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Nick Mariano provides an overview of the fantasy outlook for the New York Giants in 2016 with a position-by-position breakdown and ADP analysis.
This article continues off our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each team in the offseason and project what the team will do in the upcoming season.
Today we take a look at the New York Giants.
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Offseason Moves
Offseason Acquisitions: HC Ben McAdoo (promoted from OC), RB Bobby Rainey, DT Damon Harrison, DE Olivier Vernon, DB Janoris Jenkins.
Offseason Departures: HC Tom Coughlin, WR Rueben Randle, WR Hakeem Nicks, DT Markus Kuhn, DE Robert Ayers, LB Jon Beason, DB Prince Amukamara.
Quarterback
There aren’t many questions here, as the 35-year-old Eli Manning is set to lead an up-and-coming offense which looked as though it found an identity down the stretch last season. Manning took a step forward, looking much more comfortable in Year Two of Ben McAdoo’s hurry-up offense to the tune of 35 touchdowns against only 14 interceptions and 4,432 yards.
How about that system? After two down seasons in 2012 and 2013 where he combined for 44 TDs and 42 INTs while averaging 3,884 passing yards, he has popped off for a combined 65 TDs and only 28 INTs while surpassing 4,400 passing yards in each of the McAdoo years. And while he’s 35, the Mississippi product has played in all 16 games in every season since 2005 for the G-Men, meaning fantasy owners should not feel overly concerned with his age or durability. B-Eli-eve in his value as the QB10 right now, with an average ADP of 89.7 at the moment.
Running Backs
The Giants employed an RBBC (Running Back by Committee) in their first 12 games, consisting of Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams, Orleans Darkwa and pass-catcher Shane Vereen. There wasn’t anyone all that useful out of the lot, as the Giants only combined for five rushing TDs all season (mostly due to leaning on an ineffective Williams in short-yardage scenarios, who averaged a horrid 2.9 yards per carry). This changed in their last four games though, as the committee was scrapped and Jennings was given the rock. He rushed 79 times for 442 yards (5.59 YPC) and two TDs alongside seven catches for 89 yards.
This has many, including this writer, thinking that the Giants have seen the light and will ride that gameplan into 2016. Jennings is one of the best values as of now, with a current average ADP of 97.8 that pegs him as the RB37 in standard leagues. It’s all upside at that price. Shane Vereen is currently the 48th RB off of the board in PPR leagues (average ADP 136.3) despite racking up the fifth-most targets (81) and receptions (59) out of all RBs, making him another solid value pick. Paul Perkins was a fifth-round pick this season, but shouldn’t be on redraft radars unless something happens to Rashad Jennings (which is feasible).
Wide Receivers
The receiving corps is headlined by one of the best players in the game, Odell Beckham Jr., who is heading into his third season. All he did in 15 games last season was post a 96-1,450-13 line with five of those TDs going for 40+ yards. There’s no stopping this man, and he shouldn’t ever see the second round in fantasy drafts.
With Victor Cruz still dealing with a groin issue, second-round WR Sterling Shepard is the clear-cut #2 receiver for the Giants heading into 2016. Shepard was likely due for this role anyhow, with Cruz operating as the slot man, but it’s questionable that Cruz will ever be 100% again. Shepard is currently the 40th WR off of the board with an average ADP of 95.8, which does have that “rookie-hype” baked into the cost.
That said, he’s still got a nice opportunity to potentially post a 70-950-6 season, but don’t go mistaking his ceiling for his floor. Take him as a WR4 who could surprise. Leave someone else to chase Cruz’s name and memory. Dwayne Harris may be a decent flex play in deep leagues that count return yardage, especially if he plays up as the #3 WR if Cruz is out.
Tight Ends
In a nutshell, this will probably be a situation to avoid. Larry Donnell was re-signed this offseason after recovering from a neck injury that ended his 2015 season, and reportedly looks to be moving at full speed in training camp. He will battle Will Tye, who emerged after Donnell went down to the tune of 32 catches in NYG’s last seven games, for first-team reps in this offense. Neither is a championship-caliber TE on their own, and it looks as though they’ll just eat into each other’s production all season long.
Defense
The defense has certainly improved, adding run-stuffer Damon Harrison to replace Markus Kuhn and Olivier Vernon to step in for Robert Ayers. Jason Pierre-Paul was still effective on the edge, using his plus-athleticism to still make plays despite rocking a club on one hand. Their DBs are solid as well, with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and newcomer Janoris Jenkins patrolling the outside with Landon Collins and Darian Thompson over the top.
Their weakness is their LB corps, which leaves them most vulnerable to tight ends and pass-catching RBs (their defense rated 27th and 21st, respectively, against these positions per FootballOutsiders DVOA). This is not a defense one should target for steady ownership, but may have the occasional stream-worthy game if the pass-rush steps up (their 23 sacks last season ranked 30th in the league).
Kicker
Josh Brown was impressive, tying for the league lead with a 93.75% conversion rate (30-for-32) on his field goals in 2015. He was a perfect 3-for-3 on kicks from 50+ yards, with his only two misses coming from within the 40-49 yard range (8-for-10). He was 44-for-45 on extra points as well. On a team that moves the ball quickly with an above-average offense and a suspect defense, Brown should have a good chance at replicating his strong season.
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