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2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher (Part 2)

We're back again for part two of the first look into our starting pitcher rankings. Brad, Max, Kyle, and I just love baseball so much that we can't stay away from it. Just to remind you all, our rankings were submitted on December 6th before the Hot Stove went berserk and caused this late December heat wave to ripple out (seriously, here in NY it's about to be 70 degrees on Christmas Eve). We are here to dive into the deeper portion of the starting pitcher rankings, and with so many names to drill through, well those numbers are going to start to stretch apart.

There are so many metrics and things that people can attach themselves to when it comes to pitchers. Some owners are going to look at a pitcher's strikeouts, their walks, their groundball rate, the percentage of sliders thrown, the velocity of their changeup compared to their fastball, the amount of innings they threw last year, the projected defenders that should be backing him up, the ballpark they play in, and so on. Each ranker, each owner, each projection system will weigh each of these factors differently. There’s plenty to look at here, so let’s get back to it.

Be sure to also check out all of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles. We have rankings and tiers across all positions, for MLB prospects, and for dynasty/keeper leagues.

 

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher

Lance McCullers is an interesting guy to look at, as Kyle has him at 29, Brad at 34, he’s 41 for me, and Max buried him at 51. He didn’t have a conventional year by any means, being pulled up and thrown into the fire early in May (with great results). His first half ERA was 2.52, whereas his second half was 3.96. To be fair, most of the damage came in a horrible August start at Texas where he was shelled for six earned in one third of an inning. Outside of that he only had one start where he gave up more than three earned runs. He will now come into the year with a clear spot in the rotation and with an arm that has some innings under it.

Joe Ross is reportedly one of the top options to fill one of two vacant spots in the Nationals’ 2016 rotation, and it’s hard to imagine they don’t look his way. He’s got an electric fastball, pitches in the NL East, and looked just fine in his limited duty for the Nationals last year (5-5 with a 3.64 ERA in 76.2 IP). This must be why Max, Kyle, and I have him right around 40th in our rankings, but Brad has the haterade flowing, putting him at 89th. Perhaps he is the voice of reason here. Expectations might be too high for a guy who doesn’t have a spot in the rotation yet, for a guy who hasn’t pitched even half a year of major league ball yet. This ties in well with Steven Matz, who everyone but Brad has at around 40 as well (he has him at 64). You can certainly get a sense of our styles and leanings from our rankings.

Shelby Miller is another guy who has some separation between rankings. Max and I have him at 34 and 36, respectively, while Brad and Kyle peg him at 51 and 54. These rankings were made before Miller was traded to the Diamondbacks, but it’s interesting all the same regarding a guy who really grew last year. How much of it was genuine and how much regression should we expect? The answers from each of us are clearly reflected in the rankings. I can't speak for Brad and Kyle but I can see how the modest strikeout rate (7.50 K/9) and still too high walk rate (3.20 BB/9) is cause enough for some pause here (along with a 4.16 SIERA). I personally just really liked how he incorporated a cutter into his arsenal and saw his ground ball rate go from being in the high 30s all the way to 47.7%. Couple this with a jump in soft contact going from 16.4% to 21.3%. I think he still has room to grow, and right around 36 makes me feel as though the risk is worth the upside.

Who else might be fun enough to investigate here? Andrew Cashner is an interesting name, he has Brad and I pegging him right at 50, with Max high on him at 37 and Kyle low on him at 69. Let's look under the hood a bit at what might be driving the narratives. Okay obviously he finished with a 6-16 record, but we know that doesn't really speak to much. His strikeouts went up from a 6.79 K/9 (good) but his walks ballooned up as well (2.12 to a 3.22 BB/9...yikes). His BABIP went from .274 in 2014 to .330 in 2015 (it was .269 in 2013) and his strand rate was zapped, falling from 75.3% to 65.6%. So it looks like he certainly ate some bad luck, but he also created his own misfortune in loading the bases more. His FIP jumped from 3.09 in 2014 to 3.85 in 2015, and that's pretty much what I'm expecting for 2016. Cut down on those walks young man.

Taijuan Walker also draws the spotlight with Kyle ranking him at 44 and Brad pegging him at 70 (I have him at 56 and Max has him at 67). He had a healthy K/9 (8.33) and an acceptable BB/9 (2.12), but his HR/9 was a pretty darn high 1.33 (as evidenced by his xFIP being 3.82 versus a FIP/ERA of 4.07/4.56). He's young so there isn't a big sample size to draw on, but you've got to think that home run number stabilizes a bit, especially pitching in Seattle. He's got a vicious fastball and if he can improve on his changeup usage then that really be a solid "Year 2" leap for Walker.

Nathan Eovaldi has a range of 47-75, and while I'm checking in at 65 on him I'll probably bump him up a bit next month. The question with him is whether he can truly develop that splitter into an out pitch or not. I believe that introducing it really helped his soft contact rate go from 15.9% in 2014 all the way to 21.2% in 2015. His ground ball rate also went from 44.8% to 52.2%. That fastball is never going to really have a significant amount of movement, but if he can find something off speed to consistently pair with a fastball that he can locate and a catcher that can frame well in Brian McCann, he could look a lot more like his FIP of 3.42 from 2015 rather than his ERA of 4.20. Sort of like how we pointed out how removing Felix Hernandez's best start would result in a prettier picture, if you take away Eovaldi's worst start of the year (eight earned in two thirds of an inning against the Marlins) his ERA comes down to 3.75. The home park will never do him any favors, but I think he deserves some more love than he gets - though perhaps his stellar looking 14-3 record will prop him up in the wrong way.

There are tons of names to choose from, and if you have any further questions on anyone feel free to reach out to any of us via Twitter or catch us in the chat! As always, here are our complete rankings for reference:

 

Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball

Name Brad Max Kyle Nick Composite
Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1 1 1
Max Scherzer 3 2 2 2 2.25
Chris Sale 4 3 3 3 3.25
Jake Arrieta 2 4 4 4 3.5
Zack Greinke 5 5 9 5 6
Jose Fernandez 7 6 7 6 6.5
Jacob deGrom 10 8 5 7 7.5
David Price 9 7 6 8 7.5
Dallas Keuchel 6 9 11 9 8.75
Madison Bumgarner 11 11 10 10 10.5
Felix Hernandez 8 10 18 11 11.75
Gerrit Cole 14 14 8 13 12.25
Chris Archer 15 13 12 14 13.5
Corey Kluber 13 12 14 16 13.75
Noah Syndergaard 12 15 17 18 15.5
Matt Harvey 17 16 15 15 15.75
Stephen Strasburg 18 22 13 12 16.25
Carlos Carrasco 16 17 16 20 17.25
Jon Lester 19 21 19 25 21
Cole Hamels 24 24 21 19 22
Yu Darvish 25 19 22 22 22
Sonny Gray 22 18 24 24 22
Johnny Cueto 20 25 20 26 22.75
Carlos Martinez 21 27 23 23 23.5
Tyson Ross 23 23 26 32 26
Danny Salazar 27 26 25 27 26.25
Masahiro Tanaka 39 20 30 21 27.5
Francisco Liriano 26 30 28 29 28.25
Marcus Stroman 30 32 27 28 29.25
Jordan Zimmermann 28 28 33 34 30.75
Michael Wacha 37 29 35 30 32.75
Adam Wainwright 40 36 41 17 33.5
Luis Severino 29 31 43 33 34
Scott Kazmir 36 33 37 39 36.25
Jose Quintana 31 41 31 45 37
Michael Pineda 52 35 32 31 37.5
Garrett Richards 38 38 39 37 38
Jake Odorizzi 32 42 38 42 38.5
Lance McCullers 34 51 29 41 38.75
Patrick Corbin 43 46 34 35 39.5
Shelby Miller 51 34 54 36 43.75
John Lackey 33 48 56 44 45.25
Steven Matz 64 39 40 39 45.5
Gio Gonzalez 44 45 50 46 46.25
Alex Cobb 41 43 46 58 47
Justin Verlander 45 49 51 43 47
Hyun-Jin Ryu 42 44 45 59 47.5
Yordano Ventura 40 47 53 52 48
Jeff Samardzija 35 60 48 49 48
Collin McHugh 46 50 52 51 49.75
Clay Buchholz 53 53 49 48 50.75
Joe Ross 89 40 36 38 50.75
Jaime Garcia 48 52 64 40 51
Hisashi Iwakuma 55 55 42 53 51.25
Andrew Cashner 50 37 69 50 51.5
Raisel Iglesias 60 58 47 47 53
James Shields 61 41 58 54 53.5
Drew Smyly 66 46 57 55 56
Taijuan Walker 70 67 44 56 59.25
Eduardo Rodriguez 58 57 62 62 59.75
Kyle Hendricks 62 63 55 60 60
Brett Anderson 57 56 70 61 61
Wei-Yin Chen 54 54 72 64 61
Nathan Eovaldi 47 74 60 65 61.5
Robbie Ray 56 69 61 63 62.25
Carlos Rodon 71 68 59 57 63.75
Andrew Heaney 59 65 65 68 64.25
Julio Teheran 63 61 74 66 66
Jason Hammel 72 70 63 71 69
Aaron Nola 68 62 73 75 69.5
Jimmy Nelson 69 66 76 67 69.5
Anibal Sanchez 67 78 67 69 70.25
Marco Estrada 65 64 77 76 70.5
Ian Kennedy 77 75 78 72 75.5
Alex Wood 81 77 68 81 76.75
Anthony DeSclafani 86 91 66 70 78.25
Kevin Gausman 83 76 79 84 80.5
Henry Owens 88 71 91 74 81
Trevor Bauer 95 72 85 83 83.75
Mike Fiers 71 93 75 97 84
Mike Leake 84 80 87 88 84.75
Ervin Santana 80 86 99 80 86.25
Jesse Hahn 105 59 109 79 88
Derek Holland 73 85 97 100 88.75
Edinson Volquez 82 83 94 98 89.25
Erik Johnson 101 82 90 89 90.5
Taylor Jungmann 109 90 88 85 93
Mat Latos 112 95 82 86 93.75
Ubaldo Jimenez 90 98 93 95 94
Chris Heston 106 87 101 82 94
Jerad Eickhoff 96 99 95 87 94.25
James Paxton 85 102 96 96 94.75
Jake Peavy 111 96 84 93 96
Phil Hughes 110 89 103 92 98.5
J.A. Happ 92 71 78 ---
Erasmo Ramirez 94 80 73 ---
Nate Karns 79 83 91 ---
Wade Miley 74 97 92 ---
Kyle Gibson 75 100 99 ---
Tyler Duffey 78 81 111 ---
Yovani Gallardo 91 88 102 ---
Zack Wheeler 104 84 105 ---
Josh Tomlin 87 101 108 ---
Chris Tillman 92 103 115 ---
Rubby de la Rosa 100 100 104 ---
Danny Duffy 107 102 114 ---
Kris Medlen 73 89 ---
Drew Hutchison 81 77 ---
Rick Porcello 76 98 ---
Jesse Chavez 86 94 ---
Joe Kelly 79 110 ---
Daniel Norris 97 104 ---
Nicholas Tropeano 93 112 ---
Matt Shoemaker 94 113 ---
Jonathan Gray 99 108 ---
CC Sabathia 108 116 ---
Hector Santiago 114 119 ---
Wily Peralta 115 105 ---
Chase Anderson 113 107 ---
Matt Cain 90 ---
Jeremy Hellickson 98 ---
Matt Boyd 102 ---
R.A. Dickey 106 ---
Mike Foltynewicz 106 ---
Jorge de la Rosa 107 ---
Brett Oberholtzer 116 ---
Trevor May 117 ---
Doug Fister 118 ---
Martin Perez 120 ---

 

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