This article continues our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year.
Today's piece will take a look at a team that has been on the receiving end of more playoff jokes than any other team in the league in the Cincinnati Bengals.
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Offseason Moves
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Tyler Boyd, WR Brandon LaFell
Offseason Departures: WR Mohamed Sanu, WR Marvin Jones
Quarterback
Andy Dalton, or the "Red Rifle" as he's ever so fondly referred to, tends to keep scraping by as an NFL starter despite never really doing anything overly exciting. Sure, his best numbers back in 2013 of 4,293 yards and 33 touchdowns were impressive but even a broken clock is right twice a day, right? I don't mean to be overly harsh on Dalton it's just that a lot of the "wait on QB" truthers out there look at Dalton like he's some late round savior when in reality he's only really had one stellar fantasy year.
Don't get me wrong, I totally understand the strategy in waiting on the position, especially if you're willing to double down and give yourself two shots at it by pairing two late round passers together. It's just that I think there are plenty of other, better options out there than Andy Dalton. Even off of a down year, give me Matt Ryan, a quarterback who is an infinitely better NFL player than Dalton. Or what about Matthew Stafford? Stafford finished with just five less fantasy points than Aaron Rodgers last year, ranking him as the ninth best fantasy QB on the year.
Dalton's "upside" is often over exaggerated due to Cincinnati being a good real life football team and the presence of A.J. Green. In fact, I would argue that Dalton might actually be worse than usual this year now that he's missing both Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones. Dalton is fine as an NFL starter, but there are plenty of more intriguing options out there for fantasy purposes.
Running Backs
I'd love to tell you that I'm over Jeremy Hill breaking my heart last year, but that would be a lie. I was a big proponent of Hill taking the next step to being one of the top tier running backs after 2015, but alas he took a step backwards and the Bengals transition into more of a running back by committee. What this means for 2016 is, we could be looking at a situation where both Hill and Giovani Bernard are useful fantasy assets, it'll just be difficult trying to determine when each player will go off.
Luckily, there's a lot more clarity when you start taking different scoring systems into account. Hill is a more traditional runner who has a nose for the end zone, giving him the advantage in standard scoring. Bernard on the other hand, is the clear favorite on passing downs, netting him the edge in PPR formats. That seems straight forward enough right? Target Hill in standard and Bernard in PPR and be on your merry way.
I wish it were that simple but the sad truth is it's going to be very difficult to rely on either player as a consistent starter regardless of format. I think both players are flex plays in their respective scoring advantages with neither guy having a clearer path to being an RB2 without the other getting hurt or traded. Fortunately, you won't need to draft either of them as such since they're both going late enough to stash as your RB3. You'll often hear fantasy analysts say that rankings aren't a reflection of the order players are expected to finish but rather the order in which they should be selected. The running back situation in Cincy is the perfect example of that methodology. Hill and Bernard won't BOTH finish outside the top 20 at running back but good luck figuring out which one will excel in August.
Wide Receivers
There are two ways to look at the departures of Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones. The first is that their absence will allow defenses to hone in on A.J. Green, lowering his fantasy value accordingly. The other is that the Bengals will just force feed Green the ball, making him even better without other wideouts pecking into his target total. Anyone who tells you they know which of those theories are true is lying to you.
The truth is, no one really knows what the loss of those players will do to A.J. Green. He could be better, he could be worse, so it's best to just leave him as is. He's a borderline first round pick who firmly belongs in the same class as Dez Bryant and DeAndre Hopkins. I'm cool with those three receivers going in any order in any format; it's all a matter of personal preference. Green is a stud of a player and won't crush your season as your WR1. Don't really need to say much more about Green at this point.
Instead, we should focus on the prospect of rookie Tyler Boyd taking over the roles Sanu and Jones left behind. It's hard for me to believe that Andy Dalton is going to get a rookie receiver involved in the offense enough to warrant fantasy relevance but I can't ignore the fact that both Sanu and Jones were indeed relevant throughout their careers. Boyd definitely has enough talent to dominate as the number two receiver in this offense but unfortunately for him, there are just too many other rookie receivers I prefer over him. Guys like Sterling Shepard, Corey Coleman, and Michael Thomas all have clearer paths to success than Boyd. Unless you're in a keeper or dynasty league, Boyd is likely the odd man out when it comes to expecting fantasy stardom out of a rookie wideout.
Speaking of odd men out, new Bengals signee Brandon LaFell isn't going to be a factor in this offense. He wasn't one in Carolina, he was barely a WR2 in New England (WR19), and I don't think the Red Rifle is the savior he's been waiting for.
Tight End
Of all the later round tight ends to wait on, the one I will definitely not be owning this year is Tyler Eifert. Trust me, the upside of his touchdowns are definitely enticing but his rough injury woes scare me. Eifert hasn't played all 16 games in any of his three seasons in the NFL and is already in danger of missing week one due to an ankle injury. I know he had 13 touchdowns in 13 games last year but even that isn't enough for me to hitch my fantasy hopes to someone who can't stay on the field. It's honestly as simple as knowing that there will always be someone in my league who likes Eifert more than I do, meaning they'll draft him way before I'm willing to. That's totally fine by me, I'll wait another round or two and grab Antonio Gates instead.
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