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2016 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Outfield (January, Part 1)

Welcome to the next installment of our January ranking breakdowns! If you’re like us here at RotoBaller, you’ve been huddled around the stove awaiting that precious heat for a while now. While there are still some free agent dominoes yet to fall, we've seen quite the flurry of moves.

This round of rankings features seven of our experts. They are Brad Johnson, Max Petrie, Kyle Bishop, Harris Yudin, Jeff Kahntroff, Bill Dubiel, and Nick Mariano. Today we'll cover second base. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading. You can also read part two of my outfield analysis (tiers 6-9).

By the way, be sure to also see our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.

 

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield

Tier 1

The top tier is a no-brainer-- Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are the clear-cut top two outfielders. Both are on the right side of 25 with an Most Valuable Player award under their belts. I was the only one to rank Harper first - my colleagues all preferred Trout - but you really can't go wrong with either one. Not only are they the best outfielders, but they should the top two overall picks in your draft (although Paul Goldschmidt sneaking in there wouldn't be crazy).

Tier 2

Tier two is made up of eight players. Four of them are seasoned veterans who have earned a spot atop the rankings: Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Bautista and Ryan Braun. The other four are young guys battling their way to the forefront: George Springer, Mookie Betts, A.J. Pollock and Starling Marte. The veterans, and Springer, were in the top 11 of everyone's rankings. Betts (14, Bill), Pollock (18, Harris) and Marte (14, Harris) all had one ranking that fell just below.

The guy I really want to talk about is Pollock. Of course, my ranking him 18th is what sticks out the most upon looking at the rankings. Now, I'm not denying that he had an incredibly impressive 2015 campaign, but where did it come from? He hit 20 home runs in 2015. In 2013 and 2014, respectively, he hit eight and seven. Granted, he had much fewer at-bats, but if you prorate those numbers into the 609 AB he had 2015, you get 11 and 16 - even that would've come as a surprise to me. In 978 AB between 2011 and 2012, Pollock hit 11 HR. And it's not like he was a 20-year-old prospect at the time. That came in his 23- and 24-year-old seasons, and it made sense considering he had above-average grades in hitting and speed, but not power.

As far as speed and batting average go, you can find that from Ben Revere, Delino Deshields or Billy Burns further down the line. Pollock is undoubtedly a talented player who can help you in every category, but ranking him ahead of Braun, who was one stolen base shy of his third career 25/25 season in 2015, and Nelson Cruz, who has hit 40 or more homers in each of the last two years, just doesn't sit well with me. Perhaps I unfairly ranked him as an act of rebellion - he probably belongs in the 12-15 range - but I cannot comprehend him being the sixth best fantasy outfielder. Power is far too important to pass up on early - it's easier to find a combination of speed and average than power and average late in the draft.

Tier 3

Cruz, J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton all made an appearance in someone's top 10, but they are typically seen as third-tier players. I seem to be higher than my fellow rankers on Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez and Yoenis Cespedes, and much lower on Adam Jones. He is only 30 but has seen his batting average and on-base percentage drop with each of the last three years. Additionally, he has essentially stopped running altogether, with just four stolen base attempts in 2015. His 0.24 walk-to-strikeout ratio puts him 130th out of 143 hitters with at least 500 plate appearances. Yes, he will still hit 25-30 homers and drive in 80-90 runs, but the rest of the numbers are concerning, and I cannot trust him over someone like Jason Heyward, who, at just 26 years old, brings 15 HR/25 SB potential and an improved ability to get on base.

Tier 4

The biggest story line of tier four is veterans who had off years in 2015. Yasiel Puig, Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Brantley were all much higher on this list a year ago, and all three are very capable of bouncing back towards the top of the list in 2016. Also in this tier is a group of young bats who could very well break out this year: Kole Calhoun, Christian Yelich, Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler.

My RotoBaller colleagues have yet to join me on the Yelich bandwagon. The 24-year-old owns a minor league career slash line of .311/.386/.497, and over his two full seasons in the minors in 2011 and 2012, he hit 27 HR and posted 52 SB over 862 AB. While his counting stats haven't quite come around in the big leagues, he has hit over .280 with at least a .360 OBP in each of his three seasons in the majors. He is incredibly athletic and has a smooth, fast bat that allows him to find gaps all over the field. He is a mature hitter who should continue to improve all five of his tools, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Miami Marlins' former top prospect posted a stat line of 15 HR, 25 SB and a .300/.370/.440 slash line.

Tier 5

We start to see a bit of a drop-off in the fifth tier. We have some young hitters with untapped potential, a few speedsters and a handful of troubled veterans looking to get back on track. Randal Grichuk is a polarizing player in this tier, with his ranking varying from 34 to 66. My concern with Grichuk is his alarmingly high strikeout rate (31.4% in 2015), and low walk rate (6.3%). He is a talented hitter with an above-average power grade, which is why Kyle understandably likes him so much, I just feel as though guys like Wil Myers and Steven Souza have more upside, and Mark Trumbo and Khris Davis haven proven more in terms of power.

 

Outfield Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball

Rank Tier Name Brad Max Kyle Nick Harris Jeff Bill
1 1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 1 2 1 1
2 1 Bryce Harper 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
3 2 Giancarlo Stanton 4 3 3 3 3 3 4
4 2 Andrew McCutchen 3 4 4 4 4 6 3
5 2 Jose Bautista 8 5 6 5 5 7 5
6 2 George Springer 6 9 5 6 6 9 7
7 2 A.J. Pollock 7 7 8 7 18 4 6
8 2 Mookie Betts 5 6 9 9 7 5 14
9 2 Starling Marte 10 8 7 10 14 8 8
10 2 Ryan Braun 11 10 10 8 9 10 9
11 3 J.D. Martinez 9 13 11 11 11 14 10
12 3 Justin Upton 14 12 12 12 10 12 13
13 3 Nelson Cruz 15 16 15 15 8 16 16
14 3 Charlie Blackmon 13 17 13 13 19 15 15
15 3 Lorenzo Cain 19 20 14 16 15 11 12
16 3 Adam Jones 20 11 21 14 25 19 11
17 3 Carlos Gonzalez 17 18 19 18 12 22 18
18 3 Kyle Schwarber 16 15 16 19 16 25 17
19 3 Carlos Gomez 12 14 24 20 24 13 19
20 3 Yoenis Cespedes 25 21 20 17 13 20 20
21 3 Jason Heyward 18 19 17 24 17 26 21
22 4 Yasiel Puig 23 22 18 25 27 17 24
23 4 Corey Dickerson 22 23 22 22 33 21 22
24 4 Jacoby Ellsbury 24 25 35 29 20 18 25
25 4 Hunter Pence 28 24 23 21 35 23 23
26 4 Brett Gardner 27 27 27 28 31 24 31
27 4 Curtis Granderson 31 33 28 26 23 33 26
28 4 Alex Gordon 26 30 32 33 28 38 29
29 4 Kole Calhoun 29 28 33 32 34 36 28
30 4 David Peralta 36 31 25 27 39 32 32
31 4 Michael Brantley 46 38 37 23 26 34 27
32 4 Matt Holliday 38 29 30 31 43 31 30
33 4 Joc Pederson 34 40 26 38 22 37 35
34 4 Christian Yelich 30 37 39 34 21 35 36
35 4 Billy Hamilton 21 25 45 51 29 28 34
36 4 Jorge Soler 40 32 31 30 38 30 33
37 5 Shin-Soo Choo 35 34 38 37 30 42 40
38 5 Gregory Polanco 42 36 41 44 44 27 36
39 5 Michael Conforto 32 35 40 47 37 40 42
40 5 Adam Eaton 47 42 29 35 57 29 39
41 5 Josh Reddick 33 41 36 41 54 41 38
42 5 Dexter Fowler 44 45 43 39 32 49 43
43 5 Stephen Piscotty 37 39 48 36 40 53 44
44 5 Hanley Ramirez 45 48 44 40 45 48 46
45 5 Matt Kemp 39 49 42 43 53 50 41
46 5 Randal Grichuk 41 46 34 42 66 46 45
47 5 Ben Revere 52 51 49 51 42 45 48
48 6 Steven Souza 53 49 47 48 46 54 61
49 6 Ender Inciarte 57 44 46 53 60 52 47
50 6 Kevin Pillar 62 56 51 49 48 47 51
51 6 Evan Gattis 43 47 55 45 62 73 49
52 6 Delino Deshields 65 50 57 50 41 59 53
53 6 Wil Myers 68 60 56 58 36 43 58
54 6 Jayson Werth 48 62 53 55 67 44 52
55 6 Ben Zobrist 51 52 58 54 55 63 50
56 6 Khris Davis 63 61 52 46 49 51 62
57 6 Billy Burns 60 54 54 59 51 55 55
58 6 Marcell Ozuna 67 57 50 56 64 57 57
59 6 Melky Cabrera 54 53 59 57 76 62 54
60 7 Gerardo Parra 56 55 65 64 69 71 60
61 7 Cameron Maybin 70 59 62 60 73 60 59
62 7 Rusney Castillo 69 58 64 68 75 56 68
63 7 Carlos Beltran 61 68 63 62 81 58 66
64 7 Odubel Herrera 55 66 60 72 85 66 56
65 7 Eddie Rosario 58 65 67 69 68 67 67
66 7 Jay Bruce 64 69 68 63 63 65 69
67 7 Aaron Altherr 59 63 61 61 92 68 65
68 7 Mark Trumbo 77 78 69 70 59 39 74
69 7 Colby Rasmus 71 75 66 65 52 70 72
70 7 Brandon Moss 49 71 72 67 77 74 64
71 7 Byron Buxton 75 77 74 76 47 61 70
72 7 Aaron Hicks 76 67 70 66 71 69 63
73 8 Danny Valencia 50 64 79 73 80 81 73
74 8 Denard Span 74 73 86 75 58 64 71
75 8 Brad Miller 66 70 71 77 72 72 76
76 8 Nori Aoki 73 72 80 78 56 75 88
77 8 Marlon Byrd 79 79 73 74 88 80 75
78 8 Kevin Kiermaier 83 84 75 82 74 73 80
79 8 Domingo Santana 80 82 77 85 66 76 87
80 8 Chris Colabello 93 80 84 71 78 90 86
81 8 Brock Holt 78 83 81 80 93 91 79
82 8 Jackie Bradley Jr. 95 96 83 86 79 77 90
83 9 Leonys Martin 94 93 95 95 61 93 -
84 9 Yasmany Tomas - 74 96 84 82 78 82
85 9 Derek Dietrich 82 95 76 81 - 88 81
86 9 Jarrod Dyson - 81 94 104 50 94 -
87 9 Mark Canha - 89 82 89 84 86 78
88 9 Austin Jackson 72 94 88 79 91 87 -
89 9 Anthony Gose - 97 85 83 87 82 77
90 9 Dalton Pompey 86 76 78 97 86 97 -
91 9 Desmond Jennings - 86 - 99 70 92 -
92 9 Preston Tucker - 85 91 90 - 85 83
93 9 Eduardo Escobar - 88 89 87 - 84 89
94 9 Andre Ethier 85 90 87 92 99 83 -
95 9 Franklin Gutierrez 94 97 90 91 - 79 91
96 9 Avisail Garcia - 87 98 100 83 - -
97 9 Alex Rios 88 91 99 96 95 - 84
98 9 Nick Markakis 87 92 93 94 90 100 -
99 9 Michael Taylor 89 98 92 88 94 98 -
100 9 Chris Coghlan 84 99 100 93 - -
101 9 Josh Hamilton 91 102 97 98 98 89 -
102 9 Adam Duvall 90 100 - 102 89 99 -
103 9 Oswaldo Arcia - 101 - 103 100 96 85
104 9 Coco Crisp 92 102 - 101 97 95 -
105 9 Will Venable - 104 - 105 96 - -
106 9 Seth Smith - 103 - - - - -

 

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