X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

2017 Player vs. Player - Jordy Nelson vs. Michael Thomas

Fantasy football draft season is upon us and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

Our next article comes from staff writers Jason Katz and Taylor Maxston who compare two wide receivers with ADPs that fall around the mid-second to early third round.

Jason argues in favor of last season’s second-highest scoring wideout in Green Bay Packer Jordy Nelson, while Taylor advocates for a player who exploded onto the scene as a rookie (finishing as WR9 in standard scoring) in New Orleans Saints’ wide receiver Michael Thomas.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

Opening Statements: Who Do You Draft?

Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) Has Adapted His Game to Continue to Produce – Jason Katz

I really hate drafting old players. My general rule is no RBs over 30 and no WRs over 31. I made an exception last year for Brandon Marshall and I feel like I got what I deserved. Yet somehow, I’m willing to do it again for Jordy Nelson.

There is no chance I would draft 2014 Jordy Nelson at age 32. After tearing his ACL in 2015, I was justifiably skeptical that he would be able to successfully return at age 31 in 2016. His skillset is just not conducive to overcoming that type of injury at that age. That’s the most amazing part of Nelson. The Jordy Nelson we saw in 2016 was a completely different Jordy Nelson and the 2016 version is a guy who can produce at a high level deeper into his thirties.

Nelson scored 13 touchdowns in 2014. Five them were from 11 yards or closer. One was from 27 yards out. The other seven were from 40+ yards out. In 2016, he clearly lost a step. The thing is, Nelson knew that. He scored 14 touchdowns in 2016. His longest touchdown was 32 yards. 11 of them were 17 yards or shorter. Six of them were from inside five yards. His recognition that he could no longer beat defenders deep the way he used to and his ability to change his game, at age 31, to that of a possession type receiver, and to still be elite while doing it, is nothing short of remarkable. It is indicative of not just his incredible football talent, but also his immense football IQ. Even if the touchdowns dip a bit, there’s no reason he can’t be an elite WR1 with a 90-1200-10 type line. While projecting a decrease in catches, yards, and touchdowns, those numbers would still put Nelson as a mid WR1, which is exactly what he is being drafted to be.

 

Michael Thomas (WR, NO) Has the Ability and Opportunity – Taylor Maxston

It sounds crazy, trying to advocate for drafting an emerging wide-out after an amazing first NFL season over a firmly established fantasy stud with a strong résumé. Before you dismiss this debate as a one-sided argument, let’s talk about why Michael Thomas could outperform Jordy Nelson in the 2017/18 season.

For a rookie to step in and lead the New Orleans Saints in targets, completions, and touchdowns (a stat-line of 121-92-9) shows how trustworthy Michael Thomas became as the go-to-guy straight out of Ohio State. While not possessing the same athletic skillset as the top fantasy wide receivers, his heightened football IQ, physicality in getting separation on routes, and willingness to take contact over the middle allowed him to develop a strong rapport with quarterback Drew Brees early on last season. In the past, Brees has been the driver of Saints’ offenses with a reliable chain-mover producing strong fantasy numbers a-la Marques Colston. Thomas has shown that he wants to fill those shoes while proving to be a sure-handed, competitive wide-out that can be trusted with an even bigger workload.

What does the upcoming fantasy football season hold for Michael Thomas? Since 2006, the New Orleans Saints’ top wide receiver has had an incredibly consistent share of the teams’ targets, never falling below 16% at its lowest and reaching 23% at its peak. Thomas will undoubtedly be that player in 2017 after catching 76% of his targets and showing how productive he can be with an increased role in the offense down the stretch, catching 6 touchdowns over the final eight games last season. Furthermore, he has massive touchdown upside as a 6`3, physical target in the absence of threats outside of tight end Coby Fleener. Bottom line, Michael Thomas is in line for a WR1 role in the Saints’ offense next season with a hall of fame quarterback throwing him the ball and a lack of competition around him.

 

Rebuttals: What Are The Negatives For Each Player?

Michael Thomas (WR, NO) Had A Deceptive Level of Success Last Season – Jason Katz

I don’t dislike Michael Thomas. Not at all. Typically I’d prefer the newer, younger player over the older guy. I would love to want to draft Thomas this year. Unfortunately, he’s simply overpriced at his second round ADP.

A review of the film from 2016 shows an effective Thomas…when he’s operating against the opposing team’s second cornerback. The fantasy community is severely undervaluing how helpful Brandin Cooks’ presence was for Michael Thomas. Cooks is an elite talent that demanded the attention of the opponent’s top corner. Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks of all time. When defenses keyed in on Cooks, he threw to Thomas. However, when Thomas started torching secondary defenders, opposing coaches would have no choice but to change things up and sometimes put the top corner on Thomas. When that happened, Thomas struggled.

In 2016, the Saints had one of the easiest strengths of schedule for wide receivers. In 2017, they project for the seventh most difficult schedule. The increased difficulty of opponents combined with the lack of Brandin Cooks to command attention leads to concerns about how well Thomas will produce.

Thomas is both a real life and fantasy WR2 masquerading as a WR1. I find it hard to believe Thomas will be four rounds better than “Fast” Willie Snead, who I greatly prefer at his 7.02 standard ADP. Thomas is currently the seventh receiver off the board. That number should be more like 12-15, which is about where I’d expect Thomas to finish. Meanwhile, Jordy Nelson is the sixth receiver off the board, which is right where I expect him to be when the season ends. This is a rare case where Nelson is both the safer pick and the one with the higher ceiling. Take the guy with the proven track record in the second round.

 

Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) Doesn’t Have the Upside of a True WR1 – Taylor Maxston

Let me start by saying that I love Jordy Nelson. He’s been the centerpiece to many high-flying Green Bay Packer offenses, consistently providing quarterback Aaron Rodgers with a dangerous weapon that mad everyone around him better. While it’s true that the 2016 Nelson who produced copious amounts of fantasy points is not the same player we are used to seeing, the change in his playing style is indicative of a greater downward trend. Don’t get me wrong, he will still be a top 12 wide-out in 2017, but so many situational factors are going to make it difficult for him to live up to the production we saw over the last few seasons.

Jordy Nelson is hitting an age that is notoriously recognized as the point of decline for wide receivers, especially in fantasy football. Over the last 10 years, only two of 71 wide receivers from age 32 onward have finished in the top five of fantasy scoring, meaning he lacks the upside of a conventional WR1. There were also signs of decline last season that are obvious red flags, with Nelson’s 13.4 yards per reception taking a knock down to 12.8 from week 9 onward and a career low 8.3 yards per target to finish the 2016 season. With Nelson having just turned 32 in May, father time is a legitimate concern even for a player who has adapted his game to his limitations.

What’s more, this 2017 Packers offense has plenty of mouths to feed. Davante Adams has an entire off-season to continue to build trust with his quarterback, a healthy Randall Cobb will bounce back to form when he saw 256 targets in the 2014 and 2015 seasons, and tight end Martellus Bennett will compete for targets over the middle. Don’t expect a repeat performance of Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball 610 times last season either. Green Bay opted to try and fix their woeful secondary in the draft with second-round pick Kevin King and drafted three running backs in an attempt to re-establish some form of ground game.

I expect Jordy Nelson's ADP to creep up to the late first/early second round come August, a price that’s personally too rich for my blood. With more competition and fewer targets, Jordy Nelson’s regression will be experienced all across the board compared to a Michael Thomas who faces less competition for both targets and red-zone opportunity.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kevin Huerter19 mins ago

Out Versus Toronto
Stephen Curry47 mins ago

Spotted At Shootaround
Lauri Markkanen59 mins ago

Out Again On Saturday
Puka Nacua1 hour ago

Expected To Play
JuJu Smith-Schuster1 hour ago

Juju Smith-Schuster Ruled Out For Week 9
Bryce Young1 hour ago

Panthers Not Considering Moving Bryce Young
Cooper Kupp2 hours ago

Rams Not Expected To Move Cooper Kupp
Davante Adams2 hours ago

Jets Not Expected To Move Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
Drake Maye2 hours ago

Clears Concussion Protocol, Will Play In Week 9
Robbie Ray2 hours ago

Doesn't Opt Out Of Contract, Stays With Giants
Tee Higgins2 hours ago

Bengals Not Looking To Trade Tee Higgins
2 hours ago

Yankees Could Make Play For Pete Alonso This Offseason
Jaylen Brown2 hours ago

Won't Play On Saturday Night
Sean Manaea2 hours ago

Opts Out Of Contract, Becomes Free Agent
Cody Bellinger3 hours ago

Picks Up $27.5 Million Player Option With Cubs
Gerrit Cole3 hours ago

Opts Out Of Contract With Yankees
Rhys Hoskins5 hours ago

Staying In Milwaukee
6 hours ago

Seattle Declines Club Option On Jorge Polanco
Luke Weaver6 hours ago

Returning To New York
Josh Downs6 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 9
Eugenio Suárez6 hours ago

Arizona Picks Up Club Option On Eugenio Suarez
Michael Pittman Jr.6 hours ago

Will Play In Week 9
DK Metcalf6 hours ago

Has Strong Chance To Return In Week 11
Nikolaj Ehlers8 hours ago

Totals Four Points Versus Blue Jackets
Igor Shesterkin8 hours ago

Stops 40 Shots Versus Senators
Aleksander Barkov8 hours ago

Amasses Four Points In Finland
Dan Vladar8 hours ago

Shuts Out Devils Friday Night
Adam Pelech8 hours ago

Makes Early Exit Versus Sabres
Mike Reilly8 hours ago

Exits Friday's Action With Injury
NHL8 hours ago

Nathan Bastian Suffers Jaw Injury On Friday
Jordan Clarkson16 hours ago

Out At Least A Week
Kyle Kuzma16 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Jamal Murray16 hours ago

Won't Return On Friday Night
Giannis Antetokounmpo16 hours ago

Anticipated To Play Versus Cleveland
Puka Nacua17 hours ago

Has A Shot To Play In Week 9
Jordan Love18 hours ago

Tracking To Play In Week 9
Stephen Curry20 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Yves Missi21 hours ago

Expected To Take The Court Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns21 hours ago

Available On Friday
Eric Comrie21 hours ago

Faces Blue Jackets Friday
Daniel Theis21 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Friday
David Savard21 hours ago

Sits Out Practice For Maintenance Purposes
De'Anthony Melton21 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jordan Hawkins21 hours ago

Expected To Play Friday
Alexander Romanov21 hours ago

Ready To Play Friday
Al Horford21 hours ago

Resting Against Charlotte
Evgeni Malkin21 hours ago

Takes Maintenance Day On Friday
Andrew Wiggins21 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Matchup With Houston
Rose Namajunas21 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
D'Angelo Russell21 hours ago

Will Suit Up Versus Toronto
Devon Levi21 hours ago

Returns To Sabres Crease
Clayton Kershaw21 hours ago

To Undergo Two Surgeries
Anthony Davis21 hours ago

Available Against Toronto
Erin Blanchfield21 hours ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Lowe21 hours ago

Rays Pick Up Club Option On Brandon Lowe
Ryan Hartman21 hours ago

Rejoins Wild Lineup Friday
Zach LaVine21 hours ago

Will Play Against Brooklyn
21 hours ago

Nick Martinez Headed To Free Agency
Erik Cernak21 hours ago

Available On Friday
Marc-Andre Barriault21 hours ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Brent Suter21 hours ago

Inks Extension With Cincinnati
Immanuel Quickley21 hours ago

Out Again On Friday Night
CJ McCollum22 hours ago

Out At Least Two Weeks
22 hours ago

Yankees, Mets Among Teams In Battle For Juan Soto
Marc-Andre Barriault22 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Blake Snell22 hours ago

Opts Out Of Deal With San Francisco
Josh Jacobs22 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Drake Maye23 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Tyler Boyd23 hours ago

Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd Listed As Questionable
Tyjae Spears23 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Calvin Ridley23 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Trevin Giles23 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Noah Fant23 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Brian Robinson Jr.23 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Mike Malott23 hours ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Dallas Goedert23 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
DK Metcalf23 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Zach Benson24 hours ago

Could Play Next Week
Jani Hakanpaa24 hours ago

And Connor Dewar Sent On Conditioning Stint
Dmitri Voronkov24 hours ago

Ready For Season Debut Friday
Mathew Barzal24 hours ago

Getting Tests Done For Upper-Body Injury
Vladimir Tarasenko1 day ago

Ready To Go For Saturday
Mark Stone1 day ago

Misses Practice Due To Birth Of Child
Tomás Nosek1 day ago

Tomas Nosek Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
1 day ago

Royals Decline Option On Adam Frazier
1 day ago

Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer Headed To Free Agency
1 day ago

Milwaukee Declines Option On Wade Miley
Lucas Giolito1 day ago

Staying In Boston
Chris Stratton1 day ago

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Returning To Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Staying In Arizona
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado2 days ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz2 days ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton
Derrick Lewis2 days ago

Faces An Unranked Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Edmonton
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron5 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Khamzat Chimaev5 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan5 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov5 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano5 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige6 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy6 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev6 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway6 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Keon Coleman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 9 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Include Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Joe Flacco

Scott Engel’s Lineup Spotlights are an essential weekly feature on RotoBaller.com for the 2024 fantasy football season. Every week, he focuses on players to choose as starting options when you are dealing with tight lineup decisions. The lineup picks included in this rundown are based on Scott’s Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller […]


Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Football Rankings, Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 9 - Terry McLaurin, Chris Olave, Ladd McConkey, Jakobi Meyers

Welcome to WR Matchups to Target for Week 9. Last week’s picks yielded one “in the money” pick (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) in Keon Coleman, giving us 11 such picks over the first eight weeks of the season. Each week, we will use matchup data from PFF to determine which wide receivers to target […]


Brian Thomas Jr - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Who Should I Start? Sunday Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions for Week 9 (2024) - Diontae Johnson, Keon Coleman, Jalen Tolbert, Brian Thomas, Jakobi Myers, Brian Robinson, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Bo Nix

It's almost time for Sunday football. Who Should I Start? Who Should I Sit? Set your optimal fantasy football lineups for Sunday football and Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season. Our free Who Should I Start? tool will help make your fantasy football lineup decisions. Compare up to four NFL players, and we tell […]


Bryce Young - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 9 Includes Jalen Coker, Troy Franklin, Jaylen Wright, Erick All Jr., Kimani Vidal, Blake Corum

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Video: Week 9 Booms, Sleepers, and Streamers - 2024 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Analysis

Let's go, RotoBallers! We are back and dropping fire content for the weekend ahead with our top Week 9 booms, sleepers, and streamers! NFL Network and RotoBaller contributor LaQuan Jones gives in-depth fantasy football advice, breaking down some of his high-upside, sleeper, and value plays as we head into Week 9 of the new fantasy […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Buy Low, Sell High Week 9 Fantasy Football Trade Value Recommendations - Josh Downs, Chris Olave, Cedric Tillman, more

Welcome to Week 9 of the NFL season! We’re deep into the grind where every decision counts more than ever. With injuries piling up and bye weeks affecting lineups, knowing when to buy low or sell high can be the key to revitalizing your team. Whether riding high after a win or looking to bounce […]


Jameis Winston - NFL DFS Picks, Waiver Wire, Fantasy Football Rankings

Week 9 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for Jameis Winston, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye

With quarterbacks beginning to get benched or banged up, some backup quarterbacks are entering lineups and have become viable in Superflex and two-QB leagues. Our Week 9 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024 are here to help you close start-or-sit calls between comparable options. Below, you can see where RotoBaller has key Superflex options […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings (2024) - Week 9 Updates Include Rhamondre Stevenson, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bucky Irving

Incredibly, Week 9 has already kicked off, and Thursday's game is already in the books. It's time to start reviewing your dynasty leagues to decide whether to make a run for the championship or sell off for next year. There were some big trades in the NFL recently, with DeAndre Hopkins heading to Kansas City […]


Chris Olave - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football: Overall Updates Include Marvin Harrison, Chris Olave, Amari Cooper, Jayden Reed, Rachaad White, Nick Chubb

The Week 9 slate brings a must-win situation to many fantasy managers, so it's time to lock in and set optimal fantasy football lineups. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football PPR rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players like Cooper Kupp, T.J. Hockenson, Jaylen Waddle, Tank Bigsby, Jalen McMillan, […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 FLEX Rankings for Fantasy Football (RB, WR, TE) - Updates Include Jalen McMillan, Xavier Worthy, Calvin Ridley, Josh Downs, Kareem Hunt, DJ Moore

The fantasy football playoffs will be here before we know it, so if you need a few wins to secure your spot and are looking for lineup advice, you have come to the right place. We're here to help with our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Comparing two flex […]


Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Week 9 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football: RB Updates Include Tank Bigsby, Chuba Hubbard, Tyrone Tracy, Chase Brown, Rico Dowdle, JK Dobbins

The running back position has seemingly been the most consistent in fantasy football this season, but things can change in a hurry, so it's important to set optimal lineups each week. Let's get to crucial start-or-sit decisions with help from our updated Week 9 fantasy football running back rankings for 2024. Where do key RBs […]


Cedric Tillman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 9 Wide Receiver Rankings for Fantasy Football: WR Updates Include Cedric Tillman, Darnell Mooney, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs, Jaylen Waddle, more

Ahead of the Week 9 NFL slate, the wide receiver position is the deepest in fantasy football, but that can lead to troubling start-or-sit decisions, especially when comparing two flex-level WR options. We're here to assist with our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dive into the rankings […]


Cole Kmet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Week 9 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football: TE Updates Include Cade Otton, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Tucker Kraft, Sam LaPorta

Tight ends showed out last week on National Tight End Day, so hopefully, the momentum continues for the tough position to analyze and navigate. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football tight end rankings for 2024 to help you make tough start-or-sit decisions. Let's dig into the rankings to find out […]