Greg Olsen (TE, CAR) - 2019 Fantasy Football Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~130 Overall

Current ADP: ~140

Olsen is an NFL veteran, and lately he's been a fragile one. In both 2017 and 2018, he only played in seven and nine games respectively. I have always valued him quite high (injuries or not), and he ranked 9th in DVOA when on the field last season. What is more impressive is that he was the 14th-best TE by DYAR, which instead of a rate stat is a counting one. Even missing seven games he was able to perform to a level most TE can only dream of!

So where am I going with this? Well, if Greg Olsen can overcome the injuries that have followed him for two years now and stay healthy for a full season, he should be right at the top of your league leaderboards. More often than not, ADP doesn't lie. If he's being drafted as late as the 13th round, it is for something. Injuries are there. There is also Cam Newtonand his wobbly shoulder. This would be a high-risk move indeed.

Olsen finished the year with only a 12.6% usage, but Newton has always used him a safe option. He scored four touchdowns in a down season, surpassed by only eight other tight ends, who were targeted at least 10 more times than Olsen. He could double up his numbers next year. He could easily end the season with 80 targets for around 55 receptions and more than 700 yards to go with seven touchdowns. For a tight end picked in the 13th round and ranked 12th-best at the position (around 110 expected PPR points) that's a steal (if he doubles his 2018 mark he'd end at around 160 PPR points).