RADIO
This article kicks off our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each team in the offseason and project what the team will do in the upcoming season.
Offseason Acquisitions: QB Brock Osweiller, RB Lamar Miller, and WR Will Fuller, Offseason Departures: RB Arian Foster, WR Nate Washington
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Quarterback
In what can easily be described as the most surprising coup of the offseason, the Houston Texans ponied up serious cash to sign free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler away from the Denver Broncos. The good thing about signing Osweiler to the Texans is that he has to be viewed as an upgrade over any of the teams previous quarterbacks the last three seasons. The bad thing about this acquisition is that Osweiler really only has four games of true NFL experience.
For fantasy purposes, you’re likely going to need to avoid rostering Osweiler unless you play in a two-quarterback league. Sure there’s some upside, but I’d much rather take my chances on a guy like Tyrod Taylor or Jameis Winston, players we have already seen be fantasy relevant in a small sample size. Luckily, however, Osweiler is good enough to get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins and that’s the only thing most fantasy owners will need to worry about in 2016.
Running Backs
The Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins essentially ended up swapping Arian Foster and Lamar Miller with each player switching teams this summer. Now I know some non-believers out there will clamor about how it took Miller forever to become a fantasy darling and that he doesn’t really break many big plays. I don’t really have a counterargument for that but what I can tell you is the following.
The Miami Dolphins were dead last in rushing attempts last season with 344 yet even limited touches, Lamar Miller finished as the 6th best fantasy running back in standard scoring. Apply his numbers to a PPR format and he ends up as the 4th best back in fantasy. Houston, Miller’s newfound home for the upcoming season, ran the ball a w hopping 472 times, the fifth most in the NFL. Even if you don’t believe that Lamar Miller is a superstar running back, the numbers are clear in his opportunities are only going to grow on his new team. Miller’s current ADP has him going 7th among running backs, 16th overall and I actually think that’s a little low. I’d take him over the likes of Devonta Freeman and would most certainly consider drafting him at the end of the first round as my RB1.
Wide Receivers
The emergence of DeAndre Hopkins over the last two seasons has him being touted as a mid-range first round pick heading into 2016. If you’re looking for me to argue that strategy I’m sorry to say you’ll be very disappointed. Like I said earlier, the “shaky” quarterback situation in Houston is a bit over exaggerated. Here’s a list of the quarterbacks DeAndre Hopkins has had throwing to him throughout his career thus far: Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden and Brian Hoyer. If that’s not the literally translation of “shaky” I have no idea what is. All of that is to say that I wouldn’t worry about Brock Osweiller being able to get the ball to Hopkins with frequency.
The much more interesting storyline of Houston’s group of wide receivers is the question of who will emerge as their new number two wide receiver. Ironically, the Texans had that problem with their previous stud wideout in Andre Johnson, the man that Hopkins supplanted as the top option. Nevertheless, here we are again with the same dilemma.
The early favorite to lock up that number two spot is rookie Will Fuller out of Notre Dame. Fuller’s only true competition right now is Cecil Shorts, a player who has never really strung together enough consistency to rely on in fantasy. Obviously Fuller holds more value in dynasty league drafts but he’s most certainly worth a flier in all other formats. I don't believe that Osweiller is good enough to make both Hopkins and Fuller fantasy relevant but it’s definitely something you should consider in the late rounds of your draft.
Tight Ends
The Texans are a black hole at the tight end position with the likes of C.J. Fiedorowics and Ryan Griffin on their roster. You can forget about finding value at this position in Houston.
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