X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2016 Bust Candidates: NL Starting Pitchers to Avoid

The wait is finally over – spring training is in full swing. Of course, here at RotoBaller we’ve been cranking out tons of preseason content for some time now. We might be a little obsessed with baseball ‘round these parts. But that’s okay, because so are you!

And what better way to celebrate the advent of draft season than to profile potential breakouts and busts? Let’s continue to take a closer look at the guys who are most likely to delight, or disappoint, fantasy owners in 2016.

Be sure to also head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We recently launched this handy new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more! It's all in one place, and all free.

 

2016 NL Starting Pitcher Bust Candidates

Shelby Miller

Miller put together a solid bounceback season in 2015, regaining some of the strikeouts he’d lost during his sophomore slump and cutting his home run rate in half. Most of his success came in the first half of the season, as he entered the All-Star break with a 2.38 ERA. However, the dominant story was his hard luck in the wins column. On May 17, Miller tossed a two-hit shutout of the Marlins to move to 5-1 on the season. He didn’t get another win until the season’s final day, despite allowing two runs or fewer in 13 of the intervening 24 starts. Miller lost 16 (!) consecutive decisions, tying him for the ninth-longest streak in baseball history.

A big part of that streak was the ineptitude of the Braves, but Miller also struggled as the season wore on. His walk rate spiked and he barely kept his second-half ERA under 4.00. Being traded to the Diamondbacks should help him win a few more games, but he’ll also have to contend with a park that’s much less forgiving. There are plenty of pitchers being drafted later who offer more upside for a similar level of risk – Raisel Iglesias, Luis Severino, and Carlos Rodon, just to name a few.

 

James Shields

By many measures, Shields has been remarkably consistent over the years. Since becoming a fixture in the Devil Rays’ rotation back in in 2007, he’s pitched at least 200 innings each year. Only twice during that span has his ERA or FIP been more than half a run removed from his career marks, and his xFIP has been between 3.24 and 3.87 every time out. You could expect a good, if not great, strikeout rate, excellent control, and a few too many home runs. It’s little wonder that in Steamer’s 2015 projections, Shields’s projection had the highest reliability score of any pitcher.

That’s why they play the games, as they say. Shields had a season that could only be described as “bizarre.” Moving to the National League and Petco Park, nobody would have expected career-worst marks in walk and homer rate. This would have been odd enough in itself, but Shields also posted by far the best strikeout rate and the highest strand rate of his career.

For whatever reason, Shields dramatically altered his approach in 2015, pitching out of the zone with much greater frequency. The results were decidedly mixed, and typically these changes are made as a result of diminished stuff, fatigue, or injury. Shields has been a workhorse, but he’s entering his age 34 season and lost a tick and a half on his fastball last year. Fantasy owners don’t seem too concerned judging by his ADP. Perhaps they should be.

 

Zack Greinke

In most seasons, going 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA would guarantee a Cy Young Award, and probably by unanimous vote. As it happened, there was a strong case to be made that Greinke wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team. Only two pitchers had a larger differential between their ERA and FIP than Greinke did; the sub-2.00 ERA was due largely to an insanely low .229 BABIP and insanely high 86.5% strand rate. Both numbers figure to regress in 2016, it’s just a matter of how much.

There’s also the question of how much Greinke will be impacted by changing teams. The Diamondbacks outscored the Dodgers last season and were a significantly better defensive team by both UZR and DRS, but Chase Field is much more of a hitters’ park than Dodger Stadium.

Greinke is a great pitcher and has been for some time. Just don’t pay as though last year was the new normal.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

J.K. Dobbins53 mins ago

Questionable To Return On Monday
Jonathan Kuminga1 hour ago

Inactive On Monday Night
Keldon Johnson1 hour ago

Listed Probable For Tuesday Night
Daniel Jones1 hour ago

Won't Join The Raiders
Jalen Green1 hour ago

Questionable For Tuesday Night Against Timberwolves
Dennis Schröder2 hours ago

Dennis Schroder Available To Play On Monday Night Against Warriors
Malik Monk2 hours ago

Officially Active On Monday, Won't Have Minutes Restriction
Miles McBride2 hours ago

Active On Monday Night Against Nuggets
Karl-Anthony Towns2 hours ago

Available For Knicks On Monday Against Nuggets
Peyton Watson2 hours ago

Officially Active For Monday Night Game Against Knicks
Nicolas Claxton2 hours ago

Officially Ruled Out For Monday Night
Aaron Gordon2 hours ago

Now Without Timetable For Return
Jordan Poole3 hours ago

Is Questionable For Tuesday
Talen Horton-Tucker3 hours ago

Probable For Tuesday
Patrick Williams3 hours ago

Will Be Sidelined On Tuesday
Scoot Henderson3 hours ago

Sitting Out Monday
Julian Phillips3 hours ago

Probable For Tuesday
Deandre Ayton3 hours ago

Remains Sidelined
Baltimore Ravens3 hours ago

Roquan Smith Out On Monday Night
Lonzo Ball3 hours ago

Doubtful For Tuesday
Jerami Grant3 hours ago

To Play On Monday
Ladd McConkey3 hours ago

Officially Active On Monday Night
Norman Powell3 hours ago

Misses A Fourth Consecutive Game
Noah Clowney3 hours ago

Won't Play Monday
Mo Bamba3 hours ago

Sits On Monday
Jake Ferguson4 hours ago

Looking Like A "Long Shot" To Play On Thursday
Ladd McConkey4 hours ago

Expected To Play On Monday Night
Patrik Laine4 hours ago

Practices In Regular Jersey
Mason McTavish5 hours ago

Returns To Ducks Lineup Monday
Chris Kreider5 hours ago

Unavailable Versus Blues
Artem Zub5 hours ago

Out With Fractured Foot
TB5 hours ago

Nicholas Paul To Remain Out For At Least One More Week
Pyotr Kochetkov5 hours ago

Lands In Concussion Protocol
Kirill Kaprizov5 hours ago

Considered A Game-Time Call For Monday
Romeo Doubs5 hours ago

Picks Up DNP On Monday
Brock Purdy6 hours ago

Does "Light Throwing" On Monday
Amon-Ra St. Brown6 hours ago

Listed As Non-Participant At Practice
David Montgomery6 hours ago

Listed As DNP On Monday
Austin Ekeler7 hours ago

In The Concussion Protocol
Aaron Rodgers7 hours ago

Remains The Starter Ahead Of Week 13
Devin Williams8 hours ago

Brewers Plan To Hang Onto Devin Williams For Now
8 hours ago

Blue Jays Could Make Aggressive Play For Anthony Santander
Alec Bohm8 hours ago

Phillies, White Sox Have Discussed Alec Bohm, Garrett Crochet
8 hours ago

Mets The Clear-Cut Favorites To Land Juan Soto
Yusei Kikuchi8 hours ago

Signs Three-Year Deal With Angels
Baltimore Ravens9 hours ago

Roquan Smith Unlikely To Play On Monday Night
Baker Mayfield10 hours ago

Buccaneers Say Baker Mayfield Is "Good" After Suffering Stinger
Yan Xiaonan10 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tabatha Ricci10 hours ago

Drops Decision At UFC Macau
Trevor Lawrence10 hours ago

Will Practice On Monday
Muslim Salikhov10 hours ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC Macau
Josh Downs10 hours ago

Week-To-Week With Shoulder Injury
Song Kenan10 hours ago

2-2 In Last Four Fights After UFC Macau Loss
Tommy Devito10 hours ago

Tommy DeVito To Start On Thanksgiving "If He's Healthy"
Zhang Mingyang11 hours ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC Macau
Keenan Allen11 hours ago

Delivers Big Performance Despite Bears Week 12 Loss
DJ Moore11 hours ago

Plays Well In Week 12 Loss, Shows Versatility
Ozzy Diaz11 hours ago

Gets TKO'd At UFC Macau
A.J. Brown13 hours ago

Snaps Scoreless Streak In Week 12 Win
Trey McBride13 hours ago

Delivers Standout Performance In Week 12 Loss
Jack Roslovic14 hours ago

Continues To See Success With Hurricanes
Alex Lyon14 hours ago

Starts For Red Wings On Monday
Mikhail Sergachev14 hours ago

Collects An Assist In Sunday's Loss
Logan Cooley14 hours ago

Leads Utah's Offense Sunday
William Nylander14 hours ago

Enjoys Another Multi-Point Outing
Mitchell Marner14 hours ago

Extends Multi-Point Streak With Pair Of Goals
Anthony Cirelli1 day ago

Riding Career-Best Goal Streak
Seth Jarvis1 day ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Karel Vejmelka1 day ago

Gets Another Start On Sunday
Joseph Woll1 day ago

Faces Utah Sunday
Pyotr Kochetkov1 day ago

Dealing With An Upper-Body Injury
Dylan Samberg1 day ago

Placed On Injured Reserve With Broken Foot
Kirill Kaprizov1 day ago

Reportedly Not Dealing With Serious Injury
Ilya Sorokin2 days ago

Leads The Way On Saturday
Volkan Oezdemir2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Macau
MMA2 days ago

Carlos Uberg Extends Win Streak At UFC Macau
MMA2 days ago

Cong Wang Gets Submitted In Upset Fashion At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes2 days ago

Pulls Off Massive Upset At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo2 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Macau
Petr Yan2 days ago

Gets Dominant Win At UFC Macau
3 days ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
3 days ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
3 days ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski3 days ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
3 days ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May3 days ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Brady Singer3 days ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India3 days ago

Traded To Kansas City
Shohei Ohtani3 days ago

In Early Stages Of Recovery From Shoulder Surgery
Tabatha Ricci3 days ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Yan Xiaonan3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Muslim Salikhov3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Chris Sale3 days ago

To Have Normal Offseason
Garrett Crochet3 days ago

Drawing Plenty Of Interest
Song Kenan3 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Zhang Mingyang3 days ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Ozzy Diaz3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
Carlos Ulberg4 days ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir4 days ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes4 days ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani4 days ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge4 days ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Cody Bellinger4 days ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
4 days ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale5 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat5 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English5 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin5 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy5 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg5 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim5 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy5 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole5 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP