The Miami Dolphins managed a steal in the fifth round of the 2015 NFL Draft with Jay Ajayi, a running back out of Boise State. He was projected as a second-round talent, but lingering concerns about knee problems caused him to fall to the Dolphins in the fifth.
A torn ACL in 2011 apparently continued to vex NFL scouts, and an extraordinarily heavy collegiate workload didn’t help matters. However, Lamar Miller is in a contract year, and may very well end up leaving the Dolphins at the end of the 2015 season—Ajayi could be a ready-made replacement if he can hone some of his less-refined skills and stay healthy.
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Ajayi was probably the most well-rounded of the running backs in the 2015 draft. At 6’0”, 221 lbs, he has the build of a feature back, and has the skill set to match. The English-born former soccer player combines speed, power and agility to find space, make people miss, and punish those who don’t. His soccer background yielded great balance that has translated well in football, and an ability to make would-be tacklers miss. He changes speed particularly well when attempting to find space, and has plenty of burst once he finds daylight. Watch him shake and break contact:
More impressive than his elusiveness is the power that he generates. He has outstanding lower body drive which, combined with his balance, allows him to break tackles while consistently driving forward. Watching any amount of game footage on Ajayi lets you see how he is always gaining an extra yard or two at the end of any run, whether it’s driving through an opponent or spinning and twisting to avoid one. He even has some room on his frame for a bit extra bulk, and I could see him having a future as a complete power back like Frank Gore or Demarco Murray. The final factor that makes him such a valuable running back is his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. He has outstanding hands and is just as good after the catch as he is when carrying the ball.
Besides the injury history, there are several other weaknesses in Ajayi’s profile. The biggest issue he is currently dealing with is pass protection. Dolphins BP of football operations Mike Tannenbaum recently stated that if Ajayi could not pass protect, then he would not see the field, “…I don’t care how talented his is between the tackles…” This can be corrected, as he has the body type to be a successful pass-blocker, but he will need to learn quickly if he is to see playing time any time in 2015. He also has a somewhat troubling history with ball security, having fumbled 11 times in 597 carries in college (seven of which came in his senior season alone). This is another of those issues that can be fixed with practice, but it needs to happen quickly.
Ultimately I don’t see Ajayi having any immediate fantasy impact. The Dolphins are going to feature a reportedly bulkier Lamar Miller in 2015, and may very well run him into the ground if they have no plans on re-signing him in the offseason. That leaves the door open for Ajayi to become the lead back as soon as 2016, assuming his knees hold up and he fine-tunes his game. In a rookie draft I’d be looking at Ajayi after the of the obvious immediate impact rookies like Todd Gurley and Amari Cooper, but before the fliers of this class like Devin Funchess and Philip Dorsett.
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