Prior to the season, I was preparing to write an article about a deep league outfield sleeper and had narrowed my options down to two players. The one I chose to write about was Michael Saunders, who ultimately played in only nine games thanks to a lingering knee injury. The other candidate? David Peralta. Whoops.
Hindsight is 20/20, and it’s not hard to see the thought process that went into that decision. Saunders had more of a track record, a clearer path to playing time, and was moving to a powerful lineup in a friendly park. Peralta had posted a solid .286/.320/.450 line with eight home runs and six stolen bases in 88 games as a rookie for the Diamondbacks in 2014. However, Arizona’s outfield was pretty crowded and Peralta, a converted pitcher, had a limited minor league sample and was old for those levels anyway.
Peralta ended up being one of the most under-the-radar breakouts in fantasy, hitting .312/.371/.522 with 17 homers and nine steals as he played his way into the starting job in left field. Only four other hitters managed to hit .300 while also producing an ISO of .200 or better – Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, and Nelson Cruz. Pretty good company for a guy who used to be a pitcher. Can we expect a repeat performance?
Examining his peripherals, there are no major red flags. A .368 BABIP is on the high side, but Peralta hits a lot of line drives and makes hard contact with regularity, particularly to the opposite field. He’s also fast, as demonstrated by his 19 triples in just under 800 at-bats at the major league level. So the skills are there to maintain an above-average mark.
Peralta made significant strides in the area of plate discipline last season, trimming his O-Swing% and nearly doubling his walk rate. The strikeouts went up a bit as well, but at just under 21 percent, they weren’t enough to bite into his value.
The home run output we saw in 2015 is probably his ceiling, as Peralta isn’t much of a fly ball hitter. His 26.6 FB% was 122nd out of 143 qualified batters. An eight-point jump in his HR/FB% is about the only aspect of his breakout that might raise an eyebrow, but even giving back half of that gain would only cost him a couple of bombs. Either way, Peralta’s gap power and speed should allow him to continue racking up extra-base hits.
Speaking of speed, there would seem to be untapped upside there. Peralta has 15 swipes in 22 attempts over his first two seasons. The Diamondbacks clearly aren’t afraid to give the green light, as they attempted the most steals of any team in baseball last season. Peralta may be held back a bit if he continues to see the majority of his at-bats in the cleanup spot, but he has the tools to increase his SB total. Another year of experience should only help.
A.J. Pollock’s coming out party got a lot more attention, but Peralta shouldn’t be overlooked by fantasy owners in 2016. He’s a good bet for another season of solid contribution across the board.
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