?  A few years ago Saquon Barkley parlayed an ideal frame, 4.4 speed, and tremendous statistical production into being selected second overall.  Jonathan Taylor (3) was routinely thought of as a late-first to earl-second-round pick throughout the draft process, with a similar size/speed/production mix.  The main on-paper differences were receiving production and fumbling. Are those differences worth such a disparity in draft stock?  The point here is to pre-emptively defend my evaluation of Jonathan Taylor.  He was an elite college back, but I do not believe he profiles as a special back in the NFL.  His film is more solid than amazing.

Taylor's positives on film are obvious.  He's smooth with home run speed and tremendous vision.  He understands blocking schemes and is difficult to get down to the ground.  However, his film, specifically against Illinois, is more solid than spectacular.  I do not know if his not-going-down skills translate to the pro game where everyone is bigger, faster, and stronger.  He gets knocked back and doesn't drive the pile way too much.  Perhaps he's picking his spots, which leads to the first of the three frequent arguments against him - tread on tires (probably overrated), too many drops, and fumbling issues.  Going to Indianapolis, he will have the best offensive line in football blocking for him and less pass-game responsibility.  I do not expect him to be an All-Pro back, but I will likely target him early and often in fantasy leagues due to situation.

Julian Blackmon (3) has injury question marks but shows a spirited playstyle and tackling ability that translates.  He has all the football traits, but deep speed is a question mark.  His short-area burst is great, but he had a poor game against USC, displaying some bad angles.  He should be a solid specials contributor and third safety at absolute worst.

I had Jacob Eason (2) ranked in the top-30 on my first big board.  I liked his film a lot.  Against Oregon, he looked like a first-round pick.  The best trait Eason shows on film is his ability to make quick decisions.  He loves slants, will get to his check-downs, and was good against pressure in the games I saw.  Obviously he has the arm, but I noted his deep ball placement as "meh."  Washington had arguably the best offensive line in the country, but Eason didn't have great weapons, as I noted multiple drops by receivers.  Another underrated trait is his ball-handling, as his footwork on play-action shot plays was excellent.  I would have picked Eason to be a good player if I did not read concerning insight into his character in Bob McGinn's Athletic article with quotes from scouts.  That's why he fell so far.  I'll give a good coaching staff a chance to develop him, but playing quarterback is so hard, you can't have question marks surrounding your intangibles for anyone to feel confident in your transition.

The Colts will take a stab at contending this year with Philip Rivers at quarterback, a great offensive line, and excellent coaching staff.  They decided to build on a strength, adding Jonathan Taylor to an already talented running back room.  Analytics folks may not love it, but the 49ers just had a successful year with a run-heavy attack.  With how much nickel and dime teams play, it might be smart to zig when everyone else zags.

Houston Texans

The Texans essentially used their first-round pick on stud left tackle Laremy Tunsil, then extended him.  One of the main reasons first-round picks are so valuable is because of how cheap rookie contracts are.  So while Tunsil is clearly worth a first-round pick in a vacuum, it’s not as much of a no-brainer considering the difference in salaries.  They came into the draft needing help on defense.

With the 40^th overall pick they selected TCU defensive lineman Ross Blacklock (3), the 59^th-ranked player on my board.  While watching Blacklock’s film, I noted he would fit in best as a true nose tackle.  He played his gap well, shooting out of his low four-point stance.  He showed strength at the point of attack and made me think of him as a potential impact run-stuffer.  Then I looked at his measurables.  At just 290 pounds, Blacklock simply does not have the size to be a premier run-stuffer at the pro level.  Blacklock showed a good rip move for a sack against Purdue but showed almost no juice as a pass rusher against Texas.

My Reverse Planet Theory states that the relative worst offensive linemen in college football play inside.  There are only so many quality offensive linemen in the world, and in the NCAA most play tackle.  When lovable penetrating defensive tackles transition to the NFL, they are now matched up against amazing interior talents and converted tackles.  No other position has a jump up in competition like interior defensive linemen.  Blacklock is a potential victim of the Reverse Planet Theory, but his understanding of leverage is what will make him a decent pro.

With their next pick, the Texans took Jonathan Greenard (1) of Florida.  Greenard moves like he has cement in his cleats, and has substandard change of direction ability.  He has some competitiveness and physicality, but not enough juice as a pass rusher to be a true edge dude.  His production was nice at the college level, but I’m not even sure if his traits will allow him to be a rotational asset or special teams contributor.  He wasn’t in my top 100.

Bill O’Brien received a lot of deserved hate after dealing away DeAndre Hopkins.  Personal issues probably played a role, but there is no excuse for only receiving essentially a second-round pick and veteran running back for one of the best receivers in football.  The next few drafts are vital for Houston, as they won’t have much cap space after inevitably extending Deshaun Watson.

Thanks for reading.  Stay tuned for the NFC West and AFC West in the coming days.

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