X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2016 Bust Candidates: AL Outfielders to Avoid

The wait is finally over – spring training is in full swing. And what better way to celebrate the advent of draft season than to profile potential breakouts and busts?

If you've been following my ongoing series, I've been taking a look at both NL and AL players who may breakout, bounce back, bust or regress in 2016. Today I will take a look at three American League outfielders who may disappoint for fantasy baseball owners.

Be sure to also head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We recently launched this handy new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more! It's all in one place, and all free.

2016 AL Outfielder Bust Candidates

Jacoby Ellsbury

Remember 2011, when Ellsbury was an absolute monster? He hit .321/.376/.522, with 32 homers, 39 steals, and 224 R+RBI. The power predictably turned out to be a mirage; he’s hit 36 homers combined in the four seasons since. You probably don’t need me to tell you that. But Ellsbury has also seen his stolen base totals decline from 52 to 39 to 21 over the last three seasons. He’s hit above .271 just once since that out of nowhere elite season. Last season, he posted the lowest hard-hit rate and lowest contact rate of his career.

Most importantly, he’s continued to have trouble staying healthy. Ellsbury has missed a third of his team’s games going back to 2010. There’s no reason to expect him to avoid injury in his age-32 season, and his best tool – his speed – has pretty clearly been sapped by injury and age. Yet he’s the 26th outfielder off the board on average in drafts so far, and our staff rankings have him 24th at the position. Seems like a recipe for disappointment.

 

Carlos Gomez

Like Ellsbury, Gomez was hobbled by injury last season and will be on the wrong side of 30 this season. He hasn’t had nearly as much trouble staying healthy, but he shows the same troubling downward trends in key areas. Gomez’s homers, HR/FB%, ISO, average fly ball distance, stolen bases and attempts, and hard-hit rate have all declined since 2013.

Given what appears to simultaneous declines in both power and speed, Gomez can no longer be expected to produce as his did during his peak, when he averaged 22 homers and 37 steals per season. He might benefit from a better team and park context, but it seems likely that the Astros will bat him in the lower half of the order, which would further depress his stolen base totals. At this point, 20/20 looks more like ceiling than floor for him. Adjust your valuations accordingly.

 

Corey Dickerson

Owners who had Dickerson in keeper or dynasty leagues were on cloud nine after his breakout 2014. Unfortunately, since then there’s been nothing but bad news. First, Dickerson spent most of 2015 battling plantar fasciitis and managed to play in only 65 games. To make matters worse, the Rockies kept not putting him on the disabled list, so many owners were stuck in limbo for weeks at a time and forced to tie up an active roster slot on a guy who wasn’t playing.

Then in January, he was traded to Tampa Bay. Home/road splits should be taken with a grain of salt in most cases, but when the home park in question is Coors Field, they carry more weight. The splits for Dickerson, like with many hitters who have called Coors home, aren’t pretty:

Career AVG OPS HR R RBI
Home .355 1.085 24 84 78
Road .249 .695 15 52 46

To be fair, Coors also tends to have a negative impact on a hitter’s road numbers. We’ve seen this borne out by the continued success of players like Matt Holliday and Dexter Fowler in recent years after moving on to other teams. Tropicana Field is a rather dramatic departure, but all of the other parks in Dickerson’s new division are hitter-friendly. Perhaps more importantly, Dickerson will be able to DH regularly, which may help him avoid continued injury problems.

That said, Dickerson’s production still figures to take some sort of hit from leaving the thin air of Denver. Add to that his risk of injury and difficulties hitting southpaws, and it’s hard to recommend him with confidence.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Robert Williams III20 mins ago

Won't Return On Monday Night
J.K. Dobbins1 hour ago

Questionable To Return On Monday
Jonathan Kuminga1 hour ago

Inactive On Monday Night
Keldon Johnson1 hour ago

Listed Probable For Tuesday Night
Daniel Jones1 hour ago

Won't Join The Raiders
Jalen Green2 hours ago

Questionable For Tuesday Night Against Timberwolves
Dennis Schröder2 hours ago

Dennis Schroder Available To Play On Monday Night Against Warriors
Malik Monk2 hours ago

Officially Active On Monday, Won't Have Minutes Restriction
Miles McBride2 hours ago

Active On Monday Night Against Nuggets
Karl-Anthony Towns2 hours ago

Available For Knicks On Monday Against Nuggets
Peyton Watson2 hours ago

Officially Active For Monday Night Game Against Knicks
Nicolas Claxton2 hours ago

Officially Ruled Out For Monday Night
Aaron Gordon3 hours ago

Now Without Timetable For Return
Jordan Poole3 hours ago

Is Questionable For Tuesday
Talen Horton-Tucker3 hours ago

Probable For Tuesday
Patrick Williams3 hours ago

Will Be Sidelined On Tuesday
Scoot Henderson3 hours ago

Sitting Out Monday
Julian Phillips3 hours ago

Probable For Tuesday
Deandre Ayton3 hours ago

Remains Sidelined
Baltimore Ravens3 hours ago

Roquan Smith Out On Monday Night
Lonzo Ball3 hours ago

Doubtful For Tuesday
Jerami Grant3 hours ago

To Play On Monday
Ladd McConkey4 hours ago

Officially Active On Monday Night
Norman Powell4 hours ago

Misses A Fourth Consecutive Game
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Won't Play Monday
Jake Ferguson4 hours ago

Looking Like A "Long Shot" To Play On Thursday
Ladd McConkey5 hours ago

Expected To Play On Monday Night
Patrik Laine5 hours ago

Practices In Regular Jersey
Mason McTavish5 hours ago

Returns To Ducks Lineup Monday
Chris Kreider5 hours ago

Unavailable Versus Blues
Artem Zub5 hours ago

Out With Fractured Foot
TB5 hours ago

Nicholas Paul To Remain Out For At Least One More Week
Pyotr Kochetkov5 hours ago

Lands In Concussion Protocol
Kirill Kaprizov6 hours ago

Considered A Game-Time Call For Monday
Romeo Doubs6 hours ago

Picks Up DNP On Monday
Brock Purdy6 hours ago

Does "Light Throwing" On Monday
Amon-Ra St. Brown6 hours ago

Listed As Non-Participant At Practice
David Montgomery6 hours ago

Listed As DNP On Monday
Austin Ekeler7 hours ago

In The Concussion Protocol
Aaron Rodgers7 hours ago

Remains The Starter Ahead Of Week 13
Devin Williams8 hours ago

Brewers Plan To Hang Onto Devin Williams For Now
8 hours ago

Blue Jays Could Make Aggressive Play For Anthony Santander
Alec Bohm8 hours ago

Phillies, White Sox Have Discussed Alec Bohm, Garrett Crochet
9 hours ago

Mets The Clear-Cut Favorites To Land Juan Soto
Yusei Kikuchi9 hours ago

Signs Three-Year Deal With Angels
Baltimore Ravens9 hours ago

Roquan Smith Unlikely To Play On Monday Night
Baker Mayfield10 hours ago

Buccaneers Say Baker Mayfield Is "Good" After Suffering Stinger
Yan Xiaonan10 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tabatha Ricci10 hours ago

Drops Decision At UFC Macau
Trevor Lawrence10 hours ago

Will Practice On Monday
Muslim Salikhov11 hours ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC Macau
Josh Downs11 hours ago

Week-To-Week With Shoulder Injury
Song Kenan11 hours ago

2-2 In Last Four Fights After UFC Macau Loss
Tommy Devito11 hours ago

Tommy DeVito To Start On Thanksgiving "If He's Healthy"
Zhang Mingyang11 hours ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC Macau
Keenan Allen11 hours ago

Delivers Big Performance Despite Bears Week 12 Loss
DJ Moore11 hours ago

Plays Well In Week 12 Loss, Shows Versatility
Ozzy Diaz11 hours ago

Gets TKO'd At UFC Macau
A.J. Brown13 hours ago

Snaps Scoreless Streak In Week 12 Win
Trey McBride13 hours ago

Delivers Standout Performance In Week 12 Loss
Jack Roslovic14 hours ago

Continues To See Success With Hurricanes
Alex Lyon14 hours ago

Starts For Red Wings On Monday
Mikhail Sergachev14 hours ago

Collects An Assist In Sunday's Loss
Logan Cooley14 hours ago

Leads Utah's Offense Sunday
William Nylander14 hours ago

Enjoys Another Multi-Point Outing
Mitchell Marner15 hours ago

Extends Multi-Point Streak With Pair Of Goals
Anthony Cirelli1 day ago

Riding Career-Best Goal Streak
Seth Jarvis1 day ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Karel Vejmelka1 day ago

Gets Another Start On Sunday
Joseph Woll1 day ago

Faces Utah Sunday
Pyotr Kochetkov1 day ago

Dealing With An Upper-Body Injury
Dylan Samberg1 day ago

Placed On Injured Reserve With Broken Foot
Kirill Kaprizov1 day ago

Reportedly Not Dealing With Serious Injury
Ilya Sorokin2 days ago

Leads The Way On Saturday
Volkan Oezdemir2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Macau
MMA2 days ago

Carlos Uberg Extends Win Streak At UFC Macau
MMA2 days ago

Cong Wang Gets Submitted In Upset Fashion At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes2 days ago

Pulls Off Massive Upset At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo2 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Macau
Petr Yan2 days ago

Gets Dominant Win At UFC Macau
3 days ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
3 days ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
3 days ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski3 days ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
3 days ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May3 days ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Brady Singer3 days ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India3 days ago

Traded To Kansas City
Shohei Ohtani3 days ago

In Early Stages Of Recovery From Shoulder Surgery
Tabatha Ricci3 days ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Yan Xiaonan3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Muslim Salikhov3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Chris Sale3 days ago

To Have Normal Offseason
Garrett Crochet3 days ago

Drawing Plenty Of Interest
Song Kenan3 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Zhang Mingyang3 days ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Ozzy Diaz3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
Carlos Ulberg4 days ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir4 days ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes4 days ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani4 days ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge4 days ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Cody Bellinger4 days ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
4 days ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale5 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat5 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English5 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin5 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy5 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg5 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim5 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy5 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole5 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP