This article continues off our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each team in the offseason and project what the team will do in the upcoming season.

One might be surprised to learn the young Buccaneer offense had the fifth-most yards per game last season (375.9), but their 342 points was 20^th in the league thanks to tying for the most penalties in the league (143) while posting a -5 turnover margin. In other words, they have lots of potential and talent, but will need new head coach Dirk Koetter (who is retaining play-calling duties) to run a tight ship.

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2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers At A Glance

 
We start with last season’s #1 overall pick, Jameis Winston. He performed well on the field, with his determination epitomized by a crazy 20-yard run on 3^rd and 19 while down three against the Falcons with 2:47 left in the game. This sums up his on-field as a leader, let alone his off-field charisma and poise earning him points within the locker room.

Unfortunately, these intangible traits don’t really net you fantasy points. Winston did eclipse 4,000 passing yards in his rookie season, but it came with a 22:15 TD/INT ratio as much of his QB13 value was generated by six rushing TDs (second-best for the position). Winston is not strong enough of a runner to have good odds at replicating that, though his bootleg calls were spot-on. While he should grow in his second season as a quarterback, his fantasy prospects don’t appear poised for a big jump. I'll project him as QB16 overall for now.

His pass-catchers are headlined by their 2014 first-round pick, Mike Evans. While he houses some serious talent, he posted an NFC-leading 15 drops en route to a disappointing 74-1,206-3 season. Despite being Tampa’s only legitimate receiving threat for many weeks due to injuries, Evans was unable to convert the additional targets into fantasy profits. That said, Evans is still a low-end WR1 as last season’s three-TD total is sure to regress. How about Vincent Jackson? The vet appeared in 10 games in his age-32 season, delivering a mediocre 33-543-3 line in them. That should help savvy fantasy GMs on draft day if people see him as “over-the-hill”, as there’s little reason to think V-Jax can’t turn in another 1,000-yard season with five TDs or so as a WR3. The man logged 16 games in his prior four seasons, so his health shouldn't be a liability.

Now the tight end picture is a messy one, as Austin Seferian-Jenkins is still seen by many as the starting tight end. ASJ not only has quite the checkered bill of health, but has reports of mental lapses swirling around him that are encapsulated by his getting kicked out of a June practice by head coach Dirk Koetter. My money is on Cameron Brate, a Harvard product, to draw the start after showing strong chemistry with Winston while ASJ was absent (and also catching 23 of 30 targets vs. ASJ’s 21-for-39 rate). Who’d have thought this is where we’d be after ASJ’s incredible 5-110-2 Week 1, but here we are. That said, ASJ’s raw talent is worth a late pick should he get his head on straight.

Winston’s third-best receiver has to be running back Charles Sims, who had the seventh-most targets (70) and receptions (51) among running backs last season. His 561 receiving yards were fourth-best and his four TDs were tied for second-most, while he also averaged a sick 4.9 yards per carry on the ground (107 rushes, 529 yards). Should the opportunity arise for him to start, he would be a solid RB3 in standard formats and should be a nice RB2 in PPR leagues.

Standing in his way, and rightfully so, is none other than the Douggernaut. Doug Martin logged 1,402 rushing yards with a 4.9 YPC figure to match Sims, while crossing the goal line six times on the ground and once through the air (33 catches, 271 receiving yards). While he isn’t nearly as polished in the passing game (blocking or receiving) as Sims, he’s a strong runner who recently signed a five-year deal and should make for a nice standard-league asset out of the second round. He's a low-end RB1 in standard leagues and a high RB2 with PPR scoring.

The Bucs also made a splash by trading up into the second round to select Roberto Aguayo. That's right, a kicker! While plenty of his strengths are unrelated to his fantasy prospects, such as being able to pin teams inside the 20 on kickoffs, he did have a 100% conversion rate on field goals from 39 yards or less in his three years at Florida State. He’s a fine last-round kicker selection, but you certainly don’t need to reach in your fantasy draft like Tampa Bay did.

How about the defense? Well, it has some stars for sure in DT Gerald McCoy and OLB Lavonte David, as well as an emerging MLB in Kwon Alexander, but issues with their secondary led to being ranked 26^th in Pass DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) against a strong ninth-best rush rank. They hope that the additions of free-agent Brent Grimes and first-round pick Vernon Hargreaves III can provide answers at cornerback while second-round pick Noah Spence looks to break the Tampa-DE curse (Adrian Clayborn? Da’Quan Bowers?). Also, let it be known that Bradley McDougald has an awesome name that is only surpassed by his nickname, “Scottish Thunder”. No fantasy relevance here, but you should be aware of this awesomeness.

So what about their 2016 schedule? Well, it’s rough. Now strength of schedule is a hotly-contested metric, and I suggest not buying hard into it. That said, it's a data point that some utilize so here are the projection preseason ranks per position for fantasy points allowed:

QB: 30^th            RB: 2^nd             WR: 32^nd             TE: 3^rd

 
2016 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SCHEDULE

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