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Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 MLB season. Michael Simione (SPStreamer) explains why Houser could be a productive, if unexciting, SP for fantasy teams.
In life, there seem to be two kinds of people, the flashy and the boring. “Flashy” people like high-end materialistic things such as nice clothing or an expensive car. "Boring” people prefer the simpler things in life like spending time with their loved ones. This seems to be true when it comes to fantasy baseball, people tend to ignore the boring less flashy players.
While nasty pitches and high amounts of strikeouts are fun, sometimes the pitchers who know how to get it done can help you the most. Adrian Houser can be your boring but productive pitcher for the upcoming 2020 season.
In 2019, Houser played in both a relief and starting role for the Milwaukee Brewers. Overall he posted very solid numbers with a 3.72 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and 25.3 K% in 111.1 innings pitched. If you take out the relief innings, his numbers become less exciting with a 4.57 ERA, 4.22 FIP, and 24.2 K%. Even so, there is a lot of good in Houser’s profile that points to a much better future.
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Weak Contact
Houser isn’t the type of pitcher who will be getting you double-digit strikeouts in a game as the 9.6 SwStr% and low 27.5 O-Swing% certainly don’t show better days ahead. You don’t need strikeouts to be a viable fantasy option though, especially when a pitcher like Houser creates so much weak contact. Overall, he produced a 53.4 GB% which ranks ninth overall amongst starters with at least 15 starts.
When hitters did get some lift under his pitches he still seemed to impress, his average exit velocity in 2019 was 86.0, which was 11th overall and top 9% in the league. What was even more impressive was his xwOBA of .285 which was better than both Chris Sale and Lance Lynn. Houser knows how to create weak contact and he does it very well.
Minor Adjustments
There is one small adjustment that Houser needs to make, in doing so it can certainly take his game to another level. When Houser faces left-handed hitters (LHH) he loves to throw his main pitch, the two-seam fastball. But Houser should shy away from it because it becomes a lot less effective. Below is the comparison of his two-seam fastball versus LHH and RHH.
| Batter Type | GB% | Barrel% | xwOBAcon | xwOBA | BAA | SLG |
| vs LHH | 43.2 | 6.1 | 0.336 | 0.288 | 0.277 | 0.467 |
| vs RHH | 64.9 | 4.1 | 0.301 | 0.253 | 0.217 | 0.343 |
As you can see using his two-seam 21% of the time against LHH isn’t an ideal strategy. He should look to his four-seam fastball more. Against LHH his four-seam had a .182 batting average against with an impressive 13.7 SwStr% and .265 xwOBA. Houser do us all a favor and ditch that two-seam against left-handed hitters!
Arsenal
Two-Seam Fastball
Adrian Houser's Two-Seam Fastball:
.284 xwOBAcon
85.7 EV
68.1 Weak%
66.4 GB%
.105 ISO
11.3 pVALCreates so much weak contact@Brewers #FantasyBaseball #BrewCrew pic.twitter.com/ExcUrF1pYy
— SP Streamer (@SPStreamer) February 18, 2020
This pitch was Houser’s bread and butter in 2019. It creates a lot of weak contact and has some serious horizontal movement. He loves to place it low in the zone and utilizes it very well (11.3 pVAL). Look for this pitch to be even better next year as its .242 BAA came with a .221 xBA and .293 BABIP.
Four-Seam Fastball
Houser’s second-best pitch is another fastball except for this time it’s a four-seam fastball. With his four-seam, he likes to force the hitter to change their eye level and throws this high in the zone causing a lot of swings and misses. It actually posted better results than his two-seam fastball as it produced a .190 xBA and 11.6 SwStr%.
Curveball
Houser had a weak curveball as it posted a measly 6.4 SwStr% in 2019. I do see some potential here though, it has a really good -10.2 vertical movement to it which is a steep drop. It also came with a .345 BABIP which shows it was very unlucky last year. Expect this pitch to be better for 2020.
Slider
Houser used his slider as a strikeout pitch when ahead in the count. While it did post a decent SwStr% of 12.3% it, unfortunately, came with a .375 ISO and 175 wRC+. Batters aren’t fooled by this pitch and very rarely chase it out of the zone.
Changeup
Houser only uses this pitch 6.8% of the time and rightfully so as it was his weakest pitch of 2019.
2020 Outlook
Houser does a lot of things well, more specifically he creates a lot of weak contact. In a time where home runs are plenty and pitchers are having issues with keeping the ball in the park, Houser will never have that issue.
If he can make the small adjustment against LHH he certainly will thrive in 2020. While Adrian Houser isn’t the flashy high strikeout pitcher we all love, he can provide a lot of draft day value at his current ADP of 253.
