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Most fantasy owners have already drafted their squads by this point in March, but there are a handful of leagues that wait until after the season has started to populate their rosters. It seems bizarre, but we're not judging.
This column will continue with its current format (citing ADP data) until a few weeks into the 2018 season, at which point we'll shift gears with an emphasis on waiver wire targets and trade candidates.
Two exciting young players are placed under the microscope below. Luis Castillo has the talent to be a fantasy ace for the Cincinnati Reds, while Miguel Sano mashes baseballs like few others. Both have their warts too, so should you roster them? Let's find out!
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Luis Castillo (SP, CIN) ADP: 220.5
This has to be prefaced by stating that Castillo's ADP above is wildly inaccurate. FantasyPros claims he has an ADP of 790 on the FanTrax platform, inflating the composite ADP to 220.5 despite the second highest mark being 123 on Yahoo. My FanTrax league lists an 87.84 ADP for Castillo, and his cost is usually around the 100 mark.
It's tough to support a top-100 pick on a pitcher with all of 89 1/3 MLB IP, but Castillo was special in 2017. His 3.12 ERA was mostly supported by his 3.41 xFIP, and he dominated Double-A (2.58 ERA, 2.65 xFIP) before earning his big league promotion. Castillo also struck out the world (27.3% K%) and maintained a strong GB% (59%) when batters put the ball into play. Two of his three "luck metrics" were favorable last season (.247 BABIP, 80.1% LOB%), but the third largely canceled them out (17.2% HR/FB). What should we expect in 2018?
The short answer is a whole bunch of strikeouts. Castillo's heater averaged 97.7 mph last year, limiting batters to a .246/.358/.515 line despite a strong 53.8% Zone%. It also posted a 9.4% SwStr%, ably setting up Castillo's secondary stuff.
Castillo's best pitch is his change of pace. Used 22.7% of the time, batters swung through it a whopping 22.5% of the time last year. It's usually not a strike (36.8% Zone%), but that doesn't matter if batters will chase it 45% of the time. It also stymied batters who put it into play (.138/.200/.207), even boosting Castillo's ground ball tendency with a GB% of 60.4%.
Next up is a slider Castillo threw 15.2% of the time. Its 15.2% SwStr% and .093/.111/.116 line against were very strong, and its 74.1% GB% was nothing short of elite in a hitter's park. It needs a little work however, as it is rarely a strike (32.6% Zone%) and is chased at only a 31.1% clip. Still, the upside is there to make this a premium pitch.
Finally, Castillo features a 97 mph sinker. It's underwhelming for both Ks (5.2% SwStr%) and contact management (.280/.308/.420), but gets Castillo ahead in the count (56.4% Zone%) and induces tons of grounders (75.6% GB%).
It's worth noting that Castillo didn't have such a strong profile in the minors. His GB% at Double-A was only 39% before he debuted in the Show, while his K% was "only" 25.6%. He also walked fewer guys (4.1% BB% vs. 8.9% at the MLB level), so it's not all dreary. Overall, you should trust in the stuff, and Castillo can bring it.
Naysayers will undoubtedly focus on his .247 BABIP and scream for regression, and last year's 12.2% LD% is almost certainly going up. However, the Reds have the players in place to provide strong defensive support to their arms this year. Castillo is a ground ball guy, so let's look at infielders first.
Joey Votto is great at everything, including first base defense (11 DRS last year). Third baseman Eugenio Suarez is well above average (five). The middle infield positions will miss Zack Cozart's slick glove, as 2B Scooter Gennett (-8) and SS Jose Peraza (-6) both profile well below average. Still, the unit is a hair above average overall.
Castillo's infield help comes primarily from his battery mate, Tucker Barnhart. Catcher defense is virtually impossible to quantify, but Barnhart's 11 DRS and elite defensive reputation suggest that he provides a lot of value out there.
The team's outfield is also excellent defensively. You probably knew that Billy Hamilton catches everything (10 Outs Above Average last year), but you may not have realized that Adam Duvall is nearly as good (nine). The team had 16 OAA overall, ranking fourth in baseball. This may seem irrelevant to a ground ball specialist like Castillo, but much of last year's BABIP suppression was on flies (.113 BABIP) and line drives (.630). Premium OF defense could support another favorable BABIP.
Likewise, Castillo's 80.1% strand rate is repeatable as long as he keeps his K% up, while his 17.2% HR/FB is due for some positive regression (6.4% HR/FB at Double-A). That gives the 25-year old the upside to win leagues at a relatively affordable price.
Verdict: Champ
Miguel Sano (1B/3B, MIN) ADP: 98.3
Sano slashed .264/.352/.507 with 28 long balls over 483 PAs last year. Normally that would make his ADP lower than it is, but he is recovering from mid-November shin surgery and was facing a possible suspension related to an incident with a reporter. The latter is no longer a concern, but the former will remain a question mark all season long.
Sano's power potential is elite, but so is his batting average downside. Last year's 27.5% HR/FB was remarkably close to his career mark of 24.5%. He hits a ton of flies (40.5% FB%) and pulls a lot of them (30.4% Pull% on fly balls), allowing his elite average airborne exit velocity (98.2 mph, fourth in MLB min. 100 BBE) and rate of Brls/BBE (16.3%, sixth) to take care of the rest. His 2015 (98.9 mph, 20.4% Brls/BBE) and 2016 (96.9 mph, 14.1% Brls/BBE) Statcast metrics suggest that last year's numbers are real, so Sano should slug 40+ dingers over a full campaign.
Unfortunately, Sano generates that power with a vicious uppercut swing that has produced a 35.8% K% both last year and over his career. He has an average eye (29.1% chase rate last year), but whiffs at enough pitches in the strike zone (73.5% Z-Contact%) to post an ugly 18.3% SwStr%. Barring a dramatic change in approach, Sano could lead the league in Ks this year.
Last year's .264 average was tolerable thanks to a .375 BABIP, but it's not sustainable despite his .362 career mark. Sano's career BABIP on grounders is .307, a number he replicated nearly perfectly last year (.306). His ground ball exit velocity is strong (86.3 mph last year) and he doesn't care about the shift (.367 average against it last year), but nobody should be projected for a BABIP on ground balls that high. His slightly below average Statcast Sprint Speed (26.9 ft./sec) also doesn't do him any favors.
Sano also has a fly ball profile that takes a little bite out of his BABIP potential, though the resulting power upside is more than worth it.
That doesn't mean that his BABIP will fall off a cliff. He has the skills for a .270ish BABIP on grounders, which is still 30 points better than the league average. He hits an average number of line drives (21.4% career LD%), and his ridiculous contact authority gives him a favorable BABIP on both liners (.782) and flies (.153) for his career. Finally, he doesn't pop out that often for a player with his skill set (6.9% IFFB% last year).
Ultimately, Sano's viability for your roster depends on its composition. If you have a strong batting average base from Jose Altuve and Daniel Murphy, go ahead and roster Sano's power. If your early picks were spent on players such as Aaron Judge and Khris Davis, you might want to avoid Sano at his current cost.
Verdict: Champ and Chump (depending on your roster)
