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2016 Sleeper Series - Devin Funchess

What do you get when you couple one of the NFL’s most dynamic quarterbacks in the league’s most fearful offense with a year of maturation for a previously raw matchup nightmare? Hopefully, an offensive explosion.

Devin Funchess, entering his second season out of Michigan, stands a chiseled 6’5’’ and 236 lbs. He wasn’t expected to take on a large role directly out of college, but when breakout star Kelvin Benjamin was sidelined for the entirety of the 2015 season with a left ACL tear, Funchess became an immediate fantasy sleeper. Casual fans and experts alike expected Funchess to assume a good portion of Benjamin’s heavy load of red zone targets—a load that propelled Benjamin to nine touchdowns in his own rookie season. Thus, with fans salivating over touchdown potential, Funchess shot up fantasy draft boards.

Despite the opportunity that Funchess had, with converting from tight end to wide receiver before his third and final season at Michigan, the 21 year old was simply not polished enough to make an immediate impact on the gridiron. He recorded drops on 8.8% of his targets in his junior season at Michigan, an alarming red flag that signified he was not prepared to be an immediate red-zone threat.

In his first seven games, Funchess averaged 3 targets and 1 reception per game for a total of 90 receiving yards and no touchdowns. According to any metric, the numbers were thoroughly underwhelming, as he provided almost no fantasy production, with an average of .86 fantasy points per game in standard leagues. As a seemingly all-risk no-reward fantasy wideout, his ownership rates plummeted. Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr. were usurping many of the targets and production that was expected to be thrown Funchess’ way with Benjamin out, and even in an explosive offensive attack that spread the wealth, Funchess couldn't consistently stay on the field.

That all changed in Week 9 against Green Bay. Funchess exploded onto the scene, having a breakout game with three receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown. The Green Bay game cemented quarterback Cam Newton’s trust in his rookie wide receiver, and in the last nine games of the season, Funchess averaged 4.67 targets and 2.67 receptions per game, compiling 383 total receiving yards and five touchdowns. For fantasy purposes, he averaged 7.1 fantasy points per game in those final nine games. All told, Funchess saw marked improvement throughout his rookie campaign. His drop percentage fell to 6.4% and, therefore, it can only be expected that he will morph into a more reliable option to help reduce the workload of TE Greg Olsen and the returning Benjamin.

But couldn't Olsen, Benjamin, and Ginn Jr. prevent a Funchess breakout? In a traditional sense, yes. In a logical sense, not necessarily. Fantasy football tradition and custom holds that it does not make sense to hold onto a receiver who is 3rd or 4th on the depth chart of his own team. After all, it is fair to conclude that a player will not put out valuable fantasy production as a WR3 or  top 50 RB/WR production on your fantasy team if he barely even breaks the rotation on his actual NFL team. However, typical fantasy football custom doesn’t apply in this case, because Carolina is not a typical football team. Last season, Cam Newton threw 35 touchdown passes to eight different players, with 10 of those TD passes going to Ted Ginn Jr.. It is not reasonable to assume that Ginn Jr., a 31 year old receiver, will repeat his astounding numbers in this upcoming season; however, it is reasonable to assume that Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP, will continue his stellar dual-threat production. Thus, if Newton is able to repeat his production and throws 35 touchdowns again in 2016, Ginn Jr.’s 10 touchdowns may be split among the remaining receivers, leaving Funchess to claim a larger share of the TD pie (more than his five last season), even with Benjamin’s return from injury.

Additionally, Olsen and Benjamin figure to be the focus of the opposition’s defense, which will probably leave the 6’5” Funchess in matchup mismatches with slower linebackers or smaller cornerbacks. The latter coverage matchup is more likely, especially if Olsen lines up on the inside and sees coverage from linebackers, so expect Funchess to have the opportunity to score against smaller cornerbacks in the red-zone.

With another offseason under his belt, Funchess may come out more adept and skillful than ever before. Head Coach Ron Rivera has praised Funchess’ development, saying Funchess is currently “light years ahead of where he was as a rookie,” which bodes well for his future fantasy production.

Devin Funchess is currently being drafted at 13.01 on fantasy football calculator as the 56th wide receiver off the board making for a nice sleeper with high touchdown upside in a young and explosive offense for the Carolina Panthers. Funchess has WR2 upside and is being drafted as a WR5, making him one of the more intriguing sleepers this summer.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!




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