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Leading up to the 2015 NFL Season, Rotoballer's fantasy football expert Frankie Soler will be looking at the offseason's biggest winners and losers. In the first installment of the series, we take a look at Saints QB Drew Brees.
It’s pretty amazing what the addition or subtraction of one player can do for another player’s fantasy stock in the NFL. But what happens when you’re talking about two drastic personnel changes? Or better yet, in the case of Drew Brees, what about three? What you get is one of the most dependable fantasy quarterbacks in the last decade becoming one of the riskier players at the position for 2015.
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The New Orleans Saints started their makeover by trading their greatest pass-catching threat, tight end Jimmy Graham, to the Seattle Seahawks for an upgrade at center. That alone would have been enough to drop Brees’ draft stock but the Saints weren’t done just yet. They then sent wide receiver Kenny Stills to the Miami Dolphins. New Orleans still wasn’t finished with their offensive overhaul as they signed free agent running back C.J. Spiller to the roster. While it’s fair to think that the combination of Drew Brees and Head Coach Sean Payton should be one of the most reliable tandems as it pertains to fantasy, it’s impossible to ignore the drastic changes in offensive personnel and philosophy within the span of a month. Trading Graham is one thing in itself but the moves regarding Stills and Spiller suggest we may be looking at an entirely different Saints offense than we’re used to.
Losing Jimmy Graham essentially takes away an enormous chunk of the Saints’ Red Zone production. Over the last four seasons, Graham has accounted for 37 touchdowns within the opposing team’s 20-yard line. That just goes to show you how dependent the Saints are on Graham when they're throwing the ball in condensed space. Graham has also accounted for 4,396 receiving yards and has led all Saints receivers in that category twice. Granted, Drew Brees has found ways to maintain solid stats when faced with personnel changes before but you don’t just shrug off losing one of the best tight ends in the league, especially when it’s clear how much the team utilizes him near the goal line.
As it pertains to Kenny Stills, that move seems to go hand-in-hand with the signing of C.J. Spiller. Both suggest that the team is looking to develop into a more run-centric offense as Brees begins to show his age. That leaves the Saints down to two established receivers (Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston), an emerging Mark Ingram, and an additional rusher and short pass catcher in C.J. Spiller. It’s not like the team is suddenly going to become a Rex Ryan ground-and-pound offense but all three moves suggest that they don’t intend to air it out as much as we’re used to.
Drew Brees has been a lock as a top five fantasy QB for a long time but after all of these personnel changes, it appears he might actually be closer to the back half of the top 10. You don’t just lose two of your biggest weapons, add another running back, and expect to continue slinging the ball with the same results. Throw in the emergence of other QBs like Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson and I think it’s safe to say letting someone else snag Brees early while loading up on WRs/RBs is the safer play in this years fantasy drafts. After this offseason, I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting Drew Brees before Matt Ryan in a standard sized league which would make him about a 4th to 5th round pick.
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