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2016 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Outfield, Part 1 (March)

This is the fourth and final update to our outfield staff rankings. Once again, I was joined by colleagues Kyle Bishop, Bill Dubiel, Brad Johnson, Nick Mariano, Max Petrie, and Harris Yudin.

In case you missed them, you can see our updated March tiered rankings and analysis breaking down our thoughts for catcher, first base, second base, shortstop and third base. Let's cut the foreplay and dive right in.

Editor's note: Make sure to also bookmark our Fantasy Baseball Rankings Assistant. The draft prep tool consolidates all our staff ranks in one easy place, shows ADP industry comparisons, and identifies the rankings risers/fallers. Sort our rankings by positional tiers, AL/NL only, dynasty, points leagues, top prospects and more.

 

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Outfield (Tiers 1-4)

Tier 1

While the first tier has baseball's two best hitters, it's not too interesting to discuss. You know who Trout and Harper are. I placed Trout ahead of Harper simply because he has been more consistent; as crazy as it sounds, Harper has more upside in my opinion. Just for eye candy, here are their 5x5 lines from last year: .299/41/90/101/11 (Trout) and .330/42/118/99/6 (Harper). In any event, you cannot go wrong with either barring injury. If you like to gamble, Harper is a fine choice ahead of Trout.

Tier 2

In the second tier, one addition should be Chris Davis who played 30 games in RF last year. Due to many not knowing he is OF eligible, you can likely get good value. Leaving out his 2014 - during which he did not have a Therapeutic Use Exemption from MLB for an Adderall-like drug and was also battling an oblique injury - he posted lines of .286/53/103/138/4 in 2013 and .262/47/100/117/2 in 2015. While his 2014 is a red flag, the upside is enormous and I value him around the same as Jose Bautista. The other under-ranked player in the second tier is AJ Pollock. His 162 game averages the past two years are .311/19/107/70/36, and he bested those numbers last year. His elbow is a concern, so make sure he is healthy as Opening Day approaches, but those numbers are spectacular.

Two players ranked a little too highly by my peers in the second tier are McCutchen and Springer. McCutchen's steals have declined from 27 to 18 to 11 the past three years. He has not hit more than 25 homers or cracked 100 runs or RBIs (in a lineup that is largely similar). While it's possible that he could have dropped off a bit last year due to an early injury he played through, it's also possible he is just enduring a bit of a decline. .300/23/95/95/10 is a slash line you could approach or possibly beat with Pollock, Betts, or even approach with Cain or Marte who will go much later. For Springer, I have trouble envisioning a player who hits for a high average with great power; if he cuts down on his high K-rate as he did last year, it seems he would lose some power as he did last year. And while he ran more than his rookie year, he still didn't nearly approach his minors numbers in terms of steals. Add in that he is coming off injury, and he is being rated a little too highly for my tastes.

Tier 3

In the third tier, two players I like slightly more than my peers are Carlos Gomez and Lorenzo Cain. Carlos Gomez had a down year last year battling an injury. At 30, he is unlikely to have a career year. Nevertheless, he has a 162-game average over the last three years of .276/24/94/80/36. The most encouraging sign from last year is that Houston let him run; he stole 10 bases in 41 games for them. In a good lineup, he is being undervalued. Lorenzo Cain has had an issue staying healthy, but he has shown speed (28 SBs each of the last two years despite averaging 137 games), the ability to hit for average (.301 and .307), and surprising power last year (16 homers in 140 games). While he is an injury risk, his batting average and steals provide a nice floor if healthy.

Tier 4

In the fourth tier, I am targeting Michael Brantley even though he is coming off injury. Brantley has a 162 game average the past two years of .319/20/90/101/22. Those numbers are an optimistic line for even Andrew McCutchen. With him continuing to beat his recovery timeline, an April return is looking likely and he's too good not to gamble on. Corey Dickerson, on the other hand, was not dinged enough by my peers after his trade out of Colorado. He has a career 1.085 OPS at Coors and a .695 OPS outside of Coors and is coming off an injury-riddled season. Matt Holliday is also ranked too highly. He's 36, coming off an atrocious and injury-plagued year, and he even showed a tick of decline in 2014. At his age, the upside does not appear to be there to offset the risk that the decline is real.

Lastly, while not fitting in one specific tier, Schwarber and Soler (and possibly even Fowler) take a hit from Fowler joining the Cubs. The Cubs now have at least four starting caliber outfielders - Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Fowler. Javier Baez has been playing some outfield as well. While Schwarber can play catcher too, barring a trade or injury, it is hard to find a clear path to everyday playing time for Schwarber and Soler at the very least. It is a situation to monitor as the season approaches.

Check back tomorrow for my late round targets.

 

Outfield Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)

Rank Tier Name Brad Max Kyle Nick Harris Jeff Bill
1 1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 1 2 1 2
2 1 Bryce Harper 2 2 2 2 1 2 1
3 2 Giancarlo Stanton 4 3 3 3 3 3 4
4 2 Andrew McCutchen 3 5 4 4 4 6 3
5 2 Jose Bautista 8 6 6 5 5 7 5
6 2 George Springer 6 7 5 6 6 9 7
7 2 Mookie Betts 5 4 9 7 7 5 10
8 2 A.J. Pollock 7 9 8 8 11 4 6
9 2 Starling Marte 10 8 7 12 10 8 8
10 3 J.D. Martinez 9 12 10 9 8 12 11
11 2 Ryan Braun 13 10 11 11 13 10 9
12 3 Justin Upton 12 11 12 10 14 13 13
13 3 Charlie Blackmon 11 14 13 13 19 15 14
14 3 Lorenzo Cain 17 18 15 16 12 11 12
15 3 Nelson Cruz 18 15 16 15 9 16 16
16 3 Carlos Gonzalez 19 16 19 18 18 18 18
17 3 Adam Jones 15 20 21 14 23 19 15
18 3 Jason Heyward 14 17 17 20 16 22 21
19 3 Carlos Gomez 21 13 23 19 22 14 19
20 3 Kyle Schwarber 22 19 14 21 15 25 17
21 3 Yoenis Cespedes 20 21 20 17 17 20 20
22 4 Yasiel Puig 16 23 18 23 25 21 24
23 4 Hunter Pence 34 22 22 22 32 23 23
24 4 Jacoby Ellsbury 26 32 41 30 20 24 25
25 4 Curtis Granderson 29 33 28 27 28 30 26
26 4 Alex Gordon 23 31 29 35 26 35 29
27 4 Kole Calhoun 28 24 30 34 31 33 28
28 4 David Peralta 35 25 24 25 38 29 32
29 4 Christian Yelich 27 36 35 28 21 32 36
30 4 Brett Gardner 39 26 27 32 33 31 31
31 4 Corey Dickerson 25 28 32 26 37 54 22
32 4 Adam Eaton 37 37 26 24 34 28 39
33 4 Michael Brantley 56 27 37 40 27 17 27
34 4 Joc Pederson 41 41 25 37 24 34 35
35 4 Matt Holliday 43 30 31 29 43 45 30
36 4 Gregory Polanco 32 29 42 42 44 26 36
37 4 Shin-Soo Choo 42 35 38 31 30 39 40
38 4 Billy Hamilton 33 40 55 51 29 27 34
39 5 Michael Conforto 40 34 40 47 36 37 42
40 5 Josh Reddick 31 43 36 39 53 38 38
41 5 Hanley Ramirez 24 48 44 33 45 44 46
42 5 Stephen Piscotty 48 39 39 36 39 52 44
43 5 Randal Grichuk 49 44 34 38 54 43 45
44 5 Matt Kemp 36 45 45 41 52 49 41
45 5 Jorge Soler 63 38 46 49 40 46 33
46 5 Dexter Fowler 44 42 43 44 47 53 43
47 6 Ben Zobrist 30 52 33 56 55 64 50
48 6 Delino Deshields 50 49 49 46 41 60 53
49 6 Ben Revere 57 51 58 53 42 42 48
50 6 Billy Burns 38 54 48 59 50 55 55
51 6 Kevin Pillar 58 55 53 48 49 47 51
52 6 Steven Souza 52 56 47 45 46 56 61
53 6 Gerardo Parra 45 50 59 52 56 48 60
54 6 Evan Gattis 51 47 57 43 57 72 49
55 6 Ender Inciarte 68 46 56 54 61 51 47
56 6 Wil Myers 74 60 66 57 35 40 58
57 6 Marcell Ozuna 47 57 51 60 65 58 57
58 6 Jayson Werth 60 59 50 70 67 41 52
59 6 Khris Davis 46 62 54 55 58 62 62
60 6 Melky Cabrera 53 53 60 65 69 63 54
61 7 Mark Trumbo 54 78 73 58 59 36 74
62 7 Aaron Altherr 65 69 87 69 88 65
63 7 Colby Rasmus 62 75 67 63 51 61 72
64 7 Jay Bruce 67 70 69 50 64 66 69
65 7 Carlos Beltran 70 67 64 62 70 59 66
66 7 Odubel Herrera 64 63 61 61 86 67 56
67 7 Byron Buxton 72 76 70 73 48 50 70
68 7 Brad Miller 59 66 52 71 71 71 76
69 7 Cameron Maybin 79 64 63 64 72 70 59
70 7 Eddie Rosario 69 61 68 78 68 68 67
71 7 Aaron Hicks 66 68 72 66 78 69 63
72 7 Rusney Castillo 75 58 65 72 89 57 68
73 8 Danny Valencia 61 65 71 68 80 81 73
74 8 Denard Span 73 73 88 76 60 65 71
75 8 Domingo Santana 71 71 62 74 66 76 87
76 8 Brandon Moss 76 77 77 67 74 74 64
77 8 Nori Aoki 77 72 82 80 62 75 88
78 8 Kevin Kiermaier 78 84 80 82 73 73 80
79 8 Hyun-soo Kim 55 92 75 77 - 85 92
80 8 Marlon Byrd 80 79 76 85 84 80 75
81 9 Yasmany Tomas 97 74 83 75 81 78 82
82 9 Brock Holt 79 83 78 86 94 91 79
83 9 Derek Dietrich 80 96 74 87 - 88 81
84 8 Chris Colabello 93 82 86 79 75 90 86
85 9 Eduardo Escobar - 88 79 89 - 84 89
86 9 Austin Jackson 72 95 95 83 76 87 95
87 9 Jackie Bradley Jr. 96 97 85 88 77 77 90
88 9 Nick Markakis 87 91 94 91 79 93
89 9 Franklin Gutierrez 95 100 91 81 - 79 91
90 9 Leonys Martin 94 93 96 94 63 93 94
91 9 Mark Cahna 98 89 84 109 83 86 78
92 9 Andre Ethier 85 87 89 90 99 83 96
93 9 Dalton Pompey 86 80 81 102 87 97 98
94 9 Jarrod Dyson 106 81 93 84 85 94 -
95 9 Alex Rios 88 90 102 98 96 - 84
96 9 Avisail Garcia - 85 100 103 82 - 97
97 9 Rajai Davis 100 - 97 92 - 89 -
98 9 Desmond Jennings 99 86 103 100 90 92 -
99 9 Josh Hamilton 91 94 - 99 91 100
100 9 Anthony Gose - 102 98 105 93 96 77
101 9 Preston Tucker 107 99 90 97 - 83
102 9 Oswaldo Arcia - 105 - 107 100 82 85
103 9 Chris Coghlan 84 103 99 93 - 101
104 9 Michael Taylor 89 102 92 108 95 98 99
105 9 Adam Duvall 90 104 106 101 92 99 -
106 9 Coco Crisp 92 106 107 106 98 95 -
107 9 Rymer Liriano 105 101 101 104 - 100 -
108 9 Will Venable - 108 109 95 97 -
109 9 Nomar Mazara 103 - 108 96 - - -
110 9 Angel Pagan 102 99 105 110 - - -
111 9 Abraham Almonte 104 - - - - - -
112 9 Seth Smith 101 107 104 111 - - -

 

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