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2017 Rankings Analysis - Running Backs in PPR Leagues

The dust has long since settled on Super Bowl LI, so it's officially time to move on to the 2017 football season. For dedicated fantasy football owners who start their preparation early, RotoBaller has you covered. We are releasing our preliminary 2017 rankings across all league formats and analyzing what it means for your mock drafts in the coming months.

For you go-getters and MFL10 players, this is a chance to see what the first couple of tiers might look like at each position. We started with a look at the tight end position, followed by a rundown of quarterbacks.

Today, we look at the all-important running back position to determine how you should value players in PPR leagues.

 

Early 2017 Running Back Rankings - PPR Leagues

1. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

In my earlier standard league rankings analysis, I had Zeke #1 overall with DJ a close second. In PPR leagues, there's no question that the man who won an award from ProFootballFocus as best receiver, despite the fact he lines up at running back each game, belongs in the top spot. Johnson led the league in total yards (2,118) and touchdowns (20) in his first full year as a starter. If there is a concern at all, it might be that the Cardinals reduce his workload a bit in his third season in order to keep him healthy, especially after the leg injury scare in Week 17. Even so, Johnson stood head and shoulders above everyone else in 2016 and is the rightful top pick at running back in PPR.

2. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

There's always going to be a cloud hanging over Bell on draft day due to the risk of injury or suspension, given his past. That doesn't change the fact he is more valuable than most wide receivers even without his rushing numbers. Over his four-year career, about one-third of Bell's total yardage has come through the air (2,005/6,050). The downside is that he's only scored double-digit touchdowns once in his career, with 11 in 2014. Then again, that's the only season he actually played more than 13 games. Zeke is a safer pick, but in PPR formats, Bell's ceiling is definitely higher, making him worth the risk.

3. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

If you want to pick Elliott second or even first overall in a PPR league, I wouldn't blame you. He's coming off a stellar rookie year in which he came six yards shy of 2,000 total yards from scrimmage and scored 16 TD. Still, there is no denying he is a step behind Johnson and Bell when it comes to the receiving game. Elliott caught 32 balls in 15 games, which is less than half as many as Bell caught in 12 games. The retirement of Doug Free puts a slight damper on the NFL's best offensive line, but not enough to downgrade Elliott in any serious way. He should be a top-three pick in any and every fantasy football league.

4. LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

Shady jumped back up the RB rankings with an excellent year. The Bills led the league in rushing yards per game at 164.4 and finished 30th in passing yards per game at 189.8. That run-first philosophy shouldn't change even with a new head coach. Tyrod Taylor appears to still be their starting quarterback and the Bills' receiving corps has somehow gotten worse after free agency. They are without a legitimate pass-catching back to replace him on third downs, so McCoy's receptions should remain firm at the 50-60 level. He isn't a spring chicken any more, but McCoy still stands as the head of the second tier class among running backs.

5. Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears

If you don't think Howard will be the focal point of the Bears' offense in 2017, you haven't been paying attention to free agency. The Bears signed a relatively inexperienced game manager, Mike Glennon, as their starting quarterback and let All-Pro WR Alshon Jeffery walk. There is a 99.99% chance they will draft a QB in April, but whoever it is will be a work-in-progress. Howard is a shifty back who can make his own holes and isn't reliant on a dominating offensive line for big gains. He tallied the second-most "big plays" (10+ rushing yards) among all running backs last season, behind only Elliott. You don't need to worry about Jeremy Langford or new acquisition Benny Cunningham usurping his value either.

6. Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins

Ajayi becomes slightly less valuable in PPR leagues due to a lack of involvement in the passing game. He only caught 27 balls last season, as the Dolphins preferred to bring in Damien Williams or Kenyan Drake on passing downs. That doesn't change the fact that Ajayi had FOUR 200-yard rushing games last season, despite only starting 12 games. He was the NFL's most elusive running back, according to ProFootballFocus, which means we should see a lot more big runs from him in the future. If his offensive line remains intact, Ajayi could even reach the top five.

7. Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers

Much of Gordon's value stemmed from his surprising scoring outburst. The leap from zero touchdowns to 12 in the span of one season is hard to pull off, but that's what Gordon did. The absence of Danny Woodhead (or any other competent running back) made Gordon the sole feature of the running game in San Diego, but that may change if the Chargers sign a veteran or draft a rookie to hold a third-down role. They certainly need to add depth at the position, but it's hard to tell which direction they will go. Look for Gordon's stock to fluctuate slightly before training camp breaks.

8. DeMarco Murray, Tennesse Titans

Statistically speaking, Murray belongs higher than this. He dominated all season long, particularly in the passing game. Murray finished his first season in Tennessee with 1,664 total yards and 12 TD. Most importantly, he saw a career high 67 targets out of the backfield. Those who think Derrick Henry will become a growing threat need to stand down. Coach Mike Mularkey recently stated "Murray is our No. 1 back. He is our workhorse and you saw he is capable of doing that... Derrick is a good No. 2 player for us right now." That may not be what you want to hear if you own Henry in a dynasty league, but don't be surprised if the Titans running game in 2017 looks identical to last year. The only concern with Murray is the potential for injury, as always.

9. Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

Unless the offense completely falls apart without the guidance of Kyle Shanahan (doubtful), we already have a firm grasp of what to expect from Freeman. He's posted nearly identical rushing stats for two straight years as the starting RB in Atlanta, rushing for just over 1,000 yards and scoring 11 times on the ground. He is a bit more dependent on his surrounding cast than other backs on this list and you might be worried that he posted a somewhat high 14.5% stuff rate. Still, you could do worse than 1000-10 with 50+ receptions to boot for a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick.

10. Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

It might make you cringe to see Gurley in the top 10 after last season's debacle, but there is reason for optimism. Jeff Fisher's unimaginative offense is gone and new coach Sean McVay promises to rejuvenate the entire team. Jared Goff remains a work in progress, so the team should lean more heavily on Gurley, rather than abandoning the run early as they did too often last year. You may be surprised to know that he actually caught 43 passes, so don't dismiss him as an RB1 in PPR. Gurley's pitiful 3.2 Y/A will need major improvement before we buy in completely, but he deserves a little bit of slack after a sensational rookie debut showed us his level of talent.

11. Lamar Miller, Houston Texans

There is great hope for Miller now that the Texans seem bent on acquiring an actual NFL-caliber quarterback. Who that quarterback will ultimately be (Tony Romo?) is still up for discussion, but there doesn't seem to be any conceivable way the passing game won't improve upon its ranking of 29th in passing Y/G, thereby lifting the entire offense. The running game will be crucial to their playoff chances once again as the Texans do return a top-ranked defense that should hopefully have J.J. Watt for most of the season. It's not as if Miller suffered from low usage last season, seeing as how he carried the ball a career-high 268 times. There's a good chance Miller could be used the exact same way as last year with much better results. If Romo signs with Houston, expect Miller to climb up the preseason ranks.

12. Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

Ingram may never be a superstar, but he has been quietly consistent over his six-year NFL career. Last year he was a bit more unpredictable from week to week, especially after the fumbling debacle in Seattle led to a temporary benching. Nonetheless, Ingram is still the #1 guy in New Orleans and teams will never be able to stack the box against a Drew Brees-led offense, giving him ample opportunity for big gains and red zone carries. Recent research by Scott Barrett shows that Ingram was third in adjusted YPC over expectation when factoring in strength of schedule vs. run defense. His value results more in his floor than his ceiling, but at such a volatile position, that may not be such a bad thing.


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




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