2020 Offseason Starting Pitcher Rankings (Part 3) - Fantasy Baseball Mixed Leagues

We continue with our analysis of the early 2020 fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings by looking at the middle tiers. To read part one, click right here, or right here for part two.

After a record-setting year for offense and a sense among the industry that 2020 likely won't be dramatically different, being able to navigate the ever-murkier waters of starting pitching will continue to be of prime importance. Looking at last year's earnings at the position, stark tiers quickly reveal themselves, with two players earning over $40, followed by five players who earned over $20, and 13 who earned over $10. That's only 20 pitchers total who earned double-digit dollars in 12-team leagues, followed by a big mess of players who didn't. Now that's what I call murky.

Now that we're through all the names you know, let's travel further down the list and take a look at some players in the lower tier and try and suss out where some value (and pitfalls) can be found.

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Starting Pitcher Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (January)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season.

Tier Seven

I felt a lot more comfortable ranking Lance McCullers Jr. at #208 before (former) Houston Astros GM Jeff Luhnow intimated at the Winter Meeting that McCullers would likely be capped around 120 innings. The skills I can believe in but McCullers will have to be awful good to earn his current 192 ADP, currently priced as the #57 starter. Steamer projects him for a 25.6% K-rate, 1.29 WHIP, with a 3.78 ERA and those numbers might be playable at the 156 innings they're also projecting. However, only likely to get the aforementioned 120 innings, I just don't think I'll be finding my way to McCullers in too many drafts.

Perhaps it's never a good idea to trust any Dodgers starter besides Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler when it comes to staying in starting rotation all year but I somehow like Kenta Maeda's chances to do so in 2020. For one, he's already penciled in as the third starter according to RosterResource, with perennially injured Alex Wood and perennially the next-big-thing, Julio Urias, behind him. Maeda only had a 4.04 ERA over 152.2 innings in 2019 but that came with a more than serviceable 27.1 K-rate and a 1.01 WHIP. However, Maeda's biggest talent may be his ability to limit hard contact, as his 28.8% hard-hit rate was in the top-5% of baseball, according to Baseball Savant.

Are we all definitely sure that Cole Hamels is still good? The Atlanta Braves think so, giving Hamels $18 million to pitch in 2020 for them, but it looks like I don't, having given Hamels the lowest ranking out of we, the RotoBaller Three. Hamels had a 3.81 ERA in 2019, a year after posting a 3.78 ERA in 2017. Okay, that's not horrible, I guess? However, he posted a 4.55 SIERA along with the ERA, with a 1.39 WHIP that was the highest of his career, and it all came with Hamel's same-old 23% K-rate. Combining those lackluster numbers with a 40.5% Hard-hit rate, 7.6% Barrel-rate, and an 89.2 average exit-velocity (all career-highs), I'm not finding many reasons for wanting to roster Hamels, even at his current 258 ADP in NFBC leagues.

Tier Eight

One of my favorite pitchers in 2020 is obviously...Seth Lugo? Oh, you don't know about Seth Lugo? Well, maybe you should, because Lugo just pitched  101 innings for the second-straight year and finished with a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 33.1% K-rate. What about those peripherals, you may ask? Lugo backed that 2.70 ERA with a 2.70 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, and a 2.78 SIERA, while his four-seamer went from a 10.9% SwStr% to a 13.5% SwStr% and his two-seamer went from 6.3% to 8.9%.

The fastballs kept the same shape and speed from previous years but it may have been the changes to his release points along with subtle changes to his curveball that really helped his other pitches take off. Lugo spun his hook with greater authority by adding 110 RPM, an extra inch of horizontal break, and almost three more inches of drop on the vertical plane, according to Baseball Savant.

The curveball was an even nastier put-away pitch for Lugo - going from a 25.7% K-rate on the pitch to a 32.9% K-rate - but the biggest effect it may have had was on his sinker. The vertical and horizontal release points on both pitches have changed since 2018 - and from the beginning of 2019 -  with the sinker's vertical location dropping, while raising up his curveball slightly.

The subtle changes led to two pitches that began tunneling in greater synchronicity and may have been the reason that his sinker went from a .288 batting average against and a 9.5% K-rate in 2018; to a .169 batting average and 31% K-rate in 2019, while also raising it's groundball rate 14-points, to 48.8%. For me, any saves that Lugo may get if Edwin Diaz blows up again, are pure gravy because I'm here for the 100 innings of 30% K-rates and a sub-1.oo WHIP.

It's easy to see that I'm not a big believer in Dylan Cease, as I'm the only one of us to rank him outside of our top-300. He ended the season strong, allowing just one run in each of his last three starts while striking out 17 in 14.1 innings, but had only two other starts in 2019 where he didn't give up at least three runs. The rookie's slider was certainly a bit of filth and had a 34.3 whiff-rate but the fastball was dirty. Not dirty, as in filthy; but dirty as in trashy, finishing with a .356 batting average against it, a .637 SLG, and a .454 wOBA. It may sit in the mid-'90s but until Cease can control it better and stop letting batters smash it so much, then the plus-slider isn't going to do him much good.

We're updating our overall ranking constantly here and Oakland's A.J. Puk is one player who has moved up dramatically for me since the end of the season. I currently have him sitting at #248 overall, as I've become more confident in his chances of starting, even though his innings will likely be managed, whether by spending time in the bullpen or being shut down prematurely. Roster Resource currently has him starting in the bullpen but ahead of him on the depth chart is a mess of pitchers with shaky performances and/or a long history of injuries, in Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, and Chris Bassitt. Even if he doesn't start that much, the A's will make sure and get Puk the innings he needs for his development, one way or another. Much like Lugo before him, I think I'm going to get plenty of innings with a near 30% K-rate, with a 259 ADP in NFBC leagues that is more than palatable.

Tier Nine

Let's keep the theme going, shall we? I know that Ross Stripling isn't currently in the Dodger's rotation and he might not spend any time at all starting for Los Angeles in 2020, but I believe in Stripling the pitcher and believe the Dodgers do too. In other words, I think he's going to get his innings, regardless of role. The 25%+ K-rate and 3.50 ERA are nice but what I really like is the price, with Stripling currently carrying a 306 ADP in NFBC. That's a pretty low cost for a high-innings reliever who has above-average stats and a chance at starting for one of baseball's best teams.

I know I'm not alone in being unable to quit the constantly injured, Garrett Richards, who is apparently not currently injured and ended his 2019 on the mound for the San Diego Padres, with eight innings that weren't that impressive. However, the velocity was mostly back - averaging 95.2 mph - and Richards still had his nasty slider; a pitch that has a 19.3% SwStr% and a 46.3% K-rate in 2018. Richards will inevitably have a season-ending injury but with a 282 ADP, I'm willing to ride him until he does.

If Toronto had a spot open in their rotation, Nate Pearson would be a lot higher for me, after the right-hander spent 2019 dominating the minor leagues. Pearson is a 6-foot-6 flamethrower who sits in the high-90s, frequently reaches triple-digits, and can hit 104 mph, pairing his heater with a hard-biting, devastating slider that is thrown around 89-92 mph. He also features an average curveball that can be thrown for strikes and a changeup that's still a work in progress. However, after the offseason signings of Hyun-Jin Ryu and Shun Yamaguchi, there doesn't seem to be much room for Pearson to squeeze in. Roster Resource currently projects a rotation of Ryu, Chase Anderson, Tanner Roark, Matt Shoemaker, and Ryan Borucki; with Yamaguchi and Trent Thornton also possibilities. That isn't a group that has a long track record of health and/or success, however, so if Pearson continues to mow through the minors, expect the 23-year-old to make his debut sometime in 2020.

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