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It's been a tumultuous winter for the Houston Astros. Not only were they embroiled in a sign-stealing scandal (which has, naturally, progressed apace to unsubstantiated conspiracy theories about ever more sophisticated methods of cheating), but they watched staff ace Gerrit Cole sign a mammoth free-agent deal with the Yankees. Plenty of virtual ink has been spilled on the former, while the latter has gotten about as lost in the shuffle as a $324 million contract possibly can.
With Cole having taken his talents to New York, though, the Astros find themselves with less proven depth in their starting rotation than they've had in some time. Grizzled veterans Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke return at the top, and Lance McCullers Jr. should slot in behind them in his return from Tommy John surgery. The final two rotation spots will be left, at least in the early going, to the youth.
The likeliest of that group of young arms to emerge as a reliable starter and fantasy asset is Jose Urquidy.
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An Impressive Rookie Showing
We last saw Urquidy tossing five shutout innings in Game 4 of the World Series, helping the Astros even things up at two games apiece. Although they went on to lose that series in seven games, Urquidy's performance put an exclamation point on a season in which he emerged from relative obscurity.
Entering 2019, the lanky right-hander profiled as more of a spot starter than anything else, thanks mainly to his command and a plus change-up. Increased fastball velocity and the addition of a second breaking ball allowed him to move quickly from Double-A to the majors. In nine major-league appearances (seven starts) covering 41 innings, Urquidy posted solid ratios (3.95 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and a 19.8% K-BB that would have ranked 17th among starters if he'd thrown enough innings to qualify.
Throughout his minor league career, Urquidy showcased the ability to miss bats in bunches while rarely missing the strike zone. He also induced pop-ups, the most harmless type of batted ball, at a well-above-average rate. These qualities carried over to his work in the majors, though the sample size is obviously small as he will enter 2020 still in rookie status.
Building On The Breakout
One thing that didn't carry over from Urquidy's work in the low minors to his 2019 campaign? Low home run rates. In 111 innings across Triple-A and the majors last year, the 24-year-old allowed 21 homers. He hasn't displayed an extreme tendency toward grounders or flies to this point in his career but has tilted more toward the latter. That could present some issues, particularly if the MLB ball remains juicy for all or part of the 2020 season.
Even if he shows some vulnerability to the long ball, though, Urquidy's ability to limit base runners should mitigate that to a significant degree. And while a strikeout per inning doesn't go quite as far as it used to, he'll rack up enough whiffs to help you keep up with the Joneses.
Backed by an Astros squad that still figures to be plenty potent even if they aren't running a sophisticated sign-stealing scheme, Urquidy should be in position for plenty of wins. Like many pitchers in today's game, volume and length could be concerns for him. But after logging 144 innings last year, making the jump to 170-180 isn't asking too much, which means he should pitch deep enough in most games to have a shot at a victory.
Urquidy enters 2020 as a clear favorite for a rotation spot in Houston. As with any young arm, he'll need to prove he can sustain the growth he displayed in 2019 and respond as MLB hitters adjust. At a modest 231 ADP, though, he's a low-risk bet.
