RADIO
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - I'm not big on the term "sleeper." When anybody with a computer and a working Internet connection can drill down deep into any player's performance with a few keystrokes and a couple of clicks, the odds of you catching any of your rivals truly sleeping on a player are low.
That's not to imply that you can't find value in your drafts - far from it. Being the one who takes the chance on a player whose perceived market value doesn't match his likely production is often still what separates the winners from the losers in this game.
As we draw closer to the start of the season, I'm offering my thoughts on potential 2018 fantasy baseball draft bargains at every position. Today we're covering American League starting pitchers.
Affordable AL Arms
Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
Insofar as anyone who’s been blessed with the requisite ability to play professional baseball for millions of dollars can be considered “unlucky,” fortune has frowned in Richard’s direction the last two seasons. Due to injuries, the Angels’ ace has only managed a dozen starts totaling 62 innings over that time. What those arm issues haven’t done is rob him of his talent. His performance in that sadly limited sample (2.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, just three home runs allowed) proves that. So does the obvious life on his impressive arsenal – mid-90s heat, wipeout slider, and a curveball that routinely freezes batters. Health is a major question mark, but talent is not. If this is the year Richards can finally avoid the disabled list, he’s well worth his 168 ADP.
Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
It comes as a bit of surprise how reasonable Faria’s draft price has been this year. After all, in his 14 starts as a rookie, Faria produced tidy ratios (3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), a 12.0 SwStr% (would have ranked top-15 among qualified starters), and a 14.9% pop-up rate (would have ranked third). He also benefits from a friendly home park in Tropicana Field, and hot starts like his (2.00 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in his first seven turns) tend to stick in the minds of fantasy owners. Yet Faria typically doesn’t come off the board until near the end of most drafts. He has the balanced repertoire needed to succeed as a starter, particularly if he can refine his fastball command a bit.
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
I’m turning into a believer after years of wondering what people saw in this kid. Lowering his arm slot this spring appears to have unlocked his arsenal, increasing the horizontal movement on his pitches and perhaps allowing him to get back to routinely touching 95 with his fastball. Jeff Sullivan recently pointed out that James Paxton made a similar adjustment, and the evidence is certainly compelling. Paxton became one of the best pitchers in baseball, albeit one who hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Giolito has Tommy John surgery on his ledger, but he’s also only 23 and hasn’t demonstrated that kind of problem with durability yet. He’ll enter the season locked into a spot in the White Sox rotation. You’ll notice I haven’t said much about Giolito’s seven MLB starts last season; the underlying skills certainly didn’t support the sparkling ratios (2.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). This is a bet on a former top prospect having figured out his mechanics, and it doesn’t cost much – Giolito’s being drafted outside the top 60 starting pitchers.
Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees
The man they call Gumby enjoyed a productive rookie season for the Yankees, putting up respectable ratios (3.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) whilst striking out nearly a batter per inning. Montgomery does an impressive job of limiting hard contact thanks to a five-pitch mix. The changeup, slider, and curve all generated positive pitch values. The fastball and (especially) the sinker, not so much. The big lefty will either need to improve his command of the heater or throw it less often to take the next step, especially given that Yankee Stadium is extremely friendly to RHB. Even if he just treads water in 2018, though, he’ll be worth the late-round pick currently required to land his services. Reasonable floor and plausible upside? That’s a guy you want in the waning moments of your draft.
Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics
Manaea’s sophomore season didn’t live up to fantasy owners’ hype-inflated expectations. Rather than improve on his encouraging rookie performance, the Throwin’ Samoan regressed to a 4.37 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and his strikeout rate didn’t budge. Still, the things that made Manaea such an appealing fantasy option haven’t really changed. His slider and changeup both generate a ton of swings and misses, which allows his admittedly middling fastball to play up a bit. The trouble last season was that Manaea seemed to lose his feel for the change; it was still getting whiffs, but he couldn’t locate it in the zone often enough. A shoulder strain and a prolonged illness that led to him losing 20 pounds can plausibly be blamed for his struggles; health could be the key here.
