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In the last few years, rookie running backs have garnered a lot of attention in fantasy drafts. From Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 to Josh Jacobs last season, owners have increasingly looked toward the league’s newest faces as possible stars. This offseason, fantasy experts quickly set their sights on LSU product Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be this year’s dominant rookie. As soon as he was selected by the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, numerous articles were produced detailing his immediate viability in fantasy leagues.
It’s not difficult to see why. CEH was a key part of LSU’s College Football Playoff championship in 2019, accounting for 1,867 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns. Inserting another weapon into Kansas City’s already dominant offense is bound to make fantasy footballers salivate. With incumbent starting tailback Damien Williams opting out of this season due to the pandemic, drafters have begun to look to Edwards-Helaire earlier and earlier.
Let’s consider some of the reasons why you should take a step back and let others snatch up CEH in 2020.
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Skyrocketing ADP
In the week before Williams’s announcement, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was going 23rd overall and as the 14th running back off the board in the average draft. Since then, however, he has an ADP of seventh overall and is going before proven studs like Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Other running backs that have gone at a similar position as rookies are Elliott (ADP 8) and Saquon Barkley (ADP 7). CEH’s landing spot will provide plenty of scoring opportunities, and the fact that Kansas City will likely be leading frequently also bodes well in terms of game script. However, this alone is not a legitimate reason to select Edwards-Helaire in the top ten picks.
Where the rookie’s outlook begins to fall apart is when you consider the fact that most of his production came in the final year of his college career. Indeed, in 2019 Edwards-Helaire averaged 6.6 yards per carry, which contrasts sharply with his YPC of 4.5 in the two previous seasons. Considering that his breakout season occurred at the same time that Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson were shredding defenses in the Bayou ought to give drafters pause. Of course, Kansas City also features a historically great offense, but how much of CEH’s production last season can be attributed to defenders facing too many threats is an open question.
Moreover, Edwards-Helaire, as a prospect, does not have the résumé of the hyped rookies who came before him. For instance, Ezekiel Elliott had two consecutive years of more than 2,000 scrimmage yards entering the NFL. Furthermore, he had a college YPC of 6.3 and an 86th percentile College Dominator score. Edwards-Helaire, interestingly, had just one season of meaningful production, a YPC of 5.5, and only a 27th percentile College Dominator score. This disparity cannot be overlooked. Elliott’s accomplishments at Ohio State justified a top-ten draft position much more than CEH’s possibly can.
Now consider Saquon Barkley. Saquon’s transcendent athleticism led to his lofty status, and it has translated to the NFL without a hitch. Barkley’s 40-yard dash was at the 97th percentile, his Speed Score was 99th percentile, his Burst Score was 96th percentile, and his bench press was 96th percentile. Saquon’s athleticism is matched by very few, and Edwards-Helaire is not one of them. While CEH does have an impressive 89th percentile Burst Score, his 40 time (4.6) was a full two-tenths slower than Barkley’s (4.4), his Speed Score was just 36th percentile, and his 15 bench press reps came in at just the 11th percentile. Not to mention the fact that, like Elliott, Saquon’s college production (three consecutive years of 1,000 rushing yards) dwarfs that of Edwards-Helaire.
Better Alternatives
Looking at recent ADP, there are many proven alternatives to Edwards-Helaire. Derrick Henry (ADP 8), Nick Chubb (ADP 13), and Aaron Jones (ADP 14) all have significant production to look to at the NFL level. Multiple top-tier receivers have also been going at a similar position, with Davante Adams (ADP 11) and Julio Jones (ADP 17) both being undervalued. CEH going before these players is the result of unrealistic expectations.
Top-ten picks are meant to be used on players who have had multiple years of dominance against NFL competition. Rare exceptions can be made for particularly enticing rookies, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not among this group. Drafting a bust with a first-round pick can be a disaster for fantasy owners. Those taking Edwards-Helaire at his current ADP are doing so at their own peril.
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