X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Ian Kennedy: 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Value

By Mwinog2777 (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

2015 In Review

Ian Kennedy? Seriously? You want me to buy the bust that somehow fleeced the Royals for $70 million and a draft pick as a sleeper?

Yes, I do. Kennedy's 9-15 record and 4.28 ERA last season don't look great, but his xFIP was a much more palatable 3.70. The biggest difference is a HR/FB of 17.2%, a ridiculously high number that dwarfs both his career 10.7% figure and his previous career worst of 13.2% from 2013. While leaving Petco is usually a bad thing for HR/FB, Kansas City's Kauffmann Stadium is one of the few destinations that could help more than his previous address. I expect a rate slightly under his career average for 2016.

Does your league count strikeouts? Kennedy is actually quite good at striking people out, posting a 24.4% K% last season after a 24.5% mark the year before. The strikeout surge came as a result of a 2014 change in pitch selection that saw him decrease his 2-seamer usage (36.1% in 2013 to 9.2% in 2014) and develop a knucklecurve. Last season, Kennedy continued this trend by further cutting the 2-seamer (thrown just 2.6% of the time) and completely abandoning the weak curve that the knucklecurve replaced.

By PITCHf/x, this leaves Kennedy with a very strong strikeout arsenal. His best offering is a changeup that boasts a fantastic 19.4% SwStr% and elite 47.5% O-Swing%. The aforementioned knucklecurve checks in with a 11.3% SwStr% and 37.9% O-Swing%. He only used his slider 8 percent of the time in 2015, but it had a 12.9% SwStr%. Even the fastball posted a solid whiff rate of 7.9%. The heat's 59.3% usage rate and 56.3% zone% even allowed Kennedy to cut down on his walks last season.

 

Editor's note: Read about more draft values and sleepers with our daily updated list. Make sure to also bookmark our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool consolidates all our staff ranks in one easy place - tiers, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty, keeper values, and more.

 

2016 Outlook

His new address also comes with one of the best defensive outfields in MLB history. Alex Gordon is elite by any defensive metric, and figures to be healthy all year. Lorenzo Cain is very good. Jarrod Dyson has been an elite glove in limited playing time, and figures to see the field more often this year. Kennedy has a career FB% of 40.7%, so elite outfielders should help him more than most. That's got to be good for his WHIP.

Kansas City's glovework is solid on the infield too, which should help mitigate some of the hard hit balls Kennedy allows. He is also backed by a strong bullpen that should be able to save his Ws for him. I think we can all agree the 2016 Royals will be better than the 2015 Padres despite what some projection systems say, so Kennedy figures to post a better record this year than last. Switching leagues isn't ideal, but all of the points in his favor should overcome it.

 

Conclusion

Yes, the Royals probably paid too much for Kennedy's services. However, he also signed up for a combination of ballpark and defense that figures to help the back of his baseball card almost as much as his wallet. The idea that the Royals overpaid him has made him dirt cheap in fantasy leagues, with an average FantasyPros ADP of 252 and no listing at all for Yahoo leagues. I think he's streamable in standard leagues and a must own in anything deeper. Don't let the bloated real world salary distract you from the fantasy value here.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Giannis Antetokounmpo7 mins ago

Probable For Saturday
Lonzo Ball9 mins ago

Remains Out For Saturday
Indianapolis Colts12 mins ago

Colts Sign Corey Ballentine To One-Year Deal On Friday
Trendon Watford16 mins ago

Will Miss Saturday's Game
Chet Holmgren19 mins ago

Resting Versus Detroit
Nicolas Claxton23 mins ago

Resting On Saturday
Pittsburgh Steelers25 mins ago

Brandin Echols Signs Two-Year Deal With Steelers
Josh Giddey28 mins ago

Not Likely To Play Saturday
Noah Clowney29 mins ago

To Remain Out Against Celtics
Kenny Yeboah31 mins ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Avery Williams35 mins ago

Signs With Eagles
Cam Thomas37 mins ago

Sits Out First Leg Of Back-To-Back Saturday
Jalen Williams37 mins ago

Still Out On Saturday
Coby White39 mins ago

Listed As Probable For Saturday
Kene Nwangwu43 mins ago

Jets Re-Sign Kene Nwangwu To One-Year Deal
Cody Martin47 mins ago

Cleared To Return Friday
Eli White51 mins ago

Appears Likely To Open Season In Utility Role
Trey Lyles54 mins ago

Misses Friday's Game Due To Back Soreness
Tommy Henry57 mins ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Grayson Allen1 hour ago

Not Playing Friday
Trey Jemison III1 hour ago

Unavailable Against Nuggets
Blake Walston1 hour ago

To Have Tommy John Surgery
Jacob Misiorowski1 hour ago

Brewers Reassign Jacob Misiorowski To Minor-League Camp
Gabe Vincent1 hour ago

Sits Out Friday's Game
Nick Richards1 hour ago

Sitting Out On Friday
Dorian Finney-Smith1 hour ago

Sidelined On Friday
Erik Swanson1 hour ago

Diagnosed With "Median Nerve Entrapment"
Domantas Sabonis1 hour ago

Back In Action On Friday
Shane Baz1 hour ago

Not Worried About Spring Training Results
Zeke Nnaji1 hour ago

Active On Friday
Christian Braun2 hours ago

Cleared To Face Lakers
Aaron Gordon2 hours ago

Returns To Nuggets Lineup Friday
Mason Adams3 hours ago

Exits With Elbow Injury
Will Klein3 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A Tacoma
Simi Fehoko3 hours ago

Signing With Cardinals
Kylen Granson3 hours ago

Headed To Philadelphia
Jared Shuster3 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Sterling Shepard3 hours ago

Remaining With Buccaneers
José Buttó3 hours ago

Jose Butto Dealing With Groin Injury
Cincinnati Bengals3 hours ago

Bengals Not Ruling Out Trey Hendrickson Extension
Wenceel Pérez4 hours ago

Wenceel Perez Receives Injection, Expected To Be Ready For Opening Day
Jose Trevino4 hours ago

Exits Early On Friday
Cooper Kupp4 hours ago

Signing With Seahawks
Jake Cronenworth4 hours ago

Not Expected To Play First Base
Lance McCullers Jr.4 hours ago

To Make Grapefruit League Debut On Tuesday
Giancarlo Stanton4 hours ago

Dealing With Minor Calf Injury
Jacob deGrom4 hours ago

Throws In Minor-League Game On Friday
Wilyer Abreu4 hours ago

To Make Spring Debut On Saturday, Could Be Ready For Opening Day
Grayson Rodriguez5 hours ago

Should Begin Throwing Progression Next Week
Karel Vejmelka5 hours ago

Makes Ninth Consecutive Start Friday
Kyle Wright5 hours ago

Hoping To Face Live Hitters Next Week
Dustin Wolf5 hours ago

Set To Face Avalanche Friday
Mikael Backlund5 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week
Alec Marsh5 hours ago

Continues To Build Up His Arm
Bobby Witt Jr.5 hours ago

Does Some Hitting On Friday
Sam Colangelo5 hours ago

Deemed Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Michael Bunting5 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Dallas Cowboys5 hours ago

Dante Fowler Jr. Heading Back To Cowboys
Andrei Svechnikov5 hours ago

Expected To Return Next Week
Nikolaj Ehlers5 hours ago

Good To Go Against Stars
Buffalo Bills5 hours ago

Larry Ogunjobi, Michael Hoecht Both Facing Six-Game PED Suspensions
Tee Higgins6 hours ago

Bengals Making Headway On Contracts For Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase
Ben Skowronek7 hours ago

Back With Steelers
Minnesota Vikings7 hours ago

Eric Wilson Returns To Minnesota
Pharaoh Brown7 hours ago

Heading To Miami
Minnesota Vikings7 hours ago

Justin Skule Signs With Vikings
Mackenzie Blackwood8 hours ago

Battling Illness, Not Starting On Friday
Rasmus Ristolainen8 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury
Lian Bichsel8 hours ago

Not Playing On Friday
Josh Norris8 hours ago

Undergoing Evaluation
JJ Peterka8 hours ago

Not Playing On Saturday
Neal Pionk9 hours ago

Viewed As Week-To-Week
Kareem Hunt9 hours ago

Chiefs Bring Back Kareem Hunt On One-Year Deal
Philadelphia Eagles9 hours ago

Eagles Open To Trading Bryce Huff
Cooper Kupp9 hours ago

Asking For $15 Million Per Year
Christian Kirk9 hours ago

Texans Restructure Christian Kirk's Contract
Roman Dolidze13 hours ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori13 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani14 hours ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos14 hours ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh14 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez14 hours ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson15 hours ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear15 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Quinton Byfield15 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Straight Game
Jesper Bratt15 hours ago

Posts Second Straight Three-Point Performance
Brendson Ribeiro15 hours ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Tristan Jarry15 hours ago

Picks Up Third Straight Victory
Diyar Nurgozhay15 hours ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Adin Hill15 hours ago

Shuts The Door On Blue Jackets On Thursday
MMA15 hours ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Sam Bennett16 hours ago

Strikes Twice In Victory
Brady Tkachuk16 hours ago

Suffers Minor Injury On Thursday
Kevin Vallejos16 hours ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Charlie Lindgren1 day ago

Gets The Nod Against Kings Thursday
Filip Gustavsson1 day ago

Starts Against Rangers Thursday
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard2 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips3 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler3 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter3 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa3 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre3 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young3 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim3 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas3 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele3 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy3 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA3 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman3 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee3 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Power-Steering Failure Foils Tyler Reddick's Bid For Potential Victory
William Byron4 days ago

Recovers From Being Trapped A Lap Down To Finish Sixth
Josh Berry4 days ago

Gives Wood Brothers Team Best Run Since 2021
Alex Pereira4 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 313
Magomed Ankalaev4 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion
Justin Gaethje5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Rafael Fiziev5 days ago

Loses Third Fight In A Row
Ignacio Bahamondes5 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 313
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Scores His Third Consecutive Victory Of The Season At Phoenix
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Strong Phoenix Performance Falls Short Of Victory
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Quietly Earns A Top-Five Finish At Phoenix
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Leaves Phoenix With His Best Finish At The Site Since 2016
Zane Smith5 days ago

Quietly Nabs His First Phoenix Top-10 Finish
Jalin Turner5 days ago

Retires After UFC 313 Loss
Iasmin Lucindo5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 313
Amanda Lemos5 days ago

Dominates At UFC 313
King Green5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC 313
Chase Elliott6 days ago

Is Chase Elliott Worth Rostering At Phoenix This Week For DFS?
Joey Logano6 days ago

Will Be A Top Contender To Win At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

Is Difficult to Recommend As A DFS Option
Carson Hocevar6 days ago

Is Not An Ideal Driver To Add To Phoenix DFS Lineups
Brad Keselowski6 days ago

Is A Solid DFS Choice For Phoenix Lineups
Austin Cindric6 days ago

Could Be Worth Using In Phoenix Tournament Lineups
Kyle Busch6 days ago

Should Fantasy Players Roster Kyle Busch At Phoenix?
Michael McDowell6 days ago

Is Michael McDowell Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ty Gibbs6 days ago

Is A DFS Recommendation Despite Inconsistent Track History At Phoenix
Austin Dillon6 days ago

Is Austin Dillon Worth Rostering In DFS For Phoenix This Week?
Cole Custer6 days ago

Is An Underrated DFS Value Pick For Phoenix Lineups
Tyler Reddick6 days ago

DFS Value Likely Hinges On How Much He Leads
Chase Briscoe6 days ago

Despite Strong Phoenix Record, Chase Briscoe Qualifies Inexplicably Poorly
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF