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We continue our preseason fantasy football sleeper series with a look at Buffalo Bills tight end Charles Clay.
While the first few rounds of every draft are essentially a wash-rinse-repeat of the consensus top-36, we can always count on those middle and late rounds to cement our confidence in this year's sleepers. The definition of the fantasy football sleeper has changed over the years, with the emergence of the industry itself on social media. The common sleeper today isn't a player that is being 'slept on' by the community. They're more like a player in a great spot to outperform his average draft position based on a plethora of factors.
Let's see why Clay could fit that bill in upcoming fantasy drafts.
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2018 Sleeper - Charles Clay
Deciding which tight end to draft in fantasy football can be a daunting task. While they are less likely to provide the same production as your running backs and wide receivers, owners who can find a diamond in the rough at the position can rise to the top of their league's standings.
While there are plenty of high-upside tight end options in the early rounds of drafts, owners who choose to wait to select one in the later rounds of their draft would do well to consider Bills TE Charles Clay.
Here's how he fared in 2017:
2017 STANDARD SCORING FANTASY FINISH: TE-19
10-TEAM STANDARD ADP: 14.04 (TE-20)
2017 PPR SCORING FANTASY FINISH (PPR): TE-18
10-TEAM PPR ADP: 14.01 (TE-22)
Some owners may consider it fitting that Clay is going off the board as the 20th ranked tight end in standard and 22nd ranked tight end in PPR based on his fantasy finishes from last season. However, when we dive into his numbers a little deeper, it becomes clear that Clay has a great chance of outperforming his current average draft position.
Although the 29-year-old dealt with knee and hamstring injuries during stretches of last season, Clay still managed to finish with some solid receiving numbers. His 49 receptions on 74 targets accumulated 558 receiving yards and two touchdowns across 13 games. Perhaps most notably, he finished third on his team in total targets and second in red zone targets despite missing three games.
While it may appear that Clay's ceiling is limited as a fantasy option, his hot start as fantasy's fourth-ranked tight end through the first four weeks of the 2017 season should make clear that he has the upside to be a difference-maker on your roster.
The most notable concerns for Clay as he heads into 2018 are injuries and red zone opportunity. He has only managed to play a full 16-game season once across his seven years in the league and it remains to be seen whether the Buffalo Bills offense as a whole can provide scoring opportunities. While it is true that the Bills offense could shape up to be inept when it comes to scoring touchdowns, there are good reasons to think that Clay's health concerns can be alleviated to some degree.
First, while Clay's missed time has kept him from a top-12 fantasy finish the past few years, he still managed to finish as a top-20 option in each of the past three seasons. That is no easy feat considering how Clay did not play one full 16-game season in that span. In addition, Clay has made an effort to change his diet this offseason in order to give himself a chance to stay on the field more and said that he felt "awesome" after organized team activities.
Bottom Line: Clay has a great chance of returning on fantasy owners' investment of a 14th round pick. When healthy, his production resembles that of a low-end TE1 and he remains one of the few reliable weapons that the Buffalo Bills have after all of their offseason transactions. If he is healthy enough to start the season, as he looks right now, Clay could be a consistent starter for someone who takes a chance on him.
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